Global Financial Crisis (6 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
Well, I'm not saying it's going to be profitable. But at least you're cutting losses, no?
I mean, there's nothing else you can do that would help besides buy options in this present state economy.
But if things really do go to hell in a hand-basket, having some profitable currency shorts or whatever other play you make won't matter. Instead, you'd want to go long food and firearms.

So basically, those that are cheerleaders for $5000 gold are essentially hoping for a US Dollar worth 90% less than it does today, massive civil unrest, and government collapse. Even if I make a million on a leveraged trade, I may not be able to cash out of the trade, receiving a check from my broker. And even if I could cash out, that million would only be worth 100K in present day US Dollars.

So at that point, it wouldn't really matter. I'd still have to deal with the consequences of shortages in food, heating oil, and a change in government.

Nobody is safe in this environment. So perhaps instead of fucking around trying to find an opportunity in speculating on future currency movements, my time might be better spent in trying to wake people up to the problems we face.

:D

Seriously, this huge crap can't be fixed unless we see yet another war. It can be stalled, but not fixed. It's just too much and US can't do anything about it, only loan will increase during the time. It wouldn't be the first time to happen for that reason.
You're probably right. WWII effectively destroyed half of the world's productive capacity, allowing us to concentrate on building infrastructure and producing goods with little competition. It's too bad that now we cannot fund a WWIII military excursion unless we destroy the nation through hyperinflation, which is exactly what the Weimar Republic did. A trade war with China could turn into an outright war, and there's no chance of them loaning us money at that point. Nobody will.

Basically, millions of people have to killed and productive capital has to be destroyed for the US to remain on this path. But it's not a possible, nor desirable, outcome.
 

Buy on AliExpress.com

ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
45,996
I wonder what It'd be like to live through a post-Apocalyptic, Mad Max kinda world. Going down south would be my first move.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
You wouldn't necessarily want to go South. You'd want to find a remote location away from large cities in which you could defend. Being from PA, you'd probably want to head to the Poconos.
 

ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
45,996
It's just that I hate the cold. If I had to deal with that, I'd be down for Canada or even Alaska. Alaskan summers would be banging in terms of producing food
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
Suck a fucking dick, Bernanke. Since your QE2 monetization announcement last Wednesday, mortgage rates have been going up, just like QE1. You shitheads know these policies won't work.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
So Andy -- what's the best way to effectively short gold with a timeframe of, say, 24-36 months?
The easiest way for a retail investor to short gold is probably through an inverse ETF/ETN. DGZ comes to mind. If you have a margin account, you could short GLD which is the most liquid gold ETF. Problem with these sort of things is that if you have contango, you can get screwed on the futures contract rollover.

Most people don't have the ability to play the gold futures, so the only other way to play a short gold move is being long the dollar. That is, if you believe the run up in gold is only because of dollar weakness.

http://etf.about.com/b/2009/12/23/short-gold-etfs-a-short-list.htm
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
options Andy OPTIONS!!
Yeah, options might be good as well, if you know what you're doing. Some deep out of the money puts on GLD would probably be a nice risk-reward play right now. But again, if you're not in the money, you lose the entire amount invested.

I'm not good with options.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
I don't know, but this looks like a three wave pattern in silver. Three waves, each with increasing slope, with the last being a parabolic move upwards. Such patterns exhaust themselves and usually collapse with the same ferocity.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,441
The easiest way for a retail investor to short gold is probably through an inverse ETF/ETN. DGZ comes to mind. If you have a margin account, you could short GLD which is the most liquid gold ETF. Problem with these sort of things is that if you have contango, you can get screwed on the futures contract rollover.

Most people don't have the ability to play the gold futures, so the only other way to play a short gold move is being long the dollar. That is, if you believe the run up in gold is only because of dollar weakness.

http://etf.about.com/b/2009/12/23/short-gold-etfs-a-short-list.htm
Thanks for the advice.

