It's a Nice Day for a Tuz Wedding (14 Viewers)

[Quetzalcoatl]

FFS how will you lose the D?

You can keep him for days and lose him on day 3 only if you're incredibly unlucky.

Or you can lose him on day 2, or day 3, or day 4.

Reveal the D and they'll know he'll be protected, so they go for someone else. There's more than a 1 in 3 chance that it will be one of the BG or jailer in the first 2 days. If one of them are killed, the D is gone next day or day after. Meanwhile, the only benefit the Cs have got in 1 G and after that 1st day, there will be a lot of fruitless looking until the D gets killed and the Cs will be a lost flock lynching randomly.

 

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[X Æ A-12]

At least, so far, the D has been silent. Hopefully they are competent enough to not fall for this.

 

[Bezzy]

Felt a sleep woke up too many pages

Alen is right about the D
Sab also
Klinny :rip: should had married me
Lowlife :wth:

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

 

[Alen]

Or you can lose him on day 2, or day 3, or day 4.

Reveal the D and they'll know he'll be protected, so they go for someone else. There's more than a 1 in 3 chance that it will be one of the BG or jailer in the first 2 days. If one of them are killed, the D is gone next day or day after. Meanwhile, the only benefit the Cs have got in 1 G and after that 1st day, there will be a lot of fruitless looking until the D gets killed and the Cs will be a lost flock lynching randomly.

Take tonight for example. Lets say that you were the D and revealed to the rest that I was an investigated G. I was gonna do everything to put doubts on you and that was gonna be my only chance to save my ass. But I was probably gonna fail. The jailer puts you in jail. The BG protects himself.

The Gs know that the D and the BG are protected so they fish for the jailer. They have a 1:11 chance to get him (out of the 12 civilians they only know the D). That's small chance, isn't it?

But lets say they got super lucky and got the jailer. A new jailer gets that role.
On the 2nd day the BG protects you.
Now they again need to fish for the new jailer, not for the BG.
They have a 1:10 chance to get him today.

If they succeed then you get a 3rd day of investigation, which is quite enough.
But in order to succeed they will need to beat twice in a row an 1:11 and 1:10 chances.

Do you think that's possible?
If they fail only once, the D gets a 4th day of investigation. 4 investigations are enough to win a game, even if in 3 of them he gets a C because he will already know those 3 investigated Cs, he will know the BG and he will know the jailer.

 

[X Æ A-12]

Felt a sleep woke up too many pages

Alen is right about the D
Sab also
Klinny :rip: should had married me
Lowlife :wth:

How so?

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Take tonight for example. Lets say that you were the D and revealed to the rest that I was an investigated G. I was gonna do everything to put doubts on you and that was gonna be my only chance to save my ass. But I was probably gonna fail. The jailer puts you in jail. The BG protects himself.

The Gs know that the D and the BG are protected so they fish for the jailer. They have a 1:11 chance to get him (out of the 12 civilians they only know the D). That's small chance, isn't it?

But lets say they got super lucky and got the jailer. A new jailer gets that role.
On the 2nd day the BG protects you.
Now they again need to fish for the new jailer, not for the BG.
They have a 1:10 chance to get him today.

If they succeed then you get a 3rd day of investigation, which is quite enough.
But in order to succeed they will need to beat twice in a row an 1:11 and 1:10 chances.

Do you think that's possible?
If they fail only once, the D gets a 4th day of investigation. 4 investigations are enough to win a game, even if in 3 of them he gets a C because he will already know those 3 investigated Cs, he will know the BG and he will know the jailer.

That will require perfect communication and co-ordination, and as you know, there isn't that right now because of the lack of inactivity by half the posters here and 3 didn't even vote. If the BG or jailer was one of those people, the D would've been vulnerable today if he listened to you.

And besides that, if he was protected on the 1st day and neither of the BG or jailer were whacked, the chance more than doubles the nest day since the Gs have one less to pick from and neither are protected as the BG is protecting the D and the jailer can't jail himself or the BG in this case.

