Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (145 Viewers)

Ronn

#TeamPestoFlies
May 3, 2012
19,632
I love how you are making fun of Trump but the other option was Hillary. :inter:

WTF is wrong with the most advanced country in the world when the two main presidential candidates are Trump and Hillary Clinton... And now it looks it will be Biden and Trump... WTF
What’s the likelihood for Hillary to do so much stupid shit as Trump? She was awful yet 1000 times better than this criminally insane buffoon.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,515
The article suggested that a depression could be avoided with proper social safety nets (money to consumers). That's inherently false since depressions are long-term recessions, and recessions are a lack of GDP growth. No amount of government spending will solve a problem that is actually created by government, which is what the shutdown is. We can talk about pandemic preparedness all we want, but really, no government has truly been prepared for this, nor can they stop economic contraction when they place restrictions on economic activity. Hell, even if economies were totally open at this point, consumer confidence being low could still throw us into recession.

Conversely, lots of papers have been written on how the great depression could have been avoided by injecting liquidity into the banking system. Banks went under, people couldn't get credit, and money and jobs disappeared. That's why current and former Fed chairs claim they need monetary policy measures to pump liquidity into the system, which is basically cheap or free money to banks. Keynesian economists like Bernanke and Stiglitz argue this all the time. Compared to previous economic calamities, the response to Covid from the Fed and Treasury has widely been considered the fastest in history, thus staving off a potential credit lockdown. But for some reason, you don't see Stiglitz mention that -- wonder why? I don't even agree with the premise, but clearly Stiglitz has an agenda.
You're absolutely right from a technical definition of a depression, but I didn't interpret the article's use of "depression" in a technical context. The article isn't framed for quant economists. Thus Goodhart's Law applies here. The metric isn't the real concern, it's merely a measurable proxy.

I think you're still coming at it from the perspective of a cure rather than prevention. A social safety net doesn't appear by snapping your fingers with a big government spend, especially with regards to how its existence would help mitigate the problem. The horse is already out of the barn. The lack of social safety nets is part of what is making the great American pandemic experiment such a clusterf%$k right now. Suggesting that this somehow works ex post facto is like telling a morbidly obese person who needs a liver transplant to start exercising and eating healthy to avoid the surgery.

Claiming no government was prepared for this is a bit of a cop-out though, really. At least for the US. South Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan should have been the performance bar that the US calibrated itself to, not Brazil. It doesn't take an economist to tell you that not only do those countries come out the other end of lockdowns sooner, but they come out medically and economically healthier. Even if consumer confidence is damaged for a long while no regardless of where you live.

Oh, Stiglitz has his biases and agenda alright. And these days sometimes my mind is correlating the war on inflation with the death of the middle class, even if correlation is not causation. I can't see how much more negative you can make interest rates go to become like oil futures as a fix. So this is going to be a mess with lots of long-term secondary and tertiary side-effects.

yeah, the US is really looking like a 3rd world country in regards to testing
How many months have we been saying this now?

Congrats on burning a budget hole on presidential snake oil.

I learn so much from Donald Trump coronavirus briefings.

Today, I discovered that one can be cured of this by shining powerful UV light inside the body, and then injecting disinfectants into the lungs. :weee:

The president of the United States, ladies and gents. An extremely stable genius.


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Curious to see how long before some dumb MAGA deplorables drink bleach or Isopropyl to cure themselves. :lol2:
There is something to be said for shooting a light up someone's ass...

Sociopaths don't mourn.
 
OP
Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,703
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  • Thread Starter #6,214
    You're absolutely right from a technical definition of a depression, but I didn't interpret the article's use of "depression" in a technical context. The article isn't framed for quant economists. Thus Goodhart's Law applies here. The metric isn't the real concern, it's merely a measurable proxy.

    I think you're still coming at it from the perspective of a cure rather than prevention. A social safety net doesn't appear by snapping your fingers with a big government spend, especially with regards to how its existence would help mitigate the problem. The horse is already out of the barn. The lack of social safety nets is part of what is making the great American pandemic experiment such a clusterf%$k right now. Suggesting that this somehow works ex post facto is like telling a morbidly obese person who needs a liver transplant to start exercising and eating healthy to avoid the surgery.

