Mafia 2020 - Find the carrier (11 Viewers)

[Quetzalcoatl]

that's basically what i said earlier in the morning


Even if Kyle chooses the person to vote for and it turns to be a C - he still should have (given the J and L contacted him) greater % chance to find a G than any of us.

We should all commit to going with Kyle's choice before he announces it. That way no one can back out if he picks a G buddy

 

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[Mr Chocolate]

We should all commit to going with Kyle's choice before he announces it. That way no one can back out if he picks a G buddy

i'm happy to follow this plan

 

[Tomice]

Cerval is in Jail

 

[Völler]

Ok, lots of stuff to catch up on!


Yesterday my three main suspects were piotrr, Cerval and campionesidd. Since then, I'm beginning to get more and more convinced that campionesidd is just a clueless C (mainly due to him wanting the D to investigate Kyle...). Instead my third main suspect is Quetzalcoatl, mainly due to him refusing to vote yesterday despite him being active and posting. It didn't make sense for me that he preferred no lynch, but refused to actually vote for it.

Klin (at the time a confirmed C - he may very well be recruited now) made some really good points regarding piotrr:

Well, not much, but here are my reasons;

1. He entertained Mr Chocolate's statement about us discussing who the D should investigate.



2. He then went on with suggesting the D should investigate Osman after he got jailed. That would imply that Osman is a C if piotrr is a G and they would want to recruit him.



3. He was lurking in the thread and did not post until circa 13:00 CET.

Of these three, I'm more inclined to vote on piotrr, and I will do that for now (while I get up to speed on the posts). Cerval is being very restrained in his posts, but I don't really know him as a poster, and he hasn't played mafia before (afaik), so I'm more inclined to give him the benefit of a doubt.

 

[piotrr]

I supported Alen yesterday as one of the few and now continue his ideas but yeah, let's lynch me.

 

[ALC]

Protect who?

each other... aka the four special roles

 

[Völler]

Of course you would be against it.

Yeah make a list of suspects based off of gut feelings... that'll get us a list of 9 out of the 11 people here.

We cant even use yesterday's voting as a guide, it tells us nothing. At least we know Kyle's motive with his choice, even if he may be wrong. We know at least he's not trying to protect anyone.

You got Cerval, he's "suspicious"? I got you, ALC, Voller... Someone reading this is gonna have me as a suspect, somehow. How are we gonna go anywhere like that?

If you're a G you love it when there are 3, 4, 5 options for lynching... it's too easy to make sure no G is lynched.

there are 8 Cs now. If the lawyer and jailer contact Kyle, he will know 5 out of the 8. Meaning he has to guess between 3 Cs and 3 Gs... a 50% chance. The rest of us know 3 out of 8 - 5 Cs vs 3 Gs... a 38% chance of finding a G.

I repeat, the Gs are happy if we all are going after different people. Its easy for them to hide like that.

If Kyle wrongly picks a C, then we lose a C like we would anyway. If he rightly picks a G, there is no escaping for them

Essentially it boils down to the question of whether or not you think the chance of us lynching a G is higher than 50%. Yes, we don't have any sure-fire information, and yes, the G's can hide better when the votes are spread out, but the posts from yesterday aren't useless. There are plenty of stuff to pick up on imo. We should obviously follow Kyle when he has intel (and the jailer should definitely have contacted him by now), but I'm not sure I think a 50/50 is our best shot. Also, if everyone follows Kyle's lead, and he doesn't get a G, we will have two dead C's tonight, and no useful information from today. That will basically mean a lost game.

that's basically what i said earlier in the morning

Earlier in the morning you said we should vote no lynch? That's not the same thing as what Quetzalcoatl is suggesting (if I'm understanding him correctly).

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did you not see my previous posts?

she claimed to have a work phone call at 10 pm so she couldn't make it in time for the voting. then she was here and in the thread, just didn't vote. i think another G is telling her to lay low and voting for klin would've made her look too suspicious.

Meh, it's Bezzy. I guess I can follow your reasoning, but I don't think she would have stayed quiet if she actually did have time to post.

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I supported Alen yesterday as one of the few and now continue his ideas but yeah, let's lynch me.

