Global Financial Crisis (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dostoevsky
- Start date
That has to do with the whole U3 and U6 issue, JBF. In U3 the government only counts people who are in the "labor force", meaning they are looking for work and have not had a job in under 6 months time. After the six month period, the government removes you from the labor force as it assumes you have "given up looking for work." U3 also counts part time workers as employed despite the fact they are looking for work.
This, along with the "Birth/Death" model that assumes a set number of start up jobs are created each month out of thin air with no proof, is why U3 is bullshit. U6 actually counts these folks except for the part timers IIRC.
U3 - 9.5% unemployment
U6 - ~17% unemployment
But when the media pundits discuss the issue, they use the U3 number because it is bullshit.
This, along with the "Birth/Death" model that assumes a set number of start up jobs are created each month out of thin air with no proof, is why U3 is bullshit. U6 actually counts these folks except for the part timers IIRC.
U3 - 9.5% unemployment
U6 - ~17% unemployment
But when the media pundits discuss the issue, they use the U3 number because it is bullshit.
Research firm: 5,200 restaurants closed in the U.S. this spring
By Jeremiah McWilliams
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
10:35 a.m. Thursday, July 22, 2010
More than 5,200 restaurants closed in the U.S. this spring, dropping the total number in operation by 1 percent, according to market research by The NPD Group. The firm's census showed that independent restaurant closings contributed to most of the decline, while chain units remained relatively stable.
The number of fast food restaurants declined 1 percent, by about 2,500 units. The number of full service restaurants also fell 1 percent, by 2,683 units. That data came from a survey conducted from April 2009 to the end of March 2010.
The closings came as diners pulled back their spending and ate at home more often. Visits to U.S. restaurants fell 3 percent in the year ending May 2010, and consumer spending at restaurants fell 1 percent. That was the first decline in dollars NPD has reported since it began tracking the industry 34 years ago.
“It’s been a difficult time for the restaurant industry with customer traffic down over the past year,” said Greg Starzynski, director of product development-foodservice at NPD. “The unit losses we’re seeing in our latest census are a reflection of the weakness in the industry with the greatest impact on the independent restaurant operators.”
http://www.ajc.com/business/research-firm-5-200-576234.html?cxtype=rss_business
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To be honest, my experiences at the restaurants I once liked have gone downhill recently. Last night I ordered filet mignon and lobster which turned out to be OK, but I think I could have done better. When that is the case, then you know it isn't worth spending $45 on a meal that would cost $25 at home.
But news articles like this paint the story. More unskilled workers head into the unemployment graphs.
By Jeremiah McWilliams
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
10:35 a.m. Thursday, July 22, 2010
More than 5,200 restaurants closed in the U.S. this spring, dropping the total number in operation by 1 percent, according to market research by The NPD Group. The firm's census showed that independent restaurant closings contributed to most of the decline, while chain units remained relatively stable.
The number of fast food restaurants declined 1 percent, by about 2,500 units. The number of full service restaurants also fell 1 percent, by 2,683 units. That data came from a survey conducted from April 2009 to the end of March 2010.
The closings came as diners pulled back their spending and ate at home more often. Visits to U.S. restaurants fell 3 percent in the year ending May 2010, and consumer spending at restaurants fell 1 percent. That was the first decline in dollars NPD has reported since it began tracking the industry 34 years ago.
“It’s been a difficult time for the restaurant industry with customer traffic down over the past year,” said Greg Starzynski, director of product development-foodservice at NPD. “The unit losses we’re seeing in our latest census are a reflection of the weakness in the industry with the greatest impact on the independent restaurant operators.”
http://www.ajc.com/business/research-firm-5-200-576234.html?cxtype=rss_business
_______________
To be honest, my experiences at the restaurants I once liked have gone downhill recently. Last night I ordered filet mignon and lobster which turned out to be OK, but I think I could have done better. When that is the case, then you know it isn't worth spending $45 on a meal that would cost $25 at home.
But news articles like this paint the story. More unskilled workers head into the unemployment graphs.
Uh oh, FHA needs a bailout.
Where's Sergio?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fha-–-“we-are-officially-broke”
Where's Sergio?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fha-–-“we-are-officially-broke”
Here's a little technical analysis update for the S&P 500. Weekly chart dating back to 2006.
So we got several sell signals over the past month or so. The 13 exponential moving average crossed below the 34 exponential moving average on the weekly chart (yellow and red lines), which is a very bearish signal that most of the time confirms and holds. The cross to the downside means the trend is most likely down. Also, we have a sell signal from Geotaxis indicator, which is a bunch of other different moving averages. The 88 week moving average (light blue line) is also another key level to watch, which has held up well on the upside from 2003 to 2007.