    Claiming no government was prepared for this is a bit of a cop-out though, really. At least for the US. South Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan should have been the performance bar that the US calibrated itself to, not Brazil. It doesn't take an economist to tell you that not only do those countries come out the other end of lockdowns sooner, but they come out medically and economically healthier. Even if consumer confidence is damaged for a long while no regardless of where you live.

    Oh, Stiglitz has his biases and agenda alright. And these days sometimes my mind is correlating the war on inflation with the death of the middle class, even if correlation is not causation. I can't see how much more negative you can make interest rates go to become like oil futures as a fix. So this is going to be a mess with lots of long-term secondary and tertiary side-effects.
    I automatically toss out anything China says from the equation since they'd silently kill people even without the virus, so they shouldn't even be considered in a discussion of pandemic preparedness. And I'd actually argue that since they intentionally mislead the world at the onset of the outbreak, that's a soft declaration of war against the planet. If you want to use South Korea as an example, that makes sense to me, but once again they are a relatively small country compared to the US, plus their population is extremely homogeneous. These are complex matters and there are far too many folks here and elsewhere that treat this disaster (and others) as if it's a singular experiment in a vacuum. The reality is that we're dealing with a multitude of variables here. I wouldn't expect any government to handle this well, because well, it's government. So obviously my expectations are low.

    Obviously having better testing capabilities and functioning "Get My Payment from the IRS"/PPP Programs would help individuals stay on their feet. But Keynesian economists have this reoccurring issue where they use technical economic terminology that have meaning in economics to describe matters that don't make sense economically. It would be one thing if they created a new discipline and language to describe their theories, which is more of a study of how government interjects itself into economies with the assumption that governments have endless resources and leaders with 200 IQ's.
     

    Post Ironic

    Senior Member
    Feb 9, 2013
    41,973
    Andy still doing anything to defend his beloved Donald. :lol2:

    Trump and his sycophantic cronies were still calling this a hoax and a big fat nothing burger at the start of March while watching thousands of Italians die. Trump was claiming there would be zero cases in America, and that he had already beaten the pandemic at the end of February. Trump, at the height of the pandemic this month with 2500 people dying each day was telling people in some of the hardest hit states like Michigan to go out onto the streets and protest, ignoring social distancing measures his own administration ostensibly supports. And now he’s suggesting we research injecting household disinfectants/cleaners inside the body along with internal UV lights to cure it lol

    But let’s act like every government has responded to this with Trump-level incompetence. :baus:

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    Sorry, was in hospital getting my sphincter burns treated... but can say, the Donald was right! I am cured of the corona! :snoop:
     
    Last edited:
    OP
    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
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    Andy still doing anything to defend his beloved Donald. :lol2:

    Trump and his sycophantic cronies were still calling this a hoax and a big fat nothing burger at the start of March while watching thousands of Italians die. Trump was claiming there would be zero cases in America, and that he had already beaten the pandemic at the end of February. Trump, at the height of the pandemic this month with 2500 people dying each day was telling people in some of the hardest hit states like Michigan to go out onto the streets and protest, ignoring social distancing measures his own administration ostensibly supports. And now he’s suggesting we research injecting household disinfectants/cleaners inside the body along with internal UV lights to cure it lol

    But, let’s act like every government has responded to this with Trump-level incompetence. :baus:

    - - - Updated - - -



    Sorry, was in hospital getting my sphincter burns treated... but can say, the Donald was right! I am cured of the corona! :snoop:
    I don't really care what he says, to be honest. Obviously his advice on some of these matters is nonsense. But judging how you're a huge Keynesian, you should be praising Trump and his administration for his record-breaking response via the Treasury and Fed in injecting liquidity and setting up stimulus programs, while also enacting a shutdown that now looks like it will be extended. You should be defending Trump here, not me. :D
     

    Post Ironic

    Senior Member
    Feb 9, 2013
    41,973
    I don't really care what he says, to be honest. Obviously his advice on some of these matters is nonsense. But judging how you're a huge Keynesian, you should be praising Trump and his administration for his record-breaking response via the Treasury and Fed in injecting liquidity and setting up stimulus programs, while also enacting a shutdown that now looks like it will be extended. You should be defending Trump here, not me. :D
    Defending him? Lol

    Trump and his friends have purposefully attempted to leave the poorest and most vulnerable out of every single program thus far. The freedom caucus style republicans and Trump have assailed and done all they can to destroy Medicare, welfare, and your country’s entire social security net. Record breaking response?. Yeah, desperate election ploy after fucking everything up for years. Extended lockdown? Yeah, forced into this by two months of inaction allowing it to spread freely while calling it a hoax while his admin briefed republican congressman so they could cash out on the stock market.