Imo your posts were off yesterday. I can better follow your line of reasoning today, but you had some odd suggestions yesterday. You even agreed with Klin's points ffs.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Essentially it boils down to the question of whether or not you think the chance of us lynching a G is higher than 50%. Yes, we don't have any sure-fire information, and yes, the G's can hide better when the votes are spread out, but the posts from yesterday aren't useless. There are plenty of stuff to pick up on imo. We should obviously follow Kyle when he has intel (and the jailer should definitely have contacted him by now), but I'm not sure I think a 50/50 is our best shot. Also, if everyone follows Kyle's lead, and he doesn't get a G, we will have two dead C's tonight, and no useful information from today. That will basically mean a lost game.



Earlier in the morning you said we should vote no lynch? That's not the same thing as what Quetzalcoatl is suggesting (if I'm understanding him correctly).

If we lose 2 Cs, how does it mean the game is lost? It will be 6C, 3G. And if we go on random hunches, then we were gonna probably lose 2 Cs anyway.

I think we stand a better chance this way for two reasons I repeat:
1) Kyle knows more Cs and has better odds of guessing right
2) When voting is random, it is too easy for the Gs to hide behind that and manipulate the votes to save themselves. It is almost impossible at this point for the Cs to correctly guess and agree upon a G by random, and for the Gs to just let it happen

"but the posts from yesterday aren't useless" - well the fact that you think I'm a suspect based on that proves to me otherwise

 

[piotrr]

Essentially it boils down to the question of whether or not you think the chance of us lynching a G is higher than 50%. Yes, we don't have any sure-fire information, and yes, the G's can hide better when the votes are spread out, but the posts from yesterday aren't useless. There are plenty of stuff to pick up on imo. We should obviously follow Kyle when he has intel (and the jailer should definitely have contacted him by now), but I'm not sure I think a 50/50 is our best shot. Also, if everyone follows Kyle's lead, and he doesn't get a G, we will have two dead C's tonight, and no useful information from today. That will basically mean a lost game.

Wow. So 50% is not good enough for you but voting based on gut feeling and sixth sense (which is useless as you are suggesting to vote me) is fine? The fuck you on about?

By voting on a person selected by 'the people' we have 3/10 = 30% chance of finding a G. Not to mention we can start lynching the D by accident and that the lynch can be orchestrated by the Gs.
By voting on a person selected by Kyle, we have 50% of finding a G.

Also, if everyone follows Kyle's lead, and he doesn't get a G, we will have two dead C's tonight, and no useful information from today. That will basically mean a lost game.

There is a greater chance of lynching a C by not following Kyle and this should be enough for you.

 

[campionesidd]

Hopefully the L and J have contacted Kyle. We should wait for his inputs.

 

[piotrr]

Imo your posts were off yesterday. I can better follow your line of reasoning today, but you had some odd suggestions yesterday. You even agreed with Klin's points ffs.

I was trying to be sarcastic as his points were as good as his showings in haxball.

 

[Klin]

I'm catching up on the day. Is Quetz around?

 

[Völler]

If we lose 2 Cs, how does it mean the game is lost? It will be 6C, 3G. And if we go on random hunches, then we were gonna probably lose 2 Cs anyway.

You're not taking the recruited G into the account. Or are you playing dumb on purpose? Obviously, then it would still be 5C vs 4G and technically not lost, but it would be almost impossible for the Cs to win then.

2) When voting is random, it is too easy for the Gs to hide behind that and manipulate the votes to save themselves. It is almost impossible at this point for the Cs to correctly guess and agree upon a G by random, and for the Gs to just let it happen

Yes, it's possible for the Gs to hide and manipulate to save themselves in a regular vote, but the Gs moving votes to save themselves is also what reveals who they are.

By voting on a person selected by 'the people' we have 3/10 = 30% chance of finding a G. Not to mention we can start lynching the D by accident and that the lynch can be orchestrated by the Gs.

By voting on a person selected by the people we have 3/9 = 33% (I'm obviously not counting myself as a possible G) chance of finding a G. That is, however, only if we pretend we didn't learn anything from yesterday. I still think the information from the game so far gets us above the the 50%.

 

[ALC]

I'm catching up on the day. Is Quetz around?

How's the tourism industry in Malta doing?