 

[Trequartista]

 

[Alen]

That will require perfect communication and co-ordination, and as you know, there isn't that right now because of the lack of inactivity by half the posters here and 3 didn't even vote. If the BG or jailer was one of those people, the D would've been vulnerable today if he listened to you.

And besides that, if he was protected on the 1st day and neither of the BG or jailer were whacked, the chance more than doubles the nest day since the Gs have one less to pick from and neither are protected as the BG is protecting the D and the jailer can't jail himself or the BG in this case.

There is a risk in everything. Of course there is.

The Gs wouldn't have known though today that the BG isn't here so they weren't gonna take a chance on the D. They would have fished for the BG if the jailer didn't jail anyone tonight.

The only tricky part about revealing your role if you're the D is to convince the others that you're not lying. That's the only reason why the D could decide not to reveal himself after discovering a G. I had the same problem. I knew that nobody will trust me that I'm the D when I investigated Fred and I decided to take a risk and find a C to do it for me. I took a risk with Hoori and it worked.
But I had no doubts at all that it must be revealed that a G was investigated.

To conclude, I think that the D either didn't investigate or investigated a C. I don't think the D is capable of hiding it if he investigates a G. He would have revealed it willingly or unwillingly. Fred did it unwillingly when he once discovered that I'm a G. He tried not to reveal it to the rest but he couldn't watch me lying and he started accusing me which made it clear to the Gs that he's the D. It's hard to find a G and keep it a secret. That's why I believe that a C was investigated or noone was investigated at all.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

If the jailer jails the BG, can the BG still protect the D?

 

[Alen]

If the jailer jails the BG, can the BG still protect the D?

Nope.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Okay, so on the day after the jailer jails the D, the BG can protect the D, but the jailer and the BG will be unprotected. But you may be right that it's low risk... You good confused me, bitch.

 

[Salvo]

Klin is a weird choice, the D should investigate Janna, she has been suss from the start.

 

[Alen]

Okay, so on the day after the jailer jails the D, the BG can protect the D, but the jailer and the BG will be unprotected. But you may be right that it's low risk... You good confused me, bitch.

Unless Fred is the D, then the jailer can jail the D tomorrow while the BG can protect himself. Then the next day the BG protects the D. That will ensure at least 3 more days for investigation. And that's the bare minimum. Imo the D will have 4 days of investigations at least.
But he will need to find a G tomorrow and reveal that to the public.

First the D will have to find a G, then the jailer should play smart and jail the D while the BG protects himself and on the next day the BG protects the D. They will need to trust each other and co-operate, not hide like Klin did in the last game when he was the BG and the other special roles were begging the BG to reveal himself.

 

[ALC]

I'm always a target to be recruited so what I'm doing now could haunt me later. Yeah, maybe it's smarter to shut my mouth. But I won't. I will look for the Gs and your trio is suspicious. The only suspects as a matter of fact.
So far it's you, Kyle and ALC for me.

I could so imagine Janna doing this to spite Klin. Or it could just be completely random. But how poetic would it be if it were Janna?

Definitely, that would be hilarious.

Klin is a weird choice, the D should investigate Janna, she has been suss from the start.

I suspect her, so yeah. Alen and her and then TWW.

 

[Salvo]

Why TWW?

 

[ALC]

He's sketchy. Just a gut feeling.

 

[Gabriel]

Yeah, and the singer always gets the better girls, screw him.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Sorry i couldn't be active in the past few hours guys. I was really tired and went to sleep. Slept for 10 hours!

Sad to see klin go. Hoped he'd play much longer in the game.

I see a lot of suspicions on Alen. Let me just say that alen dies this all the time. He's always making long posts like this explaining consequences in detail and driving the opinion of the public. Or at least trying to drive it. No one can predict what his role is successfully. This is a boon and a bane for good and the bad alike.

 

[Bezzy]

Morning all. I still am with lynching the inactive first
Katie come out and speak girl.