'Intro' to sports betting (3 Viewers)

OP
Intro

Intro

Senior Member
Apr 6, 2005
560
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  • Thread Starter #301
    Saturday:

    Couldn't resist as the prices are higher than I expected:
    Acasuso(1.57) x Robredo(1.50): 20.00 @ 2.36 (Bet365)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 43/35/3/1
    Current Bank: 248.40
    Pending: 20.00

    Bet365: 35.00
    Gamebookers: 40.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 79.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     

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    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #302
    Shouldn't have bothered:

    Result:
    Acasuso(1.57) x Robredo(1.50): 20.00 @ 2.36 => 0.00 (Bet365)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 43/36/3/0
    Current Bank: 248.40
    Banked Profit: 0.00

    Bet365: 35.00
    Gamebookers: 40.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 79.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
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  • Thread Starter #303
    Sunday:
    Robredo(1.47) x Hingis(1.45): 20.00 @ 2.13 (Gamebookers)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 43/36/3/1
    Current Bank: 228.40
    Pending: 20.00

    Bet365: 35.00
    Gamebookers: 20.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 79.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #304
    Result:
    Robredo(1.47) x Hingis(1.45): 20.00 @ 2.13 => 42.60 (Gamebookers)

    Next target is to hit over 400.00 to bank some profit but that could take a little while with reduced action until the French Open.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 44/36/3/0
    Current Bank: 271.00
    Banked Profit: 0.00

    Bet365: 35.00
    Gamebookers: 62.60
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 79.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
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  • Thread Starter #306
    Stripper said:
    Italy u21 - Denmark u21 1.55 3.5 5.5

    Sweden - Finland 1.35 4 8.25

    some good bets IMO... what u guys think?
    I don't know much about those. Italy's U21 team is supposed to be impressive but I don't know anything about that match and Sweden is too low for a Friendly match in my opinion but I don't like taking short prices so that's just my take.

    It's probably better to wait for some more valuable friendlies (I'll be looking into taking Ireland to beat Chile later this week) or even the World Cup. Plus Roland Garros starts after this weekend.

    Damn...Hewitt is about to be finished off by Daniel and I'm kicking myself for not taking this underdog opportunity.
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #307
    Intro said:
    Damn...Hewitt is about to be finished off by Daniel and I'm kicking myself for not taking this underdog opportunity.
    I spoke to soon as Hewitt comes from 4-0 down in the final set to 5-4 ahead and is now heading to a tiebreaker it seems :rofl: which reminds me why I rarely bet on sub-standard players.

    Saying that I'd have probably taken 2-1 sets to Hewitt as he just loves 'court-time' after being out injured. I may break my tennis embargo this week betting against him if another opportunity turns up but I can't wait for him to get put down at the French Open.
     

    Boudz

    Mercato Tourist
    Aug 1, 2002
    2,608
    yo intro, what ive been doing is playing alot of parlays and i wasnt seeing long term profits... is single match betting better or are parlays better? from ur experience what do u think?
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #310
    Stripper said:
    yo intro, what ive been doing is playing alot of parlays and i wasnt seeing long term profits... is single match betting better or are parlays better? from ur experience what do u think?
    Parlays or combination bets are riskier by their exact nature of having more events. Most experienced punters play singles with occasional doubles and this encourages good practice.

    I think I've shown this table before which shows how your percentage outcome drastically decreases with more selections. Based on 3 outcomes for each in football:

    Code:
    Events|	Permutations | Probability
    -----------------------------------
      1   |	   	   3 |   33.333%
      2   |		   9 |   11.111%
      3   |		  27 |   3.704%
      4   |		  81 |   1.235%
      5   |		 243 |   0.412%
      6   |		 729 |   0.137%
      7   |		2187 |   0.046%
      8   |		6561 |   0.015%
      9   |	       19683 |   0.005%
     10   |	       59049 |   0.002%
    Singles are much better practice and in the next post I'll show how to take them and bets in general.
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #311
    There are probably two key points in my opinion to be successful and I tried showing that in this thread:

    1) Have value on your side in every bet.
    2) Play at total odds which you can succeed at in the long-run.

    Adressing those points:

    Value

    The only way in the long-term to beat the bookmaker is to take 'value' bets. Most punters never understand this term or follow it. It is quite simple really because when you are betting you are not betting on an outcome but really a price. Therefore the price you take for a certain event should be greater than the probability of it occuring. True value also takes this into having a good chance of winning too.

    So for example betting on Juventus @ 1.50 in a home match indicates they have a 1/1.50*100 => 67% chance of winning. If you think they only have a 50% chance of winning then this bet shouldn't be taken because if this match was played 100 times maybe they would only win 50 and 50 times draw or lose. But of course many take the risk believing as long as they win that time you have your money on them it is ok - which is wrong because in the long-run you will lose. However, if Juventus has more than a 67% chance of winning then this bet should be taken.

    Another simple example is rolling a dice:

    I roll a dice and if it lands as a 1,2,3,4 or 5 you win and I only win it is a 6. Of course you would take this offer as you have a 5 in 6 (83%) chance of winning compared to my 16% chance. That is simple probability.

    But when prices are introduced:

    When you win I give you £0.20 however when you lose you give me £1.00. Now would you take this bet as even if you win the first 5 times but then lose the 6th you've only just broke even. It's more liekely you would lose before the sixth time however. Your chance of winning was the same as before but now once the risk is introduced with the prices it can be seen you have no edge.

    Another example is a coin toss which has a 50-50 outcome. You wouldn't bet on this if the price was 1.91 but would if it was over 2.00 for the same reason of increased percentage expectance.