    Sorry, but I’ll stick to enjoying that my country actually gives a shit about its poor and at least makes the attempt to take care of them. I’m still working away, but I’m more than happy the government is supporting those who can’t right now.
     
    OP
    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,703
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #6,218
    Defending him? Lol

    Trump and his friends have purposefully attempted to leave the poorest and most vulnerable out of every single program thus far. The freedom caucus style republicans and Trump have assailed and done all they can to destroy Medicare, welfare, and your country’s entire social security net. Record breaking response?. Yeah, desperate election ploy after fucking everything up for years. Extended lockdown? Yeah, forced into this by two months of inaction allowing it to spread freely while calling it a hoax while his admin briefed republican congressman so they could cash out on the stock market.

    Sorry, but I’ll stick to enjoying that my country actually gives a shit about its poor and at least makes the attempt to take care of them. I’m still working away, but I’m more than happy the government is supporting those who can’t right now.
    You're entitled to your opinion, even though I think some of it is hyperbole. But I'm also entitled to mine despite the fact I'm very much in the minority on this forum. Guess it's still better than the CNN comments section. ;)
     

    Post Ironic

    Senior Member
    Feb 9, 2013
    41,973
    You're entitled to your opinion, even though I think some of it is hyperbole. But I'm also entitled to mine despite the fact I'm very much in the minority on this forum. Guess it's still better than the CNN comments section. ;)
    Of course you are. And you’re one of the very few Trump voters who has an opinion I actually care to hear and respect (to a degree ;) ) even if I disagree with it often.
     

    swag

    L'autista
    Administrator
    Sep 23, 2003
    83,515
    I automatically toss out anything China says from the equation since they'd silently kill people even without the virus, so they shouldn't even be considered in a discussion of pandemic preparedness. And I'd actually argue that since they intentionally mislead the world at the onset of the outbreak, that's a soft declaration of war against the planet.
    You can't trust squat out of a China mouthpiece, no question. That said, people getting worked up about China trying to keep a lid on it is more than a bit hypocritical ... as in 194 countries agreed that protecting trade and tourism was more important than public health. I keep going back to this:
    https://pandemic.substack.com/p/the-2005-decision-that-made-the-2020

    It's pretty clear 194 countries wanted to be the beach town mayor in Jaws, and China drew the lucky card this time.

    If you want to use South Korea as an example, that makes sense to me, but once again they are a relatively small country compared to the US, plus their population is extremely homogeneous. These are complex matters and there are far too many folks here and elsewhere that treat this disaster (and others) as if it's a singular experiment in a vacuum. The reality is that we're dealing with a multitude of variables here. I wouldn't expect any government to handle this well, because well, it's government. So obviously my expectations are low.
    That is absolutely true, which is why the impacts on the USA are much more uneven ... but seem to be evening out more over time though. But South Korea is still 50 million people, which is bigger than California. So it's not Singapore. And they have population density to boot, which is probably the very biggest determining factors in the spread of the disease ... at least at these initial stages.

    The fascinating thing to me about South Korea is that around late February when China had administered about 200k tests, South Korea managed to do 30k tests in its first few days of testing... as it was just getting off the ground. Meanwhile the US had only done about 420 and probably didn't reach the 30k mark in that timeframe until a couple of weeks ago.

    Obviously having better testing capabilities and functioning "Get My Payment from the IRS"/PPP Programs would help individuals stay on their feet. But Keynesian economists have this reoccurring issue where they use technical economic terminology that have meaning in economics to describe matters that don't make sense economically. It would be one thing if they created a new discipline and language to describe their theories, which is more of a study of how government interjects itself into economies with the assumption that governments have endless resources and leaders with 200 IQ's.
    The IRS/PPP stuff helps. But we also need people to have basic access to healthcare to keep the wildfires from spreading. Repealing Obamacare without anything close to a replacement is going to keep the economy shut down more severely and for longer.

    And that story about the fundamental, almost Bayesian-like, assumptions of existing conditions for Keynesian economists only reminds me of:

    x3vj4cy2-1408600511.jpg
     

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