His formation is garbage, and i'm not referring to him using morata in it, thats about the only thing that makes sense, but the fact we wouldnt use mandzukic. Allow me to explain.
Everyone always looks at Guardiola's team and mesmerises just about everything except the key part. The central axis.
Guardiola's phylosophy, is to keep the team extremely wide, and forcing them not to help the centre, but to assume and rely on them winning the duels and freeing themselves. He puts a rather good zonal pressing to back it up in case that player does lose the ball, its difficult to gain from it.
As a huge fan, you might find it odd to hear it from me, but Allegri massively disappointed me in the first leg. He is supposed to be good at anticipating Guardiola's style, and completely missed the ball with his tactics. And formation.
Forget about the wide players, about the forward runs from the am line, from the potent striker. Its all about that centre axis. Guardiola changed his formation over the years, but the phylosophy remains the same. Wingers stay very wide, and the central players must make it to the final third on their own, the opponent will either keep check of the wings and face trough balls to the forward and penetrating run of one of the am's, or they'll stay compact, in wich case they'll do two passes and then cross it to the completely free winger on the other side, who doubles up with either the penetrating am, or striker, again outnumbering the cb's.
If you are going to sit back and allow the central midfield to pass it all the way to 5 meters from the penalty box, you will get shafted. They'll do that, and keep passing back and forth, untill there is some space between fulback and centreback, they'll switch to the wide player who's cutting inside, and an am or the striker will go between the fullback and centreback, the other am roams (mostly muller) and you concede. Our first goal, that muller position, is standard.
How do you play against it ? Well, this is where you miss vidal. You need to put huge zonal aggression in the center. talking about 30 meters diameter, and from your box to 10 meters behind the midfield. You need 2 players consistantly pressing the cm's close so they cant just pass it to your box and pick out the inside cutting winger or penetrating am. You need 1 midfielder and 1 centreback (ideal with a 3cb defence) to cover the space behind the hunting players. You need 1 striker to drop off and continiousl harrass the midfielder who falls back deep. You need very good wingbacks who have huge stamina and put up a fight, so you can track their wingers quickly enough.
Spain in 2012 played a sorta similar style, Italy in the first game played 3-5-2 and very high pressure, with alot of duel power centrally, making it hard for spain to combine trough and reach wide players. Now spain didnt have a true forward, you cant do this vs bayern cause they'll start trying to get lewandowski or an inside winger trough the offside trap. You need to sit deeper, but keep enormous pressure in that central box. dont sit on your backline, move it up abit, just far enough that its not too easy to play it over the defence. Allegri, should fucking know this. He deployed a similar tactic versus barcelona (guardiola's) a few years ago. Sit deep, have 2 players and a forward press, rotate who presses, and you get trouble.
Juve will have significantly increased chances with the return of Chiellini and especially sandro. Sturaro must start
Buffon
Barzagli, bonucci, chiellini
Cuadrado, sturaro, marchisio, pogba, sandro
dybala, mandzukic
See, bayern has a godlike offence. So if you just attack that, you'll get arsenal'd. You need to counter their gameplan first, and move from there.
Cuadrado and Sandro will have to work very hard, be quick enough to pick up robben and costa
Dybala needs to continiously pressure the defenders and Mandzukic aswel, but mandzukic needs to keep pressing vidal, because they'll play it back if they cant go forward. Pogba and Sturaro needs to put huge zonal pressure in the center.
Marchisio needs to cover the space behind the cm's, and chiellini or barzagli needs to step out in case something gets trough. both cuadrado and sandro need to keep relatively tight, but race to jockey the wide players when they get a pass.
When we recover the ball, the closest wingback must sprint forward immediatly, 2 cm's back it up and both strikers aswel. Take a yellow if they can recounter.
This is the only way to play against bayern. If you play offensive, they'll beat you with superior offensive. If you sit back, they'll remind you they are the single best team at murdering teams that sit back.
I really hope Allegri doesnt fail again.
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The final 30 minutes of the game, Juventus was putting huge pressure down the center, and their wingers got tired (costa cause omfg cuadrado, and robben cause robben). As a consequence, bayern had difficulties building, and we were winning the duels (key to this).
Now you cant start with pressure that high, Robben, lewandowski,Muller and Costa will have a field day on counters, but you sit reasonably deep and put that very aggression in the center. Win duels in the center, press the cm that drops deep, play cuads and sandro behind their wingbacks and outnumber them.
in general we have a lot of players who prefer to play more central.
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