    Success rate

    It's exciting going for combination bets which return 10 times your stake but I've already shown the low chance of success. But secondly to be successful such as that you need to win at the rate the odds suggest just to break even. For instance with bets around 2.00 you need to win at 1/2.00 => 50% to break even. Winning >50% enables a profit. This is linked also to the value aspect of betting but in the long-run it's worth having a price range you enjoy and find success in. Many find this range somewhere between 1.50-2.50 but you should choose wherever you can make wins to survive.
     

    Tino

    Il Tedesco
    Feb 1, 2005
    2,059
    I cant wait on the WC: :D

    Eisbären Bremerhaven - ALBA Berlin 2 1.45
    USA - MAR 1 1.50
    E.Oilers - Anaheim 1 1.80
    UNG - NZL 1 1.35
    FAGöppingen - WilhelmHV 1 1.20
    SWE - FIN 1 1.40
    ---------------------------------------------
    8.88 * 5€ = 44.4€

    lets look!

    stats:
    Bet Results(bets played/won/lost/pending): 7/3/3/1
    Starting Bank: 15.00€
    Current Bank: 94.70€
    Pending: 10€
    playing time: 25days
     

    Tino

    Il Tedesco
    Feb 1, 2005
    2,059
    Tino said:
    I cant wait on the WC: :D

    Eisbären Bremerhaven - ALBA Berlin 2 1.45
    USA - MAR 1 1.50
    E.Oilers - Anaheim 1 1.80
    UNG - NZL 1 1.35
    FAGöppingen - WilhelmHV 1 1.20
    SWE - FIN 1 1.40
    ---------------------------------------------
    8.88 * 5€ = 44.4€
    first rigth!
     

    Tino

    Il Tedesco
    Feb 1, 2005
    2,059
    Tino said:
    I cant wait on the WC: :D

    Eisbären Bremerhaven - ALBA Berlin 2 1.45
    USA - MAR 1 1.50
    E.Oilers - Anaheim 1 1.80UNG - NZL 1 1.35
    FAGöppingen - WilhelmHV 1 1.20
    SWE - FIN 1 1.40
    ---------------------------------------------
    8.88 * 5€ = 44.4€
    iam fvcking angry guys! and I dont bet until the WC!

    grazie ciao! george w. bush you wanted that they loose against MAR:pumpkin:

    stats:
    Bet Results(bets played/won/lost/pending): 7/3/4/0
    Starting Bank: 15.00€
    Current Bank: 94.70€
    Pending: 0€
    playing time: 26days
     

    Boudz

    Mercato Tourist
    Aug 1, 2002
    2,608
    Thanks Intro for the tips, single match betting is harder in football cos of the lower odds and the 3-way outcome, but thats what i know, i dont know much about tennis, i guess i'll start following urs and others tips in the forum. i liked nba during regular season cos of the 2-way outcomes, the odds are low but its much safer 2 play in parlays than football is.
    some good sites for free tips for football and other sports:

    www.freebetting.net
    www.coverwire.com ... excellent for nba
    www.online-betting-guide.co.uk
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
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  • Thread Starter #316
    Stripper said:
    Thanks Intro for the tips, single match betting is harder in football cos of the lower odds and the 3-way outcome, but thats what i know, i dont know much about tennis, i guess i'll start following urs and others tips in the forum. i liked nba during regular season cos of the 2-way outcomes, the odds are low but its much safer 2 play in parlays than football is.
    some good sites for free tips for football and other sports:

    www.freebetting.net
    www.coverwire.com ... excellent for nba
    www.online-betting-guide.co.uk
    In football you can play asian handicaps which are 2-way outcomes. I don't think they're available at betandwin but at many other bookies. Also they usually have good price ranges starting from 1.70 so they are good to encourage singles. Take a look at some of my bets and you can see how they go. They can be a little difficult to understand with 1/2 and 1/4 handicaps but once you understand it's easy.

    Using tip websites is very useful as you need all the information possible to beat the bookmaker. Someone will always have more information than you especially in countries you don't live. But it's best to trust your own thoughts as eventually it's your money.
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
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  • Thread Starter #317
    Ok here's a tip I got from a forum from a guy who I respect. It's an U21 match i know little about and also adding Ireland to beat Chile:

    IRELAND v Chile: 20.00 @ 1.73 (Stan James)
    Ukraine U21 v HOLLAND U21: 20.00 @ 1.93 (Bet365)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 44/36/3/2
    Current Bank: 231.00
    Pending: 40.00

    Bet365: 15.00
    Gamebookers: 62.60
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 59.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #318
    Punishing day - thankfully the French Open starts on Sunday:

    IRELAND v Chile: 20.00 @ 1.73 => 0.00 (Stan James)
    Ukraine U21 v HOLLAND U21: 20.00 @ 1.93 => 0.00 (Bet365)


    Transferring some funds as Bet365 has taken a hit:
    30.00: Paddy Power -> Bet365

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 44/38/3/0
    Current Bank: 231.00
    Banked Profit: 0.00

    Bet365: 45.00
    Gamebookers: 62.60
    Paddy Power: 44.20
    Stan James: 59.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
    560
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  • Thread Starter #320
    Ok the £10 to where? challenge starts here then:

    A risky and aggressive start but you guys should feel right at home with a combo of this size :D:

    ACASUSO(1.22) v Santoro
    Zib v ROBREDO(1.08)
    Carlsen v HENMAN(1.20)
    Spadea v DAVYDENKO(1.14)
    Llodra v STEPANEK(1.16)
    FERRER(1.22) v Garcia-Lopez
    Berlocq v LJUBICIC(1.22)
    BLAKE(1.12) v Srichaphan

    8-fold: £10.00 @ 3.486 (Paddy Power)

    That lot should be sorted out over Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, rain and light permitting. Will it still be alive after then?
     

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