 

[Klin]

PSA

So after some pondering i have decided to announce that I am in contact with a person claiming to be the detective. This person says that Klin was investigated and is a C.

for the new players, Klin being a C should take the focus off him tomorrow but it does not make him trustworthy as basic Cs can still be recruited.

Give us 2 names today we should go for. No Lynch is a disgrace and as we can see today, it got us nowhere.

Kyle being the only certain C, he has to decide who he has a hunch on and everyone has to follow.

That's the only way we have a chance of getting a G. He could ending be wrong and we lynch a C, but we all have nothing to go on and its al still a guess. If we leave it open for everyone to go after whoever they feel like it would be easy for the Gs to spread their votes and ensure that no G is touched.

Unless we all agree to vote for the same person, whoever Kyle picks, we will have zero chance of getting a G tonight. They simply will not allow it

Does that make sense to you all?

@Kyle say your pick and I will follow, unless it's me of course

We should at least spread out our votes between 2 candidates. With only 1 candidate, it will only help us if he turns out to be a G with some luck.

Your voting behavior yesterday was super weird btw.

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How's the tourism industry in Malta doing?

What tourism industry?

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We started the game with 9 Cs (including the D, BG, Jailer and Lawyer) and 3 Gs.

We lost Alen yesterday which makes us 8:3. The number of players in this game suggests that the Gs would want to recruit early to close this game immediately, so it is safe to assume they have recruited already. Obviously I know that I wasn't recruited, but you absolutely have no reason to believe me and should only trust Kyle at this stage (who I hope has been contacted by the Jailer and Lawyer). This makes us 7:4.

Voting No Lynch today is a no go today. It tells us nothing. Absolutely nothing. As I suggested to Kyle, he should provide us with his top 2 candidates we should split our votes to today. Of course, we still run the risk of losing 2 Cs tonight, which would mean we're down to 5:4. But if we manage to lynch a G, we'd be down to 6:3 and with some luck and some common sense, the D gets it right today and we will have a chance.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

I'm catching up on the day. Is Quetz around?

Hola

You're not taking the recruited G into the account. Or are you playing dumb on purpose? Obviously, then it would still be 5C vs 4G and technically not lost, but it would be almost impossible for the Cs to win then.

Right, 5 v 4. Well, we need to get a G tonight. What will give us the best odds of doing that?

Yes, it's possible for the Gs to hide and manipulate to save themselves in a regular vote, but the Gs moving votes to save themselves is also what reveals who they are.

If 8 people are voting for 3 or 4 people, it's impossible to distinguish between Gs saving themselves and clueless Cs.

We should at least spread out our votes between 2 candidates. With only 1 candidate, it will only help us if he turns out to be a G with some luck.

That could be a good idea, but the more people Kyle names as potential suspects the more that narrows down who the D is, which we don't want.

Your voting behavior yesterday was super weird btw.

Weird maybe, but what's that got to do with Cs and Gs?

 

[piotrr]

Give us 2 names today we should go for.

@Kyle do not give us 2 names.

Worst case scenario (someone else than Klin has been recruited) the Gs already have a 1:5 chance at whacking the D.
Last thing we want is increasing those chances by Kyle providing 2 names that for sure are not the D.

 

[X Æ A-12]

Just woke up. will need to read the last few pages.

 

[Klin]

Hola


Right, 5 v 4. Well, we need to get a G tonight. What will give us the best odds of doing that?

If 8 people are voting for 3 or 4 people, it's impossible to distinguish between Gs saving themselves and clueless Cs.




That could be a good idea, but the more people Kyle names as potential suspects the more that narrows down who the D is, which we don't want.



Weird maybe, but what's that got to do with Cs and Gs?

@Kyle do not give us 2 names.

Worst case scenario (someone else than Klin has been recruited) the Gs already have a 1:5 chance at whacking the D.
Last thing we want is increasing those chances by Kyle providing 2 names that for sure are not the D.

You're right that 2 names increase the odds of the Gs finding out who the D is by 8%, but with only one candidate, it's just hoping for the best IMO.

Let's think of another idea.

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Ironically I was hoping Kyle will nominate both @piotrr and @Quetzalcoatl.

 

[X Æ A-12]

A person claiming to be the jailer has contacted me