Global Financial Crisis (6 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,537
What’s the underlying problem here?
There's a lot of problems. Many countries are entering recessions due to the virus, OPEC producers and Russia can't agree on a deal, the crashing oil prices impact banks and US shale producers, central banks are throwing more debt at debt, et cetera. And all of this impacts all sorts of different areas of the economy all over the globe.

The US would probably enter a recession just based on US oil and shale companies not being able to remain competitive with oil prices under 30 a barrel. If this doesn't change quick, there will be a lot of folks out of work in North Dakota, Texas, and Oklahoma. Also, I'm sure lots of banks have been or used to be long oil, and that 30% drop overnight in oil is going to blow out a bunch of people. Credit default swaps are going through the roof right now, similar to 2008.
 

Ronn

#TeamPestoFlies
May 3, 2012
12,146
There's a lot of problems. Many countries are entering recessions due to the virus, OPEC producers and Russia can't agree on a deal, the crashing oil prices impact banks and US shale producers, central banks are throwing more debt at debt, et cetera. And all of this impacts all sorts of different areas of the economy all over the globe.

The US would probably enter a recession just based on US oil and shale companies not being able to remain competitive with oil prices under 30 a barrel. If this doesn't change quick, there will be a lot of folks out of work in North Dakota, Texas, and Oklahoma. Also, I'm sure lots of banks have been or used to be long oil, and that 30% drop overnight in oil is going to blow out a bunch of people. Credit default swaps are going through the roof right now, similar to 2008.
I get the cause, but to enter a major collapse or crisis you’d need something more systemic like housing bubble of 2006-2008, don’t you think?
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,537
I get the cause, but to enter a major collapse or crisis you’d need something more systemic like housing bubble of 2006-2008, don’t you think?
We have something even worse potentially -- which is the debt bubble. That is the mother of all bubbles. Once that pops, it will be even worse than in 2008/2009. I don't know if this is the time for that, but it seems like whenever there are huge moves in oil and dysfunction in the bond market, something very big is up. To me, it doesn't seem like it's just the virus, which would cause recessions in several countries alone simply due to travel being hindered. This doesn't seem very good at all here.
 

JCK

Biased
Premium
May 11, 2004
113,008
There's a lot of problems. Many countries are entering recessions due to the virus, OPEC producers and Russia can't agree on a deal, the crashing oil prices impact banks and US shale producers, central banks are throwing more debt at debt, et cetera. And all of this impacts all sorts of different areas of the economy all over the globe.

The US would probably enter a recession just based on US oil and shale companies not being able to remain competitive with oil prices under 30 a barrel. If this doesn't change quick, there will be a lot of folks out of work in North Dakota, Texas, and Oklahoma. Also, I'm sure lots of banks have been or used to be long oil, and that 30% drop overnight in oil is going to blow out a bunch of people. Credit default swaps are going through the roof right now, similar to 2008.
The recession started half a year before COVID, with the virus it is becoming more a reality to more people who were not aware of it or ignored to admit it.

In my opinion, this time around it will be worse than 2008.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,537
S&P 500 trading halted for 15 minutes, we tripped the 7% circuit breaker. There's no confidence in this market at all now.

- - - Updated - - -

The recession started half a year before COVID, with the virus it is becoming more a reality to more people who were not aware of it or ignored to admit it.

In my opinion, this time around it will be worse than 2008.
It very well could be, especially if this trigger the debt blowout.
 
OP
OP
Dostoevsky

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
81,912
We have something even worse potentially -- which is the debt bubble. That is the mother of all bubbles. Once that pops, it will be even worse than in 2008/2009. I don't know if this is the time for that, but it seems like whenever there are huge moves in oil and dysfunction in the bond market, something very big is up. To me, it doesn't seem like it's just the virus, which would cause recessions in several countries alone simply due to travel being hindered. This doesn't seem very good at all here.
I hope we never get to see this. If that happens it's gonna crush everything down. I can't even write the number of the US debt at the moment, it's beyond crazy.

But yeah, this situation looks quite scary at the moment. Even ETH fell for like 25-30% over the night.

It's crazy how much of the market corona is melting right now. It seems people are losing trust and that's always deadly.
 
OP
OP
Dostoevsky

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
81,912
Interruptions on the stock exchange after respectively S&P 500 lost 7%, Dow Jones 7,26%, etc.

From a reliable news this fall is the most notable since the first gulf war 1991
Unlike the previous history I'd say globalization is bringing a much deadlier blow due to offshore companies where production is in other hands and moved to Asia or somewhere. It's scary how many huge problems can appear "out of nowhere".
 

campionesidd

Senior Member
Mar 16, 2013
8,645
What are your guys opinions on the Tech industry.
Tech stocks are ridiculously overpriced. Especially talking about companies like Tesla and Netflix, who get a lot of buzz in media, but whose underlying financials are dodgy at best and downright worrisome at worst.
 

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