By 2013, I want to be laughing my ass off at the world's suckahs, waving all of their cash in their gold idiot faces that will now be in my possession. It's my special way of going all credit default swaps on their asses all over again. Fools who believe in :gsol:intrinsic value:gsol: independent of what the next schmuck investor is willing to pay for the asset.

But maybe options is the way to do it. A long dollar to me seems as retarded as going long on gold.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
I think bearish sentiment on the dollar is about 95% right now. Usually that is a buy signal, but not a silver bullet, especially with China starting to call our bluff.

Technicals and fundamentals don't seem to matter anymore. People seem to be trading on front running the FED, but that won't go on forever. They will lose control of the situation and then the question is are they really that insane to print more in the face of our creditors saying no mass.

In some ways, I think they are.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,508
Uh oh.

CSCO came out with earnings today, they did OK, but guided lower because they are worried about rising input margin costs. With commodities going higher, these companies will suffer margin compression, just like they did in 2007 and 2008. This means that they have to spend more to make their products while not passing the cost onto the consumer (since demand isn't strong).

The result? These companies end up laying off workers.

And once again, we can thank Bernanke and the FED for this. We are definitely in depression mode now.

CSCO beat expectations, but since they admitted they're worried about input costs, they got hammered. Wow.
 

The Curr

Senior Member
Feb 3, 2007
33,705
Ireland in talks to get EU financial aid - sources
4:47pm GMT

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Ireland is in talks about tapping emergency funds from the European Financial Stability Facility, euro zone sources said on Friday, but Ireland said it had not formally applied for any European Union aid.

The process of getting support from the EU requires a formal application from a euro zone government, that has to be assessed by the European Commission and the European Central Bank and approved by euro zone finance ministers.

"Talks are ongoing and European Financial Stability Facility money will be used, there will be no haircuts or (debt) restructuring or anything of the kind," one euro zone source said. "It is very likely that Ireland will get a programme."

Euro zone finance ministers will discuss the budget situation of Ireland, Portugal and Greece on Tuesday.

Ireland's finance ministry said it had not applied for emergency funding from the European Union:

"There is no application for emergency funding from the European Union," a spokesman for the ministry said.

But a second euro zone source confirmed that talks, despite the lack of a formal application, were taking place.

"The talks are ongoing between the EU and Ireland on a lending package from the EFSF, of unspecified size," the second euro zone source said. "It is clear there will be no haircuts, which should help restore calm to markets," the source said.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said earlier on Friday the country did not need to ask for EU help because it was fully funded until June 2011 and had substantial cash reserves.

"The state is well funded into June of next year, we have substantial reserves, so this country is not in a situation or position where it is required in any way to apply for the facility," he said in an interview with RTE television.

"Why apply in those circumstances? It doesn't seem to me to make any sense. It would send a signal to the markets that we are not in a position to manage our affairs ourselves," he said.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who chairs the talks of euro zone finance ministers, said he could not confirm if Ireland had applied for help, but that the Eurogroup was following the Irish situation very closely.

Irish bond yield spreads over German Bunds have surged to 6 percent in recent days on market concern that euro zone preparations for a debt restructuring mechanism meant it was preparing the ground for a possible Irish or Portuguese default.

Funds that euro zone countries cut off from the markets can obtain from the EFSF would come at a price similar to that paid by now Greece for its euro zone aid -- around five percent.

If the talks lead to Dublin formally applying for and getting the funds, Ireland would be the first euro zone country to use the EU's financial safety net, created in May for euro zone countries cut off from market financing after the Greek debt crisis.

The EU has created a 750 billion euro (618 billion pounds), IMF-backed emergency fund for euro zone countries in trouble.

Of the total, 440 billion euros is in euro zone government guarantees, 60 billion is backed by the European Union budget and 250 billion would come from the International Monetary Fund.

If needed, the 60 billion guaranteed by the EU budget is to be tapped first.
 

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