Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (12 Viewers)

IliveForJuve

Burn this club
Jan 17, 2011
18,399
I want to watch games in a pub again, Covid should go just to hell slowly but surely
*Laughs in British* poor soul.

Well, my only worry was that Omicron doesn't give immunity vs Delta and other variants, but so far the data shows that luckily it does give immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1

Second paper shows that previous infection with Delta and vaccination give immune protection vs Omicron. And most likely Omicron infection give immune protection vs Delta. The first paper shows that Omicron is displacing Delta in Denmark.

The problem with your logic is that Delta mutations must provide a new strain that is more transmissible than Omicron. This is basically impossible because Omicron is coming from another evolutionary strain of the Covid virus tree. It's multiple times more transmissible than the Delta variants. In a month or so Omicron will be the dominant variant all over the world and it will give immunity vs the other strains too. Not only that but it will suffocate the other variants.

Here's the evolutionary tree of Omicron.

omicron.png


As you can see it's completely different than the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Only from the branch of Omicron could be another strain as infectious. And the new strain from the Omicron branch should also be more lethal and capable of evading the natural immunity from previous infections... It's next to impossible.
Or with people catching Delta and Omicron simultaneously we could see a "Frankenstrain" - a hybrid that could be worse than any other variant.
 

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swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,441
Well, my only worry was that Omicron doesn't give immunity vs Delta and other variants, but so far the data shows that luckily it does give immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1

Second paper shows that previous infection with Delta and vaccination give immune protection vs Omicron. And most likely Omicron infection give immune protection vs Delta. The first paper shows that Omicron is displacing Delta in Denmark.

The problem with your logic is that Delta mutations must provide a new strain that is more transmissible than Omicron. This is basically impossible because Omicron is coming from another evolutionary strain of the Covid virus tree. It's multiple times more transmissible than the Delta variants. In a month or so Omicron will be the dominant variant all over the world and it will give immunity vs the other strains too. Not only that but it will suffocate the other variants.

Here's the evolutionary tree of Omicron.

omicron.png


As you can see it's completely different than the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Only from the branch of Omicron could be another strain as infectious. And the new strain from the Omicron branch should also be more lethal and capable of evading the natural immunity from previous infections... It's next to impossible.
But next to impossible isn’t 0%, per your 100% claim.

Agreed that we seem the closest to anything with potential herd immunity. But we’re still talking about millions and millions of people carrying infection - more than ever before. And hence more opportunity for mutation than ever before.

Omicron’s spread doesn’t mean mutation stops. That’s why I can’t go to 100% as you did.


More and more good news. We're basically entering the endemic phase. :weee:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-me...il&utm_term=0_2e166c1fc1-57cd25901b-536960754

Great graph that shows cases vs hospitalizations, patients on ventilation and deaths. For example cases in Germany are skyrocketing but hospitalizations, deaths and patients on ventilation are going down. Amazing.
Except that’s actually not the case in the US.

https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022...deaths-rising-during-the-omicron-wave-n441786

And this is from HotAir, which is about as Covid skeptic as politicized news publishers get.
 

kao_ray

Senior Member
Feb 28, 2014
6,567
Except that’s actually not the case in the US.

https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022...deaths-rising-during-the-omicron-wave-n441786

And this is from HotAir, which is about as Covid skeptic as politicized news publishers get.
I'm curious what the data will show in 2-3 weeks for the US. I guess then we'll have a more clear view.
Omicron is a lot less virulent than Delta but is not a 100% safe. My guess is that people with many comorbidities are at risk even from a minor cold or infection. I guess there are a lot of bad health habits in the US. Sadly...
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,441
I'm curious what the data will show in 2-3 weeks for the US. I guess then we'll have a more clear view.
Omicron is a lot less virulent than Delta but is not a 100% safe. My guess is that people with many comorbidities are at risk even from a minor cold or infection. I guess there are a lot of bad health habits in the US. Sadly...
The U.S. isn’t a small population and it has a lot of resources, so it’s strange because it seems like an anomaly compared to most “developed” nations.

It is odd that deaths and infections seem decoupled in Western Europe but not the US. But the US also hasn’t fully ridden out a second wave of Delta as happened in Europe already.
 

ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
45,996
Apparently you can just smoke weed and that’ll inhibit the coronavirus from entering your cells. All this money being throw around when the cure has been available forever.
 

AFL_ITALIA

MAGISTERIAL
Jun 17, 2011
29,596

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