Global Financial Crisis (11 Viewers)

[Bjerknes]

Great article from Karl Deninger, once again.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2354-But,-You-Sputtered,-Im-Just-A-Hack.....html

....

All we've done is pulled forward future demand with more and more debt, and having reached the endpoint of this game where rates start to ramp precipitously (and having seen it happen in both Iceland and Greece) we can no longer play "a dollop of debt and a smile" with our own fiscal profligacy.

Obama and the rest of the merry band of clowns in Washington DC believe that if they can just prop up the stock market "consumer confidence" will return and people will "feel rich." But feeling wealthy and being wealthy are two different things. You may feel wealthy if you have a nice house, a nice car and a nice boat but you aren't in fact wealthy unless you have all of those things, plus enough capital to live off for the rest of your life, without any responsibility to pay anyone else on a continual compound forward basis - that is, unless you are without debt.

If we deal with the facts the stock market will decline precipitously, as profits are very sensitive to revenues, which will decline as production comes in line with actual final private demand. Standards of living will decline too - significantly so. The 3,000 square foot house for the "middle class" and the idea that one can consume $1 million or more of health care without the ability to pay for it will both disappear.

If we don't deal with the facts then the stock market will crash, and the austerity we will face will be far worse. Instead of housing prices reflecting 2-3x annual incomes and the average family of four living in a 1,500 square foot house they will be lucky to live under an overpass. Half the S&P 500 will be rendered bankrupt by ever-increasing demands for more taxation, which they will try to pass on to consumers - who have no money. Medical care will be available - with a one year waiting list for critical procedures, rationing by the most-obvious method - you'll die before your turn comes up. In the extreme case there could even be a breakdown of critical transportation and food infrastructure in the United States.

I want to be bullish on the future of the nation, but until and unless we get the spending under control, which means telling people what the truth is - not necessarily what they want to hear, along with taking the medicine we have avoided for the last two decades - it simply isn't in the cards.

This is no fucking joke. The writing is on the wall, but nobody wants to listen. Keep getting into more debt, keep buying stocks, keep voting for the same old politicians, keep not caring, keep saying the government will save us, keep saying it's not as bad as folks say because, you know, we're recovering! Fucking country.

And another nice little technical analysis tidbit that is easy to understand if you can follow a chart and know history:

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[Bjerknes]

'The eurozone has failed' - Czech President

The Czech Republic President has hit out at the eurozone bloc, saying the union has failed to bring meaningful economic benefits to its members.

Václav Klaus said over the last decade, the economic performance of eurozone countries has diverged and the negative effects of the "straight-jacket" of a single currency had become "more and more visible".

While these problems were not obvious during the 'good weather', they manifested themselves very clearly once the crisis or 'bad weather' arrived, he said.

"As a project that promised to be of considerable economic benefit to its members - the eurozone has failed," he said, in an article written for the Wall St. Journal.

Klaus made the damning criticism after months of turmoil of the single-currency area, in which members states have been forced to back a European Commission-led financial bailout of Greece.

Markets initially rallied on last month's €750bn EU rescue package, but have remained volatile on fears other economically weak member states such as Spain and Portugal could follow Greece's economic collapse.

Klaus said the proposed measures to save the euro would not bring "salvation" for the European economy.

"In the long run, it can be saved only by a radical restructuring of the European economic and social system," he added.

"My country had a velvet revolution and made a radical transformation of its political, economic and social structures.

"Fifteen years ago, I sometimes joked that after entering the EU we should start a velvet revolution there as well. Unfortunately, this ceases to be a joke now."

Friday marks the start of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in South Korea, in which Chancellor George Osborne will urge his counterparts, including from many EU member states, to follow his lead in taking tough measures to tackle their public deficits.

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline/news/1652265/-the-eurozone-failed-czech-president

Gee, who would have thunk it? :rolleyes2

 

[Bjerknes]

Hiring weak in May except for Census workers

PROVIDED BY MarketWatch - 8:30 AM 06/04/2010

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls expanded by a seasonally adjusted 431,000 in May, but virtually all the new jobs were temporary jobs at the U.S. Census, leaving private-sector hiring very weak in May, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding 411,000 temporary Census workers, payrolls rose by 20,000 in May. According to the survey of 400,000 business establishments, private-sector payrolls increased by 41,000, the fifth straight gain. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.7% in May from 9.9% in April, according to a separate survey of 60,000 households. The decline wasn't particularly good news, however, because the drop was due to 322,000 people dropping out of the labor force.

