Global Financial Crisis (13 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,996
Durable Goods Orders are COLLAPSING.

Durable Goods Broadly Miss Expectations, Push 10 Year To 2.44%, Lowest Since January 2009

Durable goods orders widely miss expectation, coming in at +0.3%, on a consensus of +2.8%, with the previous -1.2% drop revised to just -0.1%. Durable goods ex transportation came in at -3.8%, on expectations of 0.5% (previous -0.9% revised to 0.2%). And the kicker - non-defense capital goods ex. aircraft came in at -8.0% M/M versus expectations of 0.4% (with the previous print of 0.2% revised far higher to 3.6%). The 10 Year has hit 2.439% on the news. Goldman is pretty laconic: "This report is weak and much worse than expected." Pretty much game over for the reflation scenario. Check to you Bernanke - the only option left is the nuclear one.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/du...ctations-push-10-year-244-lowest-january-2009

On with the Recoveryless Recovery Summer!
 

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Dostoevsky

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
89,246
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #602
    Andy, central bank is a private corporation right?

    If so, then they do loan all the money to the US with an interest? So basically they are taking money from themselves and make the debt even bigger every time, no? They take money and create an extra debt and at the same time control the value.

    There's simply no exit from this. They can't get away with it unless they shit some money out.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    Andy, central bank is a private corporation right?

    If so, then they do loan all the money to the US with an interest? So basically they are taking money from themselves and make the debt even bigger every time, no? They take money and create an extra debt and at the same time control the value.

    There's simply no exit from this. They can't get away with it unless they shit some money out.
    That's pretty much it, you got it. :tup:

    As Congressman Kucinich says, "The Federal Reserve is as Federal as Federal Express." It's not part of the government at all.

    The power to issue and control currency was given to the Congress under the US Constitution because the Founding Fathers were very weary of how bankers could enslave a nation through debt. Then after the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, the private central bankers took over and there was no turning back. Dollar devaluation and perpetual debt became the norm.

    No idea why anyone would agree to this, but what do I know. All hail the financial terrorist central bankers for creating the majority of problems we face in the economy.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    By the way, we might have gotten ourselves a 4th Hindenburg Omen yesterday.


    Trader McHugh said:
    We got a fourth official Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday, August 25th. There only need to be two observations to form a cluster that raises the probability of a coming stock market plunge from random on any given day (less than one-tenth of one percent), to thirty percent for a crash over a coming four month period, and over 75 percent for a significant decline to occur over the coming four months. What the additional observations mean is that markets remain in a high risk state, as uniformity is lacking. It is a reminder of the dangerous condition of the market.

    The stats for this fourth observation are as follows: New 52 Week Highs were 90, with New Lows at 150, the lesser of the two coming in at 2.85 percent. Total NYSE issue traded were 3,154. The McClellan Oscillator was negative -150.61, and the 10 week Moving Average has risen over the past several weeks. New NYSE Highs were not more than twice New Lows.

    Since we got the first observation of this latest Hindenburg Omen cluster on August 12th, 2010, the Industrials fell 382 points. Since the indicator became official with Friday, August 20th's second observation, the Industrials have lost 275 points. Markets are at risk of significantly further decline over the next several months.
    Personally, I think we only have seen three Omens thus far. But still, there is a 20% chance the market will crash over the next couple months.

    And even if everyone knows about the Hindenburg Omen, that still might not make a difference in how the market moves. This sort of thing can turn into a "self-fulfilling prophecy" which might make a sell off even worse.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    Yeah, that's not sustainable. And with real unemployment hovering around 17%, income tax revenue won't go up, and neither will other tax revenue based on payrolls and subsequently goods and services. Increasing taxes will only make the problem worse. Yet another stimulus bill might be on the cards?

    Yeah, good fucking luck. We'll need it.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    The Market Ticker take on the recent employment data:

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165896

    Highlight: employment rate of the working population still in a downtrend. No recovery whatsoever.


    That's a problem - note the little hook down? The actual percentage of people who are employed .vs. the civilian labor force available to be employed (that is, non-incarcerated working-age people) hasn't budged materially, and after the small indications of improvement, it is now headed back downward.

    So we're now back to where we were in June of 2009 in this regard - more than a year later, and after tentative signs of improvement. Wow, I'm impressed. NOT!

    Here's reality - we cannot close the budget deficit gap until and unless this improves. We certainly cannot maintain the economic stimulus that comes from our deficit spending with 59% of the labor force actually working. Not a prayer in hell. In fact, until we get back to 63-64% we cannot solve the budget problem at all!

    To put this in hard numbers we need to add over 11 million jobs to close this gap.

    The mainstream media and "economists" aren't focusing on this but I sure as hell have been for the last two years, and will continue to. This is the "Greece" problem coming straight at us at 90mph, in that as social spending demand continues unabated the tax base is inadequate to support those demands, no matter what you do with tax rates and giveaways.

