Mafia 2015.5 || 'Tuz: The Beginning (25 Viewers)

[Alen]

Great job. I honestly think the last scenario is the likeliest. Would Alen really go out and save Matt in such a risky way if he was a fellow G? I honestly doubt it.

I would have if we were both Gs. Better lynch a C and then worry about the next day, than let a fellow G die just so I won't be exposed.

 

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[ALC]

Lmao @ hoori saying we should go for me.

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You need to get me out of your mind, girl.

 

[Alen]

All permutations:

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is G ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.

Two interesting things so far:
1) Alen and G cannot be both Gs (because look at the four remaining options below in bold, in none of which Alen and X are both Gs).
2) Alen is G ONLY if X is a C and Matt is a G (so Matt, if you are a C, you should be sure as hell that Alen is a C )

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is C ~ I rule this out cause I think if X was a G, no lynch would have been used to save his ass.
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ This means that Matt's fate was actually determined by a C in the last minute, which doesn't make any sense so I tend to rule this out.

These two are imo the only possible options:
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is G
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is C

The analysis is good, but it's valid only if at least 3 Gs were online. You're overestimating the "no lynch" possibility. It was indeed the most logical one if X is a G, but not often players do the most logical thing.
Lots of players were offline at the time: Kate, Salvo, X, Bezzy, Zacheryah, Tomice, RUS. That's 1/3 of the participants. We'll have to assume that all of them are Cs, or at most one is a G, for your analysis to be taken seriously.

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

ALC is a real g,

Spoiler

the penislvanian giant asshole i meant

 

[king Ale]

How is that?

As I have said countless times, I doubt RUS is a G. His indifferent persona and the fact that his invisibility filter isn't on just doesn't make me suspicious of him and all. No way RUS would bother turning the filter on and off all the time.

Fr3sh lame reason to vote X makes him suspicious, but he's Fr3sh, and he could be fooling around.

ALC is suspicious because of his late arrival and two votes in a short time. Him voting for RUS only to change it to X shortly afterwards was weird. It could be him trying to save Matt from lynching, but then, Matt only had two votes at the time.

Precisely because we won't lose much by killing either of them but we may be able to have a better understanding of the voting pattern around the deadline. I'm more inclined to go for either Fresh or ALC []

---

Personally, I really want to go after Maddy tomorrow. If he's a G, it could explain why Ocelot got whacked since he was the first to really put pressure on Maddy. Of course, that alone is a far-fetched theory. But looking at Maddy, and how he plays, he just seems to lack reasonable explanations for his actions.

20 min before deadline he decides to vote for RUS. There are zero votes on RUS at that time. And nothing suggest other votes would follow.


He doesn't change his vote after I tell him about the fact doesn't have the invisibility on. Unlike me he thinks RUS would bother turning the invisibility filter on and off:


Shortly after he says he's confident RUS is a C, but votes on him despite that:


I suggest him voting on another loose cannon like Fr3sh, who actually picked up heat earlier. But he doesn't care about the fact that his vote won't matter at all.



In addition to that, Ocelot might have a point about this:


My point is that Maddy isn't making any sense in anything he has done the whole day. Bad reasoning for his votes and little interest in who's actually getting the most number of votes. Very unlike how Maddy normally plays. Add Ocelot's suspicion and the fact Ocelot got whacked to that.

I don't think killing Ocelot is an attempt to silence his campaign against Maddy. That's too good to be true But I share your sentiments about him overall. I dislike his nonchalant attitude in this game. Even when I was looking back at last posts before the deadline, it was painful reading his posts, it was as though he was talking to himself (or you, eh ) in isolation. He seemed t be deliberately trying to not involve himself. But I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that he's a g.

 

[Völler]

Precisely because we won't lose much by killing either of them but we may be able to have a better understanding of the voting pattern around the deadline. I'm more inclined to go for either Fresh or ALC []

If Fr3sh or ALC turns out to be a C, we are getting jackshit, however. I'd be more inclined to lynch Matt, Alen or Fred if we want to get smarter.

 

[ALC]

Precisely because we won't lose much by killing either of them but we may be able to have a better understanding of the voting pattern around the deadline. I'm more inclined to go for either Fresh or ALC []
.

I appreciate the kisses, sweetheart but how would a vote for me really tell you anything? I voted for RUS and then changed it to X right after.

 

[GordoDeCentral]

I appreciate the kisses, sweetheart but how would a vote for me really tell you anything? I voted for RUS and then changed it to X right after.

yeah if anything you and fr3sh are most likely Cs

 

[Völler]

I appreciate the kisses, sweetheart but how would a vote for me really tell you anything? I voted for RUS and then changed it to X right after.

30 mins between the votes, to be fair.

Also, aren't you going to do something about the sexual tension between you two?

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yeah if anything you and fr3sh are most likely Cs

Who are your main suspects?

 

[ALC]

@Völler I'm about to take a shower so I might rub one off

 

[Völler]

@Völler I'm about to take a shower so I might rub one off

:voller:

 

[GordoDeCentral]

30 mins between the votes, to be fair.

Also, aren't you going to do something about the sexual tension between you two?

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Who are your main suspects?

Alen, klin, fred in that order

 

[Völler]

Alen, klin, fred in that order

Why Klin? What are your thoughts about Matt?

