Premier League 2021-22 (10 Viewers)

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MikeM

Footballing Hipster celebrating 4th place with Tuz
Sep 21, 2008
12,477
Jorginho should thank Bernaguti for smashing his pens in the net, something Jorginho couldn't do.
 
Jun 6, 2015
11,387
Bruno has thus far missed only two penalties for ManU and I think his conversion rate for penalties is at around 95% currently so quite a bit better than Ronaldo's. I think Ole already hinted that Bruno will keep taking them, for now at least. Ronaldo does take them over Bruno for Portugal so can't see him be happy being second choice taker for ManU, especially if Bruno now starts missing them with more regularity.
 

Fred

Senior Member
Oct 2, 2003
41,113
In that list, Ronaldo has shot more PKs than the first 3 combined. Not a fair comparison with such a gap in sample size
Exactly. Its not a fair comparison at all. The bigger the sample size the more probability of regression to the mean. All those players who are above Ronaldo on that list and have taken significantly less penalties, will have their success rate lower for sure if they took 100+.
 

zizinho

Senior Member
Apr 14, 2013
51,815
Bruno has thus far missed only two penalties for ManU and I think his conversion rate for penalties is at around 95% currently so quite a bit better than Ronaldo's. I think Ole already hinted that Bruno will keep taking them, for now at least. Ronaldo does take them over Bruno for Portugal so can't see him be happy being second choice taker for ManU, especially if Bruno now starts missing them with more regularity.
 
Jun 6, 2015
11,387
Exactly. Its not a fair comparison at all. The bigger the sample size the more probability of regression to the mean. All those players who are above Ronaldo on that list and have taken significantly less penalties, will have their success rate lower for sure if they took 100+.
30-40 penalties is plenty big enough of a sample size. That's 3-6 seasons worth of penalties for most regular penalty takers. You get a pretty decent picture on a players ability to convert them during such a long period.

You can of course also always reduce the size of Ronaldo's sample to that ≈40 penalty mark. For example we could only look at his time at Juventus and his conversion rate would still be around 85% with around 40 penalties taken.

The assumption that for some reason the conversion rate of players like Lewa and co suddenly just nosedives is based on absolutely nothing. They've taken penalties already for years consistently converting them at those rates. Of course it's possible that for some players it would come down just like it's possible that it goes up for some players.

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Not the same thing though. We have a controlled situation with penalties i.e. everyone kicks from exactly the same spot without any interference from the defence. In basketball the position of the shot and the defenders greatly affect the difficulty of the shot.
 
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zizinho

Senior Member
Apr 14, 2013
51,815
30-40 penalties is plenty big enough of a sample size. That's 3-6 seasons worth of penalties for most regular penalty takers. You get a pretty decent picture on a players ability to convert them during such a long period.

You can of course also always reduce the size of Ronaldo's sample to that ≈40 penalty mark. For example we could only look at his time at Juventus and his conversion rate would still be around 85% with around 40 penalties taken.

The assumption that for some reason the conversion rate of players like Lewa and co suddenly just nosedives is based on absolutely nothing. They've taken penalties already for years consistently converting them at those rates. Of course it's possible that for some players it would come down just like it's possible that it goes up for some players.

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Not the same thing though. We have a controlled situation with penalties i.e. everyone kicks from exactly the same spot without any interference from the defence. In basketball the position of the shot and the defenders greatly affect the difficulty of the shot.
Yes and one guy took how many over a 15-20 year span where he developed and evolved a lot as a player both technically and mentally. Also, not every penalty weights the same/the shooter doesn't carry the sake responsibility for every PK. That's why comparing with simple stats isn't exactly smart. I for one know who I'd give to shoot between the two
 
Jun 6, 2015
11,387
Yes and one guy took how many over a 15-20 year span where he developed and evolved a lot as a player both technically and mentally. Also, not every penalty weights the same/the shooter doesn't carry the sake responsibility for every PK. That's why comparing with simple stats isn't exactly smart. I for one know who I'd give to shoot between the two
The stat simply shows which players have converted the highest percentage of the penalties they've taken. You can of course take other not so easily quantifiable factors in to consideration when choosing who you feel should take penalties. I don't even really disagree with the notion that Ronaldo should take them for United. He's elite in taking them, as the numbers show, there are just some players who are more likely to score from a penalty (at least on average).
 

zizinho

Senior Member
Apr 14, 2013
51,815
The stat simply shows which players have converted the highest percentage of the penalties they've taken. You can of course take other not so easily quantifiable factors in to consideration when choosing who you feel should take penalties. I don't even really disagree with the notion that Ronaldo should take them for United. He's elite in taking them, as the numbers show, there are just some players who are more likely to score from a penalty (at least on average).
I know what the stat shows, I'm saying it's not relevant when comparing who's the more safe taker. Ronaldo is the safest bet to convert one for them
 
Jun 6, 2015
11,387
I know what the stat shows, I'm saying it's not relevant when comparing who's the more safe taker. Ronaldo is the safest bet to convert one for them
I think they'll be fine either way. Both of them have great penalty taking records. From squad harmony perspective it might be beneficial for Ronaldo to take them. We all know he's much happier when he scores goals so Ronaldo taking penalties and scoring them might have additional benefits outside of penalties.
 

campionesidd

Senior Member
Mar 16, 2013
15,357
30-40 penalties is plenty big enough of a sample size. That's 3-6 seasons worth of penalties for most regular penalty takers. You get a pretty decent picture on a players ability to convert them during such a long period.

You can of course also always reduce the size of Ronaldo's sample to that ≈40 penalty mark. For example we could only look at his time at Juventus and his conversion rate would still be around 85% with around 40 penalties taken.

The assumption that for some reason the conversion rate of players like Lewa and co suddenly just nosedives is based on absolutely nothing. They've taken penalties already for years consistently converting them at those rates. Of course it's possible that for some players it would come down just like it's possible that it goes up for some players.

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Not the same thing though. We have a controlled situation with penalties i.e. everyone kicks from exactly the same spot without any interference from the defence. In basketball the position of the shot and the defenders greatly affect the difficulty of the shot.
:agree:
If anything, Ronaldo’s penalty conversion rate has improved with age and experience (interestingly his free kicks haven’t)
 

zizinho

Senior Member
Apr 14, 2013
51,815
I think they'll be fine either way. Both of them have great penalty taking records. From squad harmony perspective it might be beneficial for Ronaldo to take them. We all know he's much happier when he scores goals so Ronaldo taking penalties and scoring them might have additional benefits outside of penalties.
I think they will be fine, because regardless of who takes them, they aren't winning EPL/CL, so it don't matter that much. I'm just saying who will more likely score them

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So zizi is a Penaldo fanboy now as well?
I just recognize greatness, unlike some of you
 
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