i see it this way. beating Malmo in 2 games is a must, especially after last 2 seasons (Nordsjealand, Copenhagen), and it is very important to do so in order to fight for the 1st place in the group. the players know that, Max knows that, and im sure they will have a much more serious approach to this games than last 2 seasons... 6pts
Olympiacos is the team i think we might "underestimate", especially in Turin. they're a very solid team and could cause us lots of problems in one of the 2 games. one win against them will guarantee us to pass the group, i believe... 4-6pts
Atletico will challenge for the 1st place, thats for sure. we dont even need to win against them to pass the group but it might matter which position do you enter the round of 16 from. i cant see them beating us twice, and if we really need a win at the time we play them, we can definietly beat them... 1-4pts
so 10pts in the worst case scenario that i think might happen and we would still pass the group. 16 points is the maximum we might get here i think (i doubt we'd play for a win if we have already 15 pts), but all in all, we are passing the group. not sure if i want that 1st place though as it didnt really matter in the last few years. there are allways some stronger teams in pot 2 than pot 1 so it isnt that important to win 1st place (except for prestige and coefficient)