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Alright here we go: since i'm bored and crazy, this is a quick review of what happened around the deadline. I had high hopes i'd be able to find some clues but it's a lot more messed up than i imagined. It may sound as though i'm coding gibberish but it's worth looking into:

30 mins to deadline: X has three votes and I feel he has to be a c cause nobody seems to be saving him. There is one vote for no lynch. I decide to vote no lynch and try to convince a couple more cs to follow me, reason being a combination of (i don't suspect anyone in particular & i'm not really sure if x is a C so i don't want to sacrifice a C only because i feel X is a C and i like to keep him in the game). I'm also thinking: if X is a G, i'm giving his mates a very good option in no lynch: it's safe, justifiable and is gonna save their g buddy. ALC comes and votes X. So, 30 mins to the deadline and: X (4: Alen, Rus, Fresh, ALC) - Matt (2: Radekas, Voller) - No lynch (2: woody, hoori).

Fred: {If x was a g sm1 would have saved him by now.}
Fred: {no lynch.}
X (4), no lynch (3), matt (2)

Alen: {Rus}
Alen: {I don't have anyone to vote for. I'm sorry. If it's not RUS, I'll have to go back to X, or perhaps Radekas/Ocelot.}
X (3), no lynch (3), matt (2)

10 mins left:
Matt: {Hey I really don't want X to get lynched but for my own security X.}
X (4: Rus, Fresh, ALC, Matt) - no lynch (3: Hoori, woody, fred) - Matt (Voller, Radekas)

9 mins left:
Fred: {I'm thinking of doing a really ballsy move}

Voller:{ Maddy}
X (4), no lynch (3), Matt (1)

Klin: {Matt}
X (4), No lynch (3), Matt (2)

Fred: {Guys should i save x by voting for matt?
Quick answrrs pls}

8 mins left:
Matt: {No lynch}
X (3: ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (4: Hoori, woody, fred, matt), Matt (2: radekas, Klin)

7 mins left:
Fred: {Shit jj doesnt have enough votes anymore. I wanna save, how?? Suggestions}

6 mins left:
Woody: {Matt}
X (3: ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, matt), Matt (3: woody, radekas, Klin)

Ocelot: {I'd be willing to go Jihadi John before no lynch.}

5 mins left:
Klin: {Go for Matt. @Fred you too. Save X and don't go for no lynch.}

Matt: {Jeez wtf, why me?
Fuck it X [his move here makes sense].}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (2: Hoori, fred), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Alen (to Klin): {Are you saving X?}

Fred: {Guys should I vote jj, quick answers please!!!!!}

4 mins left:
Kyle: {No lynch for now.}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

3 mins left:
Klin: {Save X. Go for Matt.}

Ocelot: {No fucking no lynch man, Jihadi John}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

2 mins left:
Fred to Alen: {No lynch or jj I'll lsn to whatever you say}

Alen: {Why Matt?
Are you fuckers saving X? }

1 min left:
Voller: {As I said, I'm changing back to Jihadi John since nobody is voting for Maddy. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he's more likely to be a G than X.}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (2: Hoori, Kyle), Matt (5: Voller, ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Alen: {It's crazy how you grouped yourselves to save X}

Fred:{ X}

Alen: {Hmmm
X}
X (6: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus, Alen, Fred), No lynch (2: Hoori, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Voting is over:
Fred: {Jihadi John}

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First of all, Fred isn't as suspicious as i was thinking. Only one thing is bugging me a little: he's referring to Matt mostly as JJ. Then when time is pressing and he's got to be quick to change his vote, he cares enough to actually write down "Jihadi John". That was weird.

That said, i believe what we can figure from what happened around the deadline is that X is a C. Reason is, Gs DID HAVE the no lynch option. When a G is in danger, the biggest priority is to save him/her, not to make sure a civilian is gone. If X was a g and gs were trying to save him, why did they have to vote Matt (a civilian if X is a g) instead of conveniently voting no lynch? That's because they did not want a no lynch cause X and then most probably Matt were both Cs.

Shiet, what a post I'll analyse it and return with my findings tomorrow evening. Maybe

 

[king Ale]

The analysis is good, but it's valid only if at least 3 Gs were online. You're overestimating the "no lynch" possibility. It was indeed the most logical one if X is a G, but not often players do the most logical thing.
Lots of players were offline at the time: Kate, Salvo, X, Bezzy, Zacheryah, Tomice, RUS. That's 1/3 of the participants. We'll have to assume that all of them are Cs, or at most one is a G, for your analysis to be taken seriously.

I'm using the no lynch possibility to show that X cannot be a g, because 30 mins to the deadline there were two votes on no lynch and it was a very safe option for gs to jump on, but nobody was willing to do so. And i can't believe the other three gs (bar X) were not present to save him.

 

[Völler]

Shiet, what a post I'll analyse it and return with my findings tomorrow evening. Maybe

 

[GordoDeCentral]

Why Klin? What are your thoughts about Matt?

his campaign to save me would have been goodG insurance, i dont know why matt got the heat in the first place, but i have not seen anything to make him a prime suspect

 

[king Ale]

his campaign to save me would have been goodG insurance, i dont know why matt got the heat in the first place, but i have not seen anything to make him a prime suspect

Nope, not if Matt had been killed and appeared to be a C. The way he was really pushing for Matt was going to risk him in case Matt was the lynched c.

 

[Alen]

his campaign to save me would have been goodG insurance, i dont know why matt got the heat in the first place, but i have not seen anything to make him a prime suspect

Matt got the heat because he voted Radekas for no good reason. That resulted with a return vote from Radekas and after that a whole bunch attached themselves to this vote. I think Voller immediately and then the others.
Woody even repped people to tell them to vote for Matt and save you.

Are we seriously gonna pretend that this was normal and that I am the suspicious one for calling this BS with my vote?

 

[GordoDeCentral]

Nope, not if Matt had been killed and appeared to be a C. The way he was really pushing for Matt was going to risk him in case Matt was the lynched c.

unless he knew i was the one getting lynched