American NFL Football (111 Viewers)
- Thread starter Torkel
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Wow, what a schedule for the Niners this year.
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Sun, Sep 15
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Indianapolis
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Thu, Sep 26
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St. Louis
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Houston
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Arizona
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10
Sun, Nov 10
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Carolina
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New Orleans
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Washington
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St. Louis
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Mon, Dec 23
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Atlanta
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Arizona
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Green Bay
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Sun, Sep 15
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Sun, Sep 22
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Indianapolis
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Thu, Sep 26
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St. Louis
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Sun, Oct 6
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Houston
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Sun, Oct 13
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Arizona
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Sun, Oct 20
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Tennessee
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Jacksonville
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10
Sun, Nov 10
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Carolina
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11
Sun, Nov 17
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New Orleans
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Mon, Nov 25
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Washington
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Sun, Dec 1
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St. Louis
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14
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Seattle
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15
Sun, Dec 15
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Tampa Bay
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Mon, Dec 23
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They really do need to get some depth on that Defensive line and in the secondary though, Aaron.
They got exposed in the playoffs when Justin Smith was not at 100%. Amazing what an injury to one player does to an entire defense. I would rather they draft a DL, Safety, and Another CB with their first three picks, then go after a WR in the third, a TE in the tird, just maybe take a chamce on Marcus Lattimore with their 4th. Redshirt him for a year and let him get healthy
They got exposed in the playoffs when Justin Smith was not at 100%. Amazing what an injury to one player does to an entire defense. I would rather they draft a DL, Safety, and Another CB with their first three picks, then go after a WR in the third, a TE in the tird, just maybe take a chamce on Marcus Lattimore with their 4th. Redshirt him for a year and let him get healthy
a move like that would take up a lot of early draft picks and most of your picks are in the 5th and later rounds.
would have to be for a targeted, unique player as that, again, would deplete to a good extend your picks in the earlier rounds, where you don't have as many picks really.
Austin is one such player, I think, although if he would be worth a move like that is a diff story. Datone jones over Richardson imo as Jones is a player very similar to J. Smith. I honestly can't think of another, similarly unique player in this draft - Richardson is very good too but probably not that good and unique imo - Jesse Williams, Sly Williams, Short are players that could fall to you without having to move up that high.
Floyd is a player similar to Richardson but i wouldn't move so high for him. Vaccaro is probably gonna be the 1st safety taken but again not unique enough imo to warrant the cost of moving 15-18 spots.
Best guess would be you may be exploring the possibility of moving up in case someone like Lotulelei or Milliner fall deeper than expected or trying to get your own Percey harvin in Austin. For Datone Jones you probably won't have much competition till the 19th pick (Giants), so moving up for him should be "cheaper" than for someone like Richardson or Floyd and possibly even a better fit too.
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I can see Mingo end up being a bust in the NFL, tbh.
would have to be for a targeted, unique player as that, again, would deplete to a good extend your picks in the earlier rounds, where you don't have as many picks really.
Austin is one such player, I think, although if he would be worth a move like that is a diff story. Datone jones over Richardson imo as Jones is a player very similar to J. Smith. I honestly can't think of another, similarly unique player in this draft - Richardson is very good too but probably not that good and unique imo - Jesse Williams, Sly Williams, Short are players that could fall to you without having to move up that high.
Floyd is a player similar to Richardson but i wouldn't move so high for him. Vaccaro is probably gonna be the 1st safety taken but again not unique enough imo to warrant the cost of moving 15-18 spots.
Best guess would be you may be exploring the possibility of moving up in case someone like Lotulelei or Milliner fall deeper than expected or trying to get your own Percey harvin in Austin. For Datone Jones you probably won't have much competition till the 19th pick (Giants), so moving up for him should be "cheaper" than for someone like Richardson or Floyd and possibly even a better fit too.
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I can see Mingo end up being a bust in the NFL, tbh.
I am not saying you don't have the ammo to move up, I am just saying that it would cost you a lot - probably at least both 2nd rounders + a 3rd + a 4th, and it's really the picks in the top 3 rounds where you get most of your diff makers. There is a decent chance that unless it's a kicker or a punter, none of your 5th and later rounders make the team as you guys don't have that many spots available anyway. So, if they are gonna do that, it better be for a truly unique player because it would cost you most of the picks from which you will likely get players that would make the roster this season.
Niners have a lot of picks this year more than they can use really and most of those picks come in the late rounds of the draft, where you are not very likely to find many players who'd make it onto an already well- stocked roster. Also, when you are trading up so highly in the 1st round, your trading partner is unlikely to want in return picks in the later rounds but would target your picks in the 2-3 rounds and use later round picks more as make-weight deal-sweeteners than anything else - i.e. no team is likely to want to include a bunch of 5th, 6th and 7th round picks in a deal where they drop 15-20 spots in the first.