______________________

There is no recovery in private-sector employment, so there is no recovery at all.

Equities took a major hit, down about 2%, led by the S&P futures before the opening bell. Other markets across the globe were down about 3% today, like the CAX.

Ugly.

 

[Bjerknes]

Obama just said that the ADP jobs report was good and that their policies are working.

What a fucking liar. It is so fucking asinine listening to these tards.

 

[Bjerknes]

CRAZY currency moves going on. Absolutely mental.

EUR/USD now below 1.20. We're heading for parity.

 

[BlanquiNegro]

Bump and run reversal
It was the game and will always be
no matter what

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal

 

[juve2]

Obama just said that the ADP jobs report was good and that their policies are working.

What a fucking liar. It is so fucking asinine listening to these tards.

What do you expect him to say? This is only natural and can be expected.

 

[Bjerknes]

Bump and run reversal
It was the game and will always be
no matter what

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal

Pretty much. There are some major problems here in our markets. If we don't have a positive bounce on Monday, from this level on the S&P futures, stocks are going to get killed. This is a pretty scary situation we got going here. The bold horizontal support line, labeled 1066, MUST hold, or else we go sell off pretty heavily next week. But looking at the shape of the chart, especially after 5/21, that is a MAJOR bearish pattern. If we don't bounce and head up towards the 50% fibonacci retrace off this level, creating a possible head and shoulders, we are going to crash hard.

If we break the 1066 support, we go to 1000 on the S&P futures VERY quickly, perhaps even in a day. Then below that if we break 900 on the S&P, I have to say that breaking the March 08 lows is an absolute certainty, with the SPX bottoming out around 300.

SCARY stuff, and I HOPE that we see a head and shoulders pattern on this chart. I am not properly set up if we crash from here.

 

[Bjerknes]

Monthly chart of our S&P 500 index over the last 20 years. Not a pretty picture. If we break down below the two horizontal bold RED lines and stay there, we at least go down to the bottom trendline. This is a very bearish head and shoulders-like pattern.

 

[BlanquiNegro]

Nice readings
BTW Andy where can i get a proper free charts for us markets?
One of my friends who is an expert in technical analysis working for Dutche Bank told me few days ago that DOWJ once closed below 10000 which is an emotionally and technically "10002" important point
once closed below 10000 and confirms that by staying below for 3 consec. sessions, it will start moving toward 9438 as a first supporting point that might reverse the trend upwards again toward the 10000 line ,or in case of its failure in doing that the downtrend will continue its way to the next supporting point which is 9220
IMO
There is an important negative signal in the MACD which is a respectful lag indicator
the MACD failed to positively crosses its signal line in the negative zone "below zero"
and its histogaram failed to continue its way to the zero and then positive zone respectively and this is another negative signal
And by reviewing most of the mom. indicators we can say that there is no buy signal or any other positve sign gives a clue that there is a possibilty for the present downtrend to reverse
no positive divergences, no early posive sings of hitting the bottom at least for now
the DOWJ continues to form lower highs in the 3months time frames
and in the 6 months time frame its obvious that it went below its lower boarder of its ascending channel

the V shape has been formed as expected by most of the experts but now it seems that the trend is about to form the W shape with tow bottoms and in that case we might have a possibility to see the dow near the 6600 again

one last thing
The IPOs market had its good starting but turned to a nightmare recently
as most of the recenlty listed namse are trading below thier initial offering prices
and good puch of them decided to postpon or cancelled the go puplic/listing process

 

[Bjerknes]

Nice readings
BTW Andy where can i get a proper free charts for us markets?

The best "free" equity and forex charts I have seen are from this place:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

They are "real time" charts for most stocks and forex crosses, but not as quick as the pay chart services you can purchase. But still, this site is pretty damn good for not having to pay a cent.

But if you want better charts and have the ability to sign up for a US-based online broker from your respective country, I would take a look at ThinkOrSwim (TOS), my broker. All you have to do is sign up, send in a "signature form" and perhaps an ID form from your own nation, and you will be able to access the TOS desktop trading platform. I actually went months without funding my account a single cent, yet they still allowed me to use the "Paper Trading" account that allows you to access real-time charts and $200,000 of fake capital.

TOS has so many cool tools that you must give it a look. For instance, if you have seen my charts in this thread, I have a lower indicator named "Geotaxis" which is an indicator that takes several moving average crosses to create a single proprietary buy and sell indicator not available to the public. It is an indicator you can script yourself using scripting languages in TOS's ThinkScript. It is something you cannot really find apart from a few other online brokers.