Right now we are in a trading range between the two bold red horizontal lines of support and resistance, about 1040 and 1100 on the S&P 500. Whichever way we break from this region in the chart I will look to go long or short from it. These are very key levels.
The head and shoulders pattern I mentioned last month is still in play, but we haven't seen a breakdown past the right shoulder yet. For a while there in June we were dangerously close to a major crash that would have confirmed the head and shoulders pattern, taking us down towards 900 on the S&P, but the pattern didn't play out at that time. What happened was that folks became too bearish -- even the financial media was talking about the head and shoulders pattern. This is a good way to get fucked by the market. Whenever a lot of people are focusing on certain technical patterns and fundamentals and their thoughts become mainstream, then most of the time the market will do the opposite as too many people take those positions.
The head and shoulders would be negated should we breach 1150 on this chart. Otherwise we could still see a breakdown.
But the fact of the matter is we are still putting in lower highs and lower lows over the past month, so the trend is still down. Until this is broken it remains down. Lots of resistance in this area right now with the 13/34 EMA's and 1105 key resistance in play, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a breakdown here. Especially because of the new found optimism I've been seeing on CNBC.
So we got several sell signals over the past month or so. The 13 exponential moving average crossed below the 34 exponential moving average on the weekly chart (yellow and red lines), which is a very bearish signal that most of the time confirms and holds. The cross to the downside means the trend is most likely down. Also, we have a sell signal from Geotaxis indicator, which is a bunch of other different moving averages. The 88 week moving average (light blue line) is also another key level to watch, which has held up well on the upside from 2003 to 2007.
Right now we are in a trading range between the two bold red horizontal lines of support and resistance, about 1040 and 1100 on the S&P 500. Whichever way we break from this region in the chart I will look to go long or short from it. These are very key levels.
The head and shoulders pattern I mentioned last month is still in play, but we haven't seen a breakdown past the right shoulder yet. For a while there in June we were dangerously close to a major crash that would have confirmed the head and shoulders pattern, taking us down towards 900 on the S&P, but the pattern didn't play out at that time. What happened was that folks became too bearish -- even the financial media was talking about the head and shoulders pattern. This is a good way to get fucked by the market. Whenever a lot of people are focusing on certain technical patterns and fundamentals and their thoughts become mainstream, then most of the time the market will do the opposite as too many people take those positions.
The head and shoulders would be negated should we breach 1150 on this chart. Otherwise we could still see a breakdown.
But the fact of the matter is we are still putting in lower highs and lower lows over the past month, so the trend is still down. Until this is broken it remains down. Lots of resistance in this area right now with the 13/34 EMA's and 1105 key resistance in play, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a breakdown here. Especially because of the new found optimism I've been seeing on CNBC.
More bad economic news this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...o-330-000-more-than-economists-forecasts.html
This sounds like some massive recovery and the verbiage spurs on hope that the "worst is over." But what the article fails to admit is that June is the start of the Summer home selling season, the time when families change locations so as to not disrupt their kids' schooling. Moreover, the reason why this number is poor is because this is the worst ever recorded new home sales number for June... in history.
Housing prices will continue to fall and there is no stopping it.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2522-Green-Sharts!-Chicago-Fed-Index-0.63.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...o-330-000-more-than-economists-forecasts.html
This sounds like some massive recovery and the verbiage spurs on hope that the "worst is over." But what the article fails to admit is that June is the start of the Summer home selling season, the time when families change locations so as to not disrupt their kids' schooling. Moreover, the reason why this number is poor is because this is the worst ever recorded new home sales number for June... in history.
Housing prices will continue to fall and there is no stopping it.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2522-Green-Sharts!-Chicago-Fed-Index-0.63.html
Horrendous business activity numbers over the past three months from the Richmond Fed. Things are deteriorating rapidly here.
http://www.richmondfed.org/research...ufacturing/2010/mfg_07_27_10.cfm#tabview=tab5
http://www.richmondfed.org/research...ufacturing/2010/mfg_07_27_10.cfm#tabview=tab5
2nd Quarter GDP number out today. Very mediocre number.
From ZeroHedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gdp-misses-expectations-comes-24-plunges-revised-q1-gdp-37
My take:
I don't agree with ZeroHedge's headline, ".. missed expectations..". The GDP number came in line with the lower range of estimates.
The stock futures sold off because of the fact that with the upward revision for Q1, the number presented for Q2 looks worse, IMO.
From ZeroHedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gdp-misses-expectations-comes-24-plunges-revised-q1-gdp-37
My take:
I don't agree with ZeroHedge's headline, ".. missed expectations..". The GDP number came in line with the lower range of estimates.
The stock futures sold off because of the fact that with the upward revision for Q1, the number presented for Q2 looks worse, IMO.