'Intro' to sports betting (4 Viewers)

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Intro

Intro

Senior Member
Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #281
    snoop said:
    Good day for you Intro :thumbs:

    now that Barcelona won the match in regular time, my "crazy bet" was predicted all right, and only Inter ruined it, and took the possibility of winning 400$ away. Fuck I hate Inter :mad:
    Tough luck but it's always one.

    Actually rather than all these boring bets I have an interesting challenge ahead and one I've been waiting a whole year for after identifying this opportunity this time last year.

    I will try and turn £10 into £1000 in a month. This is through rolling-over each bet building a chain of wins (snowballing) to the target. As you can see I am a big tennis fan and this starts in 10 days with the French Open followed by Wimbledon a couple of weeks straight after.

    I'll show the mathematics behind it probably tomorrow and how it could be done.
     

    Buy on AliExpress.com
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #284
    Jeeks said:
    With no offence to anyone, Zlatan against Arsenal played better than Ronaldinho-.
    I was sent the wrong script - I did not receive the one of the referee awarding this win.

    That type of bet was well worth its cause as sometimes such stories make sense. I am now kicking myself that I did not make the referee connection quickly enough. Just imagine the winning bets or even similarities from Chelsea match:

    - Arsenal to have a player red-carded.
    - Arsenal to take the lead with 10-men from a free-kick converted by English centre-back.
    - Barcelona to comeback in the last 20 minutes and win 2-1.
    - Samuel Eto'o to equalise after Henrik Larsson enters the pitch and makes the difference.

    So many parallels. I mean who here bet on Liverpool to win this weekend 3-3 and on penalties again? Lightning never strikes twice apparently :p.
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #285
    Jeeks you know your tennis and like a flutter. Would you be interested in attempting to turn €10 into €1000 over the Grand Slam period this summer?

    I am thinking of doing something fun in this thread that maybe others could follow as right now I guess it's a little too boring for the mass audience. I'm just here taking refuge from all those betting forums :D.
     

    JCK

    Biased
    JCK
    May 11, 2004
    123,561
    Intro said:
    Jeeks you know your tennis and like a flutter. Would you be interested in attempting to turn €10 into €1000 over the Grand Slam period this summer?

    I am thinking of doing something fun in this thread that maybe others could follow as right now I guess it's a little too boring for the mass audience. I'm just here taking refuge from all those betting forums :D.
    Actually, I kinda lost inerest in tennis step by step after the kegend retired and Roger started to take his place in a world where there is absolutely no competition. I can work with you on betting though, but I will work it only on unibet. There I have my betting money and I will not use more than I have there.
     

    Snoop

    Sabet is a nasty virgin
    Oct 2, 2001
    28,186
    Intro said:
    Tough luck but it's always one.

    Actually rather than all these boring bets I have an interesting challenge ahead and one I've been waiting a whole year for after identifying this opportunity this time last year.

    I will try and turn £10 into £1000 in a month. This is through rolling-over each bet building a chain of wins (snowballing) to the target. As you can see I am a big tennis fan and this starts in 10 days with the French Open followed by Wimbledon a couple of weeks straight after.

    I'll show the mathematics behind it probably tomorrow and how it could be done.
    I will be waiting the details :)
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #289
    Small profit for today after a win and a loss with Simon being a rather unexpected loser.

    SIMON v Mirnyi: 20.00 @ 1.65 => 0.00 (VCBet)
    Blake v ANCIC: 20.00 @ 2.38 => 47.60 (Paddy Power)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 42/35/3/0
    Current Bank: 241.60
    Banked Profit: 0.00

    Bet365: 55.00
    Gamebookers: 40.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 52.40
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

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    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #290
    Good to hear so much interest. :agree:

    Ok so how do you get from £10 to £1000 in less than a month?

    Well the answer is 50 consecutive wins. Yes - it's a tall order but I last year I analysed an opportunity where this could be done.

    It revolves around starting with £10 and playing certain selections around odds of 1.10 and on every win rolling it over to the next bet.

    The mathematics implies:
    £10 x (1.10 ^ N) > £1000 where N (Number of winning bets) = 49.

    So at odds of 1.10 only 49 winning bets are required to return £1,067.19 which would achieve the objective.

    So the next question is how are such possible 1.10 winners found? That question is almost precisely answered in Jeeks' lethargy surrounding tennis these days. Both the Women's and Men's game can be considered very predictable with the top players having incredible win-loss records. It's this behaviour which I am looking to exploit through the best part of the year; French Open and Wimbledon. They are the most specialist surfaces (clay and grass) so the most obvious to call in terms of match-ups and these important tournaments are over a six-week period (two weeks rest break). So here there is ample opportunity to hit the 50 required winners possible.