Give TOS a try if the regulations allow a foreigner to setup a TOS account. If not, freestockcharts is still pretty solid.

One of my friends who is an expert in technical analysis working for Dutche Bank told me few days ago that DOWJ once closed below 10000 which is an emotionally and technically "10002" important point
once closed below 10000 and confirms that by staying below for 3 consec. sessions, it will start moving toward 9438 as a first supporting point that might reverse the trend upwards again toward the 10000 line ,or in case of its failure in doing that the downtrend will continue its way to the next supporting point which is 9220

Ehh, everybody knows DOW 10,000 is emotionally important. I will be a contrarian here, though, and say that DOW 10,000 does not mean jack squat. There are more important levels in the S&P 500 and S&P futures that will signal where we are heading from here.

The lesser known major technical levels will be the key areas to make or break the market. I'm talking about the /ES levels around 1066, which we have broken tonight. Although, I bet there were a lot of stop orders around 10,000 on the DOW, which is why we saw more of a decline on the index on Friday.

IMO
There is an important negative signal in the MACD which is a respectful lag indicator
the MACD failed to positively crosses its signal line in the negative zone "below zero"
and its histogaram failed to continue its way to the zero and then positive zone respectively and this is another negative signal

I used to place the MACD on my hourly and daily charts, but I've found that it pisses me off too much. It is indeed a lagging indicator, and has torn my brain out before.

For instance, look at this chart, with the MACD set at 12, 26, and 9 (fast, slow, length). Look at the lengthy positive divergence on this chart, and look at how it dips below the 50-line only for /ES to rally for months. If you were trading /ES with this MACD signal alone, you'd get raped on margin.

So I have turned my back on MACD for the most part. From what I have seen thus far, the lesser known indicators have far better success rates. Think about it -- if everyone piles on to the same trade via a popular indicator, you will get screwed from a historical point of view. Take a look.

I will address the rest of your good post after this one.

 

[Bjerknes]

And by reviewing most of the mom. indicators we can say that there is no buy signal or any other positve sign gives a clue that there is a possibilty for the present downtrend to reverse

Indeed, it does look pretty bleak.

no positive divergences, no early posive sings of hitting the bottom at least for now
the DOWJ continues to form lower highs in the 3months time frames
and in the 6 months time frame its obvious that it went below its lower boarder of its ascending channel

True, good spotting. Lower highs, lower closing lows on the daily charts of the last three months. That high and low trend reversal is very bearish, and it will take a massive effort by the bulls to reverse that.

Take a look at this chart of the SPX (SP500) with the RSI Wilder. Look at how the overbought and oversold levels line up. Can't say much about the validity of this indicator, especially with the October 08 BUY indicator (below the bottom horizontal 30 line) losing quite a lot of handles on the daily chart.

 

[Bjerknes]

the V shape has been formed as expected by most of the experts but now it seems that the trend is about to form the W shape with tow bottoms and in that case we might have a possibility to see the dow near the 6600 again

Nah, this will not be a double bottom. If you take a look at the monthly SPX chart I posted, you will see a trendline running with negative slope from the major lows since 2000. If we break 900, I see us breaking the devilish 666 SPX lows as that will be a retrace of the past 18 years. If you look closely on that MONTHLY chart, there is VERY little support from 1994 until 1999, basically being a parabolic move. Since that is the case, probability theory states that a SHARP move downward below those levels is a likely scenario if we break that bottom trendline.

Rule of thumb... any parabolic move will be followed by a PARABOLIC BLOWOFF at some point. The question is how to get the timing right. A parabolic move could be considered as this past 1.5 year rally.

Your buddy works for Deutsche bank, yeah? Ask him what his major metrics are, and what would push him to ABSOLUTE SELL levels on major indices.

I don't know why an investment banker would look at MACD, though.

one last thing
The IPOs market had its good starting but turned to a nightmare recently
as most of the recenlty listed namse are trading below thier initial offering prices
and good puch of them decided to postpon or cancelled the go puplic/listing process

VERY, VERY bearish indicator.

 

[Bjerknes]

Damnit Deneb, fuck you for getting out of trading. We could so use your insight here and now you cocksucker. I'm fucking weary of this VIX.

 

[juve2]

InsouciantTerrorist if I may ask, what are you trading Forex, stocks,...? And how are the results?

 

[Bjerknes]

InsouciantTerrorist if I may ask, what are you trading Forex, stocks,...? And how are the results?

I have been trading forex for a while now. At first I blew out a couple accounts worth $100 a piece, but that was a learning experience. After that I figured out how to manage risk and not be an idiot. So now my account is positive and I have made money.