    We need serious and dramatic changes in macro level economic policy folks, not incremental changes and give-aways. I know these things are anathema to the Washington establishment, but all we're doing right now is marking time until the deficits that are and remain structural become unable to be funded.

    Last evening I posted a long missive on a set of fiscal policy prescriptions that would address this problem. There is no evidence that anyone in Washington DC has or will take these seriously, but if we don't, the claims of "recovery" that you've been hearing are going to have the staying power of a big snort of cocaine - powerful "in your face" rallies in the market for a while on the back of promises made in the mainstream media, but those promises will not be able to be fulfilled.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    "What's the worst case scenario if we see real estate prices come down substantially across the country?"

    "I guess I don't buy your premise, it's a pretty unlikely possibility. We will never have a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis."

    - Ben Bernanke, July 29th, 2005.

    :howler: :lol:
     

    swag

    L'autista
    Administrator
    Sep 23, 2003
    84,968
    Well to quote some old Soul Coughing...

    "When all the world has lain and sank, and money sleeps inside the banks, I'll drift there to meet you, layzbones."
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    Holy shit, the Bank of Japan just stepped into the foreign exchange market and made an intervention to lower the value of the Yen. This sent all Yen FX crosses haywire, including the USD/JPY cross which spiked over 2% in the matter of minutes.

    This is their first currency intervention in years, under the admitted premise they are trying to protect their exporters.

    Moves like these in the currency markets are INSANE, and with most FX accounts leveraged up over 5 to 1, undoubtedly some people were absolutely DESTROYED if they were on the wrong end of this move. Probably some traders went bankrupt over this bullshit. Thank goodness I wasn't involved in this market tonight.

    Central bankers are a bunch of cocksuckers.

    BOJ Shirakawa: "Forex, Stock Markets Unstable"

    NO SHIT, DICKHEAD! THANKS A LOT!
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    People in Europe are waking up to a Wednesday surprise. :howler:

    These stupid interventions only work in the short-term, so the Japs are only going to screw over some traders, perhaps a few banks, until the rest of the forex market fucks them over hard in retaliation.

    I don't know why these folks think they can control the largest market in the world, but central bankers are arrogant wankers. This is the sort of instability and stupidity that causes market crashes.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    This is one of the most damning pieces of evidence I've seen yet that we are in very hard times... and that federal entitlements will push the government over the edge. From Wal-Mart:

    “And you need not go further than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it’s real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m., customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items, baby formula, milk, bread, eggs,and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight, when electronic — government electronic benefits cards get activated and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.

    “And if you really think about it, the only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they’ve been waiting for it. Otherwise, we are open 24 hours — come at 5 a.m., come at 7 a.m., come at 10 a.m. But if you are there at midnight, you are there for a reason.”
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/20/watching-walmart-at-midnight/?blog_id=8&post_id=11667

    If you have such an uptick in people buying necessities during the first of the month, as soon as their government funding goes online, these people are in deep trouble. As unemployment continues to soar, unemployment benefits will run out for certain people, and we will have more people looking for government-sponsored help with groceries and other necessities. 40M Americans live off of food stamps, about 12% of the population (remember those bread lines during the Great Depression?). This number is only going to continue to go up... until it can't. That's when the government becomes truly maxed out and these programs will have to stop or else they implode.

    Debasing the currency will only help destroy the middle and lower classes even more. Instead of $3 for a gallon of milk, they will be paying $5 while they are either unemployed or underemployed. So why has the FED tried to spur on inflation when they know it won't improve the situation? Well, because by doing so, they prop up asset values that the large banks depend on. That's the only reason why these policies are in play... to support the banks that should have failed. The middle class can kiss their asses... is what they say through these policies.

    Now we are in deep shit because all this supposed stimulus and government spending hasn't done a damn thing to pull us towards real growth, which was predictable. So now the government is in a deeper hole than it was before, along with the consumer. Something has got to break.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    Great Article, definitely worth the read.

    Graham Summers of Phoenix Capital Research

    http://209.157.64.200/focus/news/2595009/posts?page=2

    Forget a Recession, The Empire is Crumbling

    I look around me and I see an Empire in Decline.

    The US economy is clearly in a depression… not a recession, not a recovery, but a DEPRESSION of a moral, social, and financial nature.

    More than 40 million Americans (12%) are on Food stamps. Nearly one in five of us are unemployed of underemployed. Folks go to Wal-Mart at 11PM waiting for their government checks to clear at midnight so they can buy baby formula, milk and other necessities.

    Three out of every five Americans are overweight. One in five are obese. Indeed, there are only two areas (one state, Colorado, and Washington DC) where obesity rates are under 20%.

    Nearly three in four of us don’t get enough sleep. Almost one third of us report having trouble falling asleep EVERY night. And almost half of us report that day-time sleepiness interferes with normal activities including work.