    Last year's experiment in the next post...
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #291
    I ran this on 'paper' and started in the Grass court tournaments before Wimbledon. So I missed out on half of the tennis available without the Clay at the French Open. Here were the results:

    Federer v Haas 1 @ 1.11
    Stepanek v Roddick 2 @ 1.18
    Federer v Safin 1 @ 1.18
    Sharapova v Jankovic 1 @ 1.20
    Ventura v Berdych 2 @ 1.20
    Ancic v Logtens 1 @ 1.10
    Karlovic v Andreev 1 @ 1.28
    Ancic V Bjorkman 1 @ 1.25
    Ancic v Hernych 1 @ 1.21
    Federer v Mathieu P-H. 1 @ 1.04
    Hewitt L. v Rochus C. 1 @ 1.05
    Rusedski v Martin A. 1 @ 1.14
    Safin v Srichaphan 1 @ 1.20
    Ancic v Summerer T. 1 @ 1.10
    Henman v Nieminen 1 @ 1.13
    Llodra v Grosjean 2 @ 1.27
    Marray J. v Malisse 2 @ 1.14
    Roddick v Vanek 1 @ 1.02
    Federer v Minar I. 1 @ 1.03

    Henman v Tursunov 1 @ 1.15
    Muller G. v Nadal 2 @ 1.10

    Ancic v Udomchoke 1 @ 1.05
    Hewitt L. v Hernych 1 @ 1.06
    Gasquet R. v Elseneer 1 @ 1.08
    Hanescu v Grosjean 2 @ 1.30
    Bracciali v Roddick 2 @ 1.05
    Karatancheva v Sharapova 2 @ 1.06
    Srebotnik v Sharapova 2 @ 1.04
    Andreev v Roddick 2 @ 1.07
    Djokovic v Grosjean 2 @ 1.20
    Tipsarevic v Johansson 2 @ 1.17
    Federer v Kiefer 1 @ 1.05
    Vinci v Clijsters 2 @ 1.05
    Dechy v Sharapova 2 @ 1.08
    Coria v Roddick 2 @ 1.13
    Federer v Ferrero 1 @ 1.04
    Tursunov v Grosjean 2 @ 1.23
    Petrova v Sharapova M. 2 @ 1.12
    Davenport v Kuznetsova 1 @ 1.27
    Hewitt v Lopez F. 1 @ 1.40
    Federer v Gonzalez F. 1 @ 1.06
    Federer v Hewitt L. 1 @ 1.14
    Roddick v Johansson T. 1 @ 1.22


    EXCLUDING THOSE 2 LOSSES:
    41-fold @ 163.4644714 => £10 @ 163.464 = £1,634.64

    Could I have avoided those losses? They were bad picks but obviously a shock could occur anywhere. But here I tried to obtain nearly all the wins over Wimbledon. Give myself the French Open I would have more choice and need to push less. Obtaining the 50 or so neccessary wins is still a tall order but as you can see there is plenty on offer; the same names Federer, Roddick, Nadal (on clay) along with Clijsters, Davenport and Sharapova could be recycled time-and-time again as they don't encounter shock defeats.

    Looking at that last run the average price was actually 1.14 meaning only 36 winning bets were required. (£10 x 1.14 ^ N > £1,000 => N = 36).

    Thoughts?

    Note: Jeeks I checked out Unibet and they let results stand IF one set of tennis has played. I don't like this rule as your player could get injured and you lose your bet even though technically your player never 'lost'. That's why my bookies are all where the bet is void if the match is not finished. If you are interested I could suggest a very good alternative.
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #293
    Fliakis said:
    any offers?
    What do you mean? This is guaranteed money :p.

    Offers? I'm not offering :D and follow at your own risk to wealth. There are bookies you can join and use the free bet though which could be an option. But I think I've set myself up for a BIG fall with my plans here...
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

    Senior Member
    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #294
    Just one bet for Friday:
    Stepanek(1.53) x Acasuso(1.53): 20.00 @ 2.34 (Stan James)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 42/35/3/1
    Current Bank: 221.60
    Pending: 20.00

    Bet365: 55.00
    Gamebookers: 40.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 32.40
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

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    Apr 6, 2005
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    Bet won:
    Stepanek(1.53) x Acasuso(1.53): 20.00 @ 2.34 => 46.80 (Stan James)

    Boring weekend ahead with hardly much football...can't wait for the World Cup to start. Probably a few more tennis bets if anything appears this weekend or early next week otherwise see you all back middle/end of next week for the £10 -> £1,000 challenge.

    Happy betting. :pint:

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Bet Results(Won/Lost/Push/Pending): 43/35/3/0
    Current Bank: 268.40
    Banked Profit: 0.00

    Bet365: 55.00
    Gamebookers: 40.00
    Paddy Power: 74.20
    Stan James: 79.20
    VC Bet: 20.00
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

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    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #297
    Fliakis said:
    i just bet on tennis :wallbang:
    What could have gone wrong? Didn't see any shocks today?

    Anyway you should follow my tips - which is why they are here :p. It's a privilege I'm here elsewhere on the Internet you'd have to pay for this kind of service. :D
     

    Tino

    Il Tedesco
    Feb 1, 2005
    2,059
    Intro said:
    What could have gone wrong? Didn't see any shocks today?

    Anyway you should follow my tips - which is why they are here :p. It's a privilege I'm here elsewhere on the Internet you'd have to pay for this kind of service. :D
    no fli! ask me, my tipps are free...:agree:
     
    Sep 28, 2002
    13,975
    Intro said:
    What could have gone wrong? Didn't see any shocks today?

    Anyway you should follow my tips - which is why they are here :p. It's a privilege I'm here elsewhere on the Internet you'd have to pay for this kind of service. :D
    dont know, that was some women doubles match. i won.





    now i bet that lithuania will win the eurovision :D 1.20GBP@50 :cash:
     
    OP
    Intro

    Intro

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    Apr 6, 2005
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  • Thread Starter #300
    Fliakis said:
    dont know, that was some women doubles match. i won.
    You only bet on Women if there is some emotional investment (i.e. the player is hot :D) otherwise they're not worth the hassle.
     

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