Much thanks to the Euro, the easiest trade I have ever seen.

I also traded soybeans for a school project, where I learned a lot as well.

Now I'm getting into exchange traded funds like SPY and SDS. I don't have enough capital to trade futures (requires $25,000 for margin), but holding ETF's for a week or so work pretty well if you have the trade right.

 

[Bjerknes]

Markets About to Turn Nasty, Buy Barbed Wire: Advisor

Bond markets could get very nasty over the coming months, while stock investors could take a few months off and stop attempting to trade volatile swings in the markets, Anthony Fry, senior managing director at Evercore Partners, told CNBC Monday.

“The current problems will be with us for 5 years or more and uncertainty is very high," Fry said.

"Sentiment is extremely volatile as shown by the collapse of the Prudential’s attempt to buy AIA. When the deal was thought up just a few months ago it was a very different world,” Fry told CNBC on Monday.

Fry says the best we can hope for in the current environment is a soft landing, but sees little chance of this happening.

“Look at the current situation. You have Greece, now you have Hungary and huge issues surrounding Spain and Portugal,” he said.

Fry believes many European banks have yet to fess up on losses and says governments across the world are between a rock and a hard place.

“Governments need to cut spending and raise money and if they do not do so credibly will be killed by the bond market demanding higher rates,” he said.

No Exit Strategy

Fry sees three outcomes for the global economy and none of them makes very good reading.

“You can have lower rates and deflation, higher rates and higher inflation or the nightmare scenario of higher rates and deflating asset prices,” he said.

“If the nightmare scenario plays out as I suspect it may then the debt situation gets worse. There is currently no exit strategy and the reaction to the crisis of policy makers remains a big worry.”

As a result, Fry is telling investors to play it safe and buy physical assets like land.

“I don’t want to scare anyone but I am considering investing in barbed wire and guns, things are not looking good and rates are heading higher,” he said.

The comments mirror those of bearish Bob Janjuah from RBS, who told CNBC on Friday that we are facing big stock market losses and told investors to get into gold before G20 governments attempt to throw another $15 trillion in quantitative easing in a bid to jump start the economy.

“The policymakers' response to the crisis has been new debt and this is an old game” said Janjuah.

“Over the next 6 months we will see private sector deflation pushing 10-year yields down to 2 percent," he predicted.

"This will see the policy makers mistakenly attempt to kick start the economy and market with a global quantitative easing program worth between $10 and $15 trillion dollars.”

CNBC

 

[swag]

All I know is that I am currently investing in World Cup tickets. Those friggin' things are like a mortgage by the time you get in the semifinals. :sick:

 

[Bjerknes]

What you should do is create a derivative on whether you'll be able to afford the trip to South Africa. Then when you can't, you'll have your own CDS money to collect.

You'll make out like a bandit and pay for the trip 20 times over due to leverage.

 

[Bjerknes]

More horseshit from this douchebag...

Bernanke: U.S. double dip not likely

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday said his best guess was that the U.S. economy will continue to recover, but that it won't be strong enough to bring unemployment down quickly.

In an interview with ABC News journalist Sam Donaldson at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Bernanke said the U.S. recovery probably began sometime late last summer. The "pretty good news" about the recovery is that consumer spending and business investments appear to be taking over from the fading government stimulus in lifting the economy.

"There are some signs that the private sector is picking up the baton" in helping the recovery, Bernanke said. "My best guess is for a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific."

The U.S. economy is slowly recovering from its worst recession since the 1930s depression that followed the Wall Street Crash. Although recent reports have shown that consumers are spending and companies are investing more, the U.S. economy continues to be hampered by high unemployment and tight lending. Europe's debt crisis, meanwhile, has led to tighter financial conditions in the U.S.

Bernanke said he was concerned that with the economy growing at a moderate pace of between 3.0% and 3.5%, it will take time for the unemployment rate to come down. In turn, he said the high jobless rate could hurt consumer spending. The Fed chief also mentioned tight lending as his second caveat on the recovery.

U.S. employers added jobs at the fastest pace in a decade in May, but the gains were inflated by temporary government hiring for the 2010 Census. Private-sector hiring slowed and the unemployment rate fell only modestly, to 9.7% from 9.9% the previous month.

-By Luca Di Leo, Dow Jones Newswires; 202 862 6682; [email protected]

___________________________

I suppose that since we never recovered from the first dip we can't have a second.

Good one, Bernanke. You're a funny guy.