Just looking back at this thread. IZ said to buy the Euro in early March. Such a trade would have made you piss your pants and liquidate the position. 
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Global Financial Crisis (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dostoevsky
- Start date
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Weekly jobless claims... horrible, again.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20101073.htm
More deterioration week over week, and more folks not counted as long-term unemployed. Worst number since April.
So much for the "Summer Recovery", which the government has said would occur for the past three summers.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20101073.htm
More deterioration week over week, and more folks not counted as long-term unemployed. Worst number since April.
So much for the "Summer Recovery", which the government has said would occur for the past three summers.
The Federal Reserve had it's monthly meeting and released their policy information. No change in rates. More extending and pretending.
But this is a good FedSpeak translation by Karl Denninger. The Fed statements in italics, the translation in regular font.
_____________________________
FOMC Announcement 8/10
(Their statement inset, my translation outset.)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months.
We never had a recovery. The Government borrowed a scadload of money and blew it to avoid recognizing what was a severe recession; as a consequence they reported at worst a 2% drawdown annualized, but this is fraudulent - the real drawdown has exceeded 10% now for more than two years.
Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
Everyone's broke. Congratulations.
Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract.
Business is broke too. That claimed "record balance sheet cash" is of course offset by debt, and coverage ratios are worse now in terms of assets than any time in the last 50 years. That's not improving either.
Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
We believe. Don't you?
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The economy is going through deflation and our attempts to stop it have failed.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
There's no growth, the economy is contracting at 10% per year and is likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. We know this and we also know that at some point the government's ability to borrow and spend in order to fraudulently report "growth" will disappear. Of course we won't tell you that up front, because then Grandma will (correctly) surmise that her Social Security and Medicare will disappear (and she's rather likely to be unhappy.)
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
I said there is no recovery! We can't shrink the balance sheet but we can try to monetize Treasury Debt. Of course there is this tiny problem with that Fannie and Freddie paper - it's got huge embedded losses in it. We won't bother talking about the blatantly-unconstitutional act of allocating revenue that we just said we're going to do - and we hope Scott Garrett doesn't call us on it (again.)
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
We suck and we know it. Ain't it grand that you let us get away with this crap?
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
The criminal cabal.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.
And the one man with a brain.....
PS: To Mr. Hoenig: Don't get in any private planes. Nor take any late-night walks. Nor go bird hunting with anyone named "Cheney." And for God's sake, don't stand up in the bathtub. (Yes, that's sarcasm, if you're incapable of understanding it as-written.)
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2570-FOMC-Announcement-810.html
But this is a good FedSpeak translation by Karl Denninger. The Fed statements in italics, the translation in regular font.
_____________________________
FOMC Announcement 8/10
(Their statement inset, my translation outset.)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months.
We never had a recovery. The Government borrowed a scadload of money and blew it to avoid recognizing what was a severe recession; as a consequence they reported at worst a 2% drawdown annualized, but this is fraudulent - the real drawdown has exceeded 10% now for more than two years.
Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
Everyone's broke. Congratulations.
Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract.
Business is broke too. That claimed "record balance sheet cash" is of course offset by debt, and coverage ratios are worse now in terms of assets than any time in the last 50 years. That's not improving either.
Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
We believe. Don't you?
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The economy is going through deflation and our attempts to stop it have failed.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
There's no growth, the economy is contracting at 10% per year and is likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. We know this and we also know that at some point the government's ability to borrow and spend in order to fraudulently report "growth" will disappear. Of course we won't tell you that up front, because then Grandma will (correctly) surmise that her Social Security and Medicare will disappear (and she's rather likely to be unhappy.)
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
I said there is no recovery! We can't shrink the balance sheet but we can try to monetize Treasury Debt. Of course there is this tiny problem with that Fannie and Freddie paper - it's got huge embedded losses in it. We won't bother talking about the blatantly-unconstitutional act of allocating revenue that we just said we're going to do - and we hope Scott Garrett doesn't call us on it (again.)
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
We suck and we know it. Ain't it grand that you let us get away with this crap?
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
The criminal cabal.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.
And the one man with a brain.....
PS: To Mr. Hoenig: Don't get in any private planes. Nor take any late-night walks. Nor go bird hunting with anyone named "Cheney." And for God's sake, don't stand up in the bathtub. (Yes, that's sarcasm, if you're incapable of understanding it as-written.)
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2570-FOMC-Announcement-810.html
Incredibly ugly day across the board in stocks. All major indices were down around 3%, which is like a mini-crash.
We pretty much had what is called a "Hindenburg Omen" today, which is a technical event based on how many stocks reach new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the NYSE, among other parameters. If we get another Hindenburg Omen within the next 36 trading days, the probability of having a major market crash within the coming days is 77%. So it's a pretty damn good indicator.
Overall, I still believe the market highs are in for the rest of the year.
We pretty much had what is called a "Hindenburg Omen" today, which is a technical event based on how many stocks reach new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the NYSE, among other parameters. If we get another Hindenburg Omen within the next 36 trading days, the probability of having a major market crash within the coming days is 77%. So it's a pretty damn good indicator.
Overall, I still believe the market highs are in for the rest of the year.
I think the Euro is a flawed currency. Eurozone members have no control over their own monetary policy, so therefore if a small nation like Greece wants to increase exports they can't do so by devaluing. Different nations may require a currency that is cheaper or more expensive than their counterpart depending on their economy, so with the Euro that isn't possible.
This is partly why Greece is in trouble. The Swedes are smart to keep the SEK, IMO. And right now it's paying off for them as it's appreciating against other currencies.
This is partly why Greece is in trouble. The Swedes are smart to keep the SEK, IMO. And right now it's paying off for them as it's appreciating against other currencies.
Up to +500,000 on the weekly jobless claims report, which is back to November 2009 levels. Can you say Runaway Truck?
And yet some still claim we're in a "Summer Recovery"... for the 3rd Summer in a row!
Oh, and keeping with tradition, the previous week's number was revised up once again.
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
And yet some still claim we're in a "Summer Recovery"... for the 3rd Summer in a row!
Oh, and keeping with tradition, the previous week's number was revised up once again.
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
OP
These are recession levels of jobless claims.
Too bad we never left the first recession.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-500k-expectations-478k-previous-484k
Too bad we never left the first recession.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-500k-expectations-478k-previous-484k
Holy shit, disastrous Business Outlook/Philadelphia Fed numbers.
Philly Fed Plunges To -7.7 on Expectations Of 7.0, Previous 5.1
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/philly-fed-plunges-77-expectations-70-previous-51
This means that over the past month, business and manufacturing has contracted by over 12 points, which is a HUGE decline. When you get negative Philly Fed numbers, that means contraction. But this is like diving off a cliff.
S&P futures tanked but I didn't have a clean entry, so I missed the move.
Philly Fed Plunges To -7.7 on Expectations Of 7.0, Previous 5.1
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/philly-fed-plunges-77-expectations-70-previous-51
This means that over the past month, business and manufacturing has contracted by over 12 points, which is a HUGE decline. When you get negative Philly Fed numbers, that means contraction. But this is like diving off a cliff.
S&P futures tanked but I didn't have a clean entry, so I missed the move.
I'm watching Capitalism: A Love Story from Michael Moore. Kinda depressing.
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/capitalism-love-story/
2 hours long, btw.
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/capitalism-love-story/
2 hours long, btw.
