IMO competition for 4th place will be between Arsenal and Tottenham.
Tottenham is a very good team and they found their form lately, they built even stronger squad than last season when they have been robbed of their 4th place by Arsenal in the last game.
1. Chelsea
2. ManUre
3. Liverpool
4. Arsenal/Tottenham
At first, I thought Spurs would be too far out due to their atrocious form at the beginning of the season, but I realize they are only two points out. Whilst Arsenal starts as a favorite, I wouldnt entirely rule out Tottenham idea. Good call Mark.
So I decided to break down the schedule list to see how hard for each team to gain a point from here on
Arsenal
Sat, 23rd H Blackburn (PREM.)
15:00 -
Tue, 26th A Watford (PREM.)
17:30 -
Sat, 30th A Sheff Utd (PREM.)
17:15 -
January
Tue, 2nd H Charlton (PREM.)
19:45 -
Sat, 6th A Liverpool (F.A.)
17:15 -
Tue, 9th A Liverpool (C.C.)
19:45 -
Sat, 13th A Blackburn (PREM.)
17:15 -
Sun, 21st H Man Utd (PREM.)
16:00 -
Tue, 30th H Man City (PREM.)
19:45 -
February
Sat, 3rd A Middlesbro (PREM.)
17:15 -
Sun, 11th H Wigan (PREM.)
16:00 -
Tue, 20th A PSV (U.C.L.)
19:45 -
Sat, 24th A Aston Villa (PREM.)
15:00 -
March
Sat, 3rd H Reading (PREM.)
15:00 -
Wed, 7th H PSV (U.C.L.)
19:45 -
Sat, 17th A Everton (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 31st A Liverpool (PREM.)
15:00 -
April
Sat, 7th H West Ham (PREM.)
15:00 -
Mon, 9th A Newcastle (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 14th H Bolton (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 21st A Tottenham (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 28th H Fulham (PREM.)
15:00 -
May
Sat, 5th H Chelsea (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sun, 13th A Portsmouth (PREM.)
15:00 -
Arsenal have 10 home matches, and out of these only 3 looks like a difficult tie. 7wins 2draw 1 loss seems like reasonable, but more realistically I think 6 wins 3draws 1loss is likely on their present form. But the fixture we have to really focus is their away ones. Apart from the two coming up in next week or so, all their away games are losable ones. So as a reply to our dear friend North Bank, who claimed not winning at home doesnt matter as long as you pick points somewhere else, it seems Arsenal points picked up were partly due to the favoring schedule they faced. Yes Arsenal has been pretty solid with a win in Old Trafford and a draw against Chelsea, but they also lost to Bolton and Fulham. As I have said, Arsenal has to win those home bankers from now on for the European places.
Here is Spurs Fixture
Sat, 23rd A Newcastle (PREM.)
15:00 -
Tue, 26th H Aston Villa (PREM.)
13:00 -
Sat, 30th H Liverpool (PREM.)
15:00 -
January
Mon, 1st A Portsmouth (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sun, 7th A Cardiff (F.A.)
16:00 -
Sun, 14th H Newcastle (PREM.)
16:00 -
Sat, 20th A Fulham (PREM.)
15:00 -
Wed, 31st A Everton (PREM.)
20:00 -
February
Sun, 4th H Man Utd (PREM.)
16:00 -
Sat, 10th A Sheff Utd (PREM.)
15:00 -
Wed, 14th A Feyenoord (UEFA)
0:00 -
Thu, 22nd H Feyenoord (UEFA)
0:00 -
Sat, 24th H Bolton (PREM.)
15:00 -
March
Sat, 3rd A West Ham (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 17th H Watford (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 31st H Reading (PREM.)
15:00 -
April
Sat, 7th A Chelsea (PREM.)
15:00 -
Mon, 9th H Blackburn (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 14th A Wigan (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 21st H Arsenal (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sat, 28th A Middlesbro (PREM.)
15:00 -
May
Sat, 5th A Charlton (PREM.)
15:00 -
Sun, 13th H Man City (PREM.)
Without going into details, unlike Arsenal, a lot of Spurs hard game is at home. Now I don't think they are going to win all those. My bet is they are lucky to win half of those matches and pick up odd draw or two along the way. Just like Arsenal's away form was largely a factor of schedule they faced, Tottenham's good home record is a product of playing inferior opposition. But their away fixture isnt anywhere near as that of Gunners, and even considering their dismal away from, you would expect them to pick up points along the way, especially towards end of season.
On the balance of things, it seems Arsenal have somewhat more difficult fixtures coming up. And (2) they have favorable schedule early meetings from now on, whilst Spurs enjoy milder games towards the end (This is exact opposite from last season). I feel Arsenal has to be about 6 points clear with 4 or 5 games to go to be safe.