Taliban will have control of the country for the foreseeable future. This time around I don't think they will be viewed as a pariah state as they were in the 90's. And that comes down to the fact that they were in large part politically legitimized through the Doha peace deal and because they have managed to broaden their foreign affairs from being entirely Pakistan centered. Currently the Taliban has positive relations with the likes of China, Russia and Iran and in due time imo they will be recognized by those countries with the West eventually following suit. The only thing which could serve as a spoiler for this is the fact that former President Ashraf Ghani, did not resign as president prior to leaving the country.
Regarding any counter-movements rising within Afghanistan, the likelihood of an effective opposition forming is rather low. The Taliban and Pakistan established a positive rapport with their former adversaries from the 90's, the warlords of the "Northern Alliance." That is why the north, which is not traditionally seen as a Taliban stronghold, fell like a house of cards before any other part of the country. Warlords are the dominant force in those areas rather than the government and they ordered their forces to stand down in the face of Taliban advances.
For an uprising to take place, weapons and cash will be needed. And unfortunately, most of the weapons stashes and billions upon billions of siphoned funds are in the bank accounts of the warlords.
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The leadership of the Northern Alliance is currently lobbying in Pakistan. They are the utmost traitors to Afghanistan. These individuals are responsible for both of the Taliban's rises to power. First in the 90's, their destruction of Kabul and mass rape gave way for the vulnerable Afghan people to be taken advantage of by the Taliban. And then from 2001-14, when the warlords had full control of the government, instead rebuilding the country and bringing about a positive new chapter in our history, they opted to stuff billions into foreign bank accounts and act as strongmen throughout the country. Their treachery and excesses gave way to the Taliban's reemergence in 2004.
Regarding any counter-movements rising within Afghanistan, the likelihood of an effective opposition forming is rather low. The Taliban and Pakistan established a positive rapport with their former adversaries from the 90's, the warlords of the "Northern Alliance." That is why the north, which is not traditionally seen as a Taliban stronghold, fell like a house of cards before any other part of the country. Warlords are the dominant force in those areas rather than the government and they ordered their forces to stand down in the face of Taliban advances.
For an uprising to take place, weapons and cash will be needed. And unfortunately, most of the weapons stashes and billions upon billions of siphoned funds are in the bank accounts of the warlords.
- - - Updated - - -
- - - Updated - - -
The leadership of the Northern Alliance is currently lobbying in Pakistan. They are the utmost traitors to Afghanistan. These individuals are responsible for both of the Taliban's rises to power. First in the 90's, their destruction of Kabul and mass rape gave way for the vulnerable Afghan people to be taken advantage of by the Taliban. And then from 2001-14, when the warlords had full control of the government, instead rebuilding the country and bringing about a positive new chapter in our history, they opted to stuff billions into foreign bank accounts and act as strongmen throughout the country. Their treachery and excesses gave way to the Taliban's reemergence in 2004.
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