I don't know much about US politics, however I think Trump's going to lose. Him being disapproved by important figures is getting traction (Mattis, now Powell) and he's dividing his country more by the day.
In 2016 few people knew what kind of president he'd be, and a lot of people judged him to be the lesser evil compared to Hillary and he barely won. Provided Biden doesn't fuck up and even if he's senile, should he shut up he'll be winning this