    Half of marriages end in divorce. One out of ten married couples report sleeping alone. The average American watches 28 hours of TV a week (enough to qualify for a part-time job). Two thirds of us eat dinner while watching TV, preferring the fake, sensationalized lives of others to engaging with our own families.

    The TV and media are filled with foul, ungodly images of sex, violence, and hate. The most watched shows of the last decade all feature ordinary folks becoming superstars in lottery-esque competitions (American Idol, Survivor, Who Wants to be a Millionaire, etc) OR crime sagas detailing the most sordid and disgusting elements of society (CSI, Law and Order, etc) OR amoral social dramas in which notions of personal responsibility, fidelity, and common decency are unknown (Desperate Housewives, the Bachelorette, etc).

    Today, brain dead, vapid human beings who have contributed nothing to society are idolized and followed as though they invented the wheel. We’ve actually got two industries devoted to presenting the illusion and reality of celebrity: Hollywood shows the photo-shopped, CGI-enhanced, scripted version, while the paparazzi and weekly glossies reveal the drug-addicted, affair-crazed, family breaking, soul-less emptiness.

    Sex or violence are plastered on virtually every flat surface available. Even the check-out lines at the grocery store feature endless images of barely clothed women along with headlines sensationalizing gruesome behavior, right out in the open for children to see. And if the kid can actually read the headlines… God only knows what ideas this stuff is putting into their heads.

    Financially, we’re all pretty much bust or going bust (except those on Wall Street).

    New home sales in July were a RECORD low. Not record as in for the year, but the lowest since 1963. The talking heads are high fiving because sales improved in August, but failed to note that they were still DOWN 19% from August 2009 levels.

    Americans two primary assets for retirement (stocks and their homes) have both been absolute disasters. Home prices are down 30%, stocks haven’t produced gains in over a decade. Every moron on TV talks about the Dow 10,000 like it’s a miracle. But when you adjust the Dow for inflation, (using the BLS’ ridiculous CPI measure) the Dow is SUB-500 in terms of purchasing power.

    Our money system is controlled by an elite banking oligarchy fronted by academics who have never run a business, invented anything, or had any interaction with commerce aside from vying for tenure. Our currency is now worth less than 1/20th of what it was a century ago. And we are ALL in debt up to our eyeballs on a personal, corporate, local, state, and federal level.

    Heck, even USA TODAY (not exactly the cutting edge in financial research) notes that in order to pay off our current liabilities, every US family would have to pay $31,000 a year… for 75 YEARS!!!

    And we’re talking about an economic recovery?

    According to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff:

    Wages & salaries are still down 3.7% from the prior peak;
    Corporate profits are still down 20% from the peak;
    Real GDP is still down 1.3% from the peak;
    Industrial production is still down 7.2% from the peak;
    Employment is still down 5.5% from the peak;
    Retail sales are still down 4.5% from the peak;
    Manufacturing orders are still down 22.1% from the peak;
    Manufacturing shipments are still down 12.5% from the peak;
    Exports are still down 9.2% from the peak;
    Housing starts are still down 63.5% from the peak;
    New home sales are still down 68.9% from the peak;
    Existing home sales are still down 41.2% from the peak;
    Non-residential construction is still down 35.7% from the peak.
    The American Psychological Association reports that 73% of Americans cite money as a source of significant stress. Personal bankruptcies have fallen 8% month over month from July to August. However, August 2010 bankruptcies are up 6% from August 2009… so much for the recovery.

    And yet, despite all of this, assumedly intelligent people write op-ed articles and appear on TV claiming that things are swell in the US, that we’re actually OK and that the recession is over. Some of these people even have advanced degrees or have won international prizes for economics.

    Let’s be honest. Forget recessions, forget even Depressions, the US is an empire in decline.

    You can literally see it crumbling right in front of you. Just start looking at how people live, eat, and act on a day to day basis. Look at how our Government runs itself, how it manages our affairs, how it spends our tax Dollars. Look at how our justice system works, who it protects and who it punishes.

    It’s all out there, right in the open for you to see. You don’t need an expert degree or some kind of advanced education. It’s OBVIOUS to anyone who bothers looking around.

    The fact we don’t admit it doesn’t mean it’s not true.

    Best Regards,

    Graham Summers
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996
    Irish Credit Default Swaps are now more expensive than ever.

    What say you, IrishZebra? You said that things in Ireland would only get better. What happened? :p


    The cost of insuring Irish sovereign bonds against default using credit default swaps hit a fresh record high Wednesday.

    Ireland’s five-year sovereign CDS rose to 4.67 percentage points, a 0.33 percentage-point increase from Tuesday’s closing level, figures from data provider Markit showed.

    Ireland sold the maximum 1.5 billion euros of government bonds Tuesday, but paid sharply higher yields than previously, reflecting political and economic uncertainty.
    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/09/22/ireland-cds-hit-record-high/
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,996

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