What I am trying to say is that most of the picks you have could well be pretty useless in trying to move up big time in the first round. And moving up like that would deplete the picks you have in the top 3 rounds where you are likely to get players who'd be an improvement on your roster.
E.g. say you want to move from 31 to 13 - this would likely leave you with that 13 and a 3rd in the top 3 rounds. Ort say you want to move to 19 - this could well leave you with that 19th pick and a late 2nd, maybe a 3rd too but then your chances of finding your "targeted" player at 19 drop quite a bit too.
Niners have a lot of picks this year more than they can use really and most of those picks come in the late rounds of the draft, where you are not very likely to find many players who'd make it onto an already well- stocked roster. Also, when you are trading up so highly in the 1st round, your trading partner is unlikely to want in return picks in the later rounds but would target your picks in the 2-3 rounds and use later round picks more as make-weight deal-sweeteners than anything else - i.e. no team is likely to want to include a bunch of 5th, 6th and 7th round picks in a deal where they drop 15-20 spots in the first.
What I am trying to say is that most of the picks you have could well be pretty useless in trying to move up big time in the first round. And moving up like that would deplete the picks you have in the top 3 rounds where you are likely to get players who'd be an improvement on your roster.
E.g. say you want to move from 31 to 13 - this would likely leave you with that 13 and a 3rd in the top 3 rounds. Ort say you want to move to 19 - this could well leave you with that 19th pick and a late 2nd, maybe a 3rd too but then your chances of finding your "targeted" player at 19 drop quite a bit too.
Did you just explain to Sergio that late picks aren't worth as much as early picks? 
And a guy who's HOF QB was drafted in the 6th round is now telling us that teams typically only find kickers and punters from the 5th round on (luckily 7/13 picks are in the first 4 rounds, isn't it?)? I know where you're going with that, but... jeez.
in 2010 it cost us a 4th to move from 13 to 11, we spent a fourth and a fifth to move from 45 to 36 for Kaep. Let's just see who's sliding, who's in demand, and how far the 9 want to move up, before putting the kibosh on San Fran potentially moving up in the 1st, yeah? Many 'unconventional thinkers' ( ) seem to believe that holding 2 2nd rounders - including KC's early 2nd, and we know those top day two picks can be quite desirable - does provide the necessary ammo to reach up and grab a target who slips. Stretching for 13/14 might be too expensive, but if someone that Baalke & Harbaugh likes falls into that 18-22 range, that might be very doable for what is close to 2 first round picks (maybe a touch of sweetener on top). We don't know.
And a guy who's HOF QB was drafted in the 6th round is now telling us that teams typically only find kickers and punters from the 5th round on (luckily 7/13 picks are in the first 4 rounds, isn't it?)? I know where you're going with that, but... jeez.
in 2010 it cost us a 4th to move from 13 to 11, we spent a fourth and a fifth to move from 45 to 36 for Kaep. Let's just see who's sliding, who's in demand, and how far the 9 want to move up, before putting the kibosh on San Fran potentially moving up in the 1st, yeah? Many 'unconventional thinkers' (
) seem to believe that holding 2 2nd rounders - including KC's early 2nd, and we know those top day two picks can be quite desirable - does provide the necessary ammo to reach up and grab a target who slips. Stretching for 13/14 might be too expensive, but if someone that Baalke & Harbaugh likes falls into that 18-22 range, that might be very doable for what is close to 2 first round picks (maybe a touch of sweetener on top). We don't know.
Did you just explain to Sergio that late picks aren't worth as much as early picks?
And a guy who's HOF QB was drafted in the 6th round is now telling us that teams typically only find kickers and punters from the 5th round on (luckily 7/13 picks are in the first 4 rounds, isn't it?)? I know where you're going with that, but... jeez.
in 2010 it cost us a 4th to move from 13 to 11, we spent a fourth and a fifth to move from 45 to 36 for Kaep. Let's just see who's sliding, who's in demand, and how far the 9 want to move up, before putting the kibosh on San Fran potentially moving up in the 1st, yeah? Many 'unconventional thinkers' ( ) seem to believe that holding 2 2nd rounders - including KC's early 2nd, and we know those top day two picks can be quite desirable - does provide the necessary ammo to reach up and grab a target who slips. Stretching for 13/14 might be too expensive, but if someone that Baalke & Harbaugh likes falls into that 18-22 range, that might be very doable for what is close to 2 first round picks (maybe a touch of sweetener on top). We don't know.
And a guy who's HOF QB was drafted in the 6th round is now telling us that teams typically only find kickers and punters from the 5th round on (luckily 7/13 picks are in the first 4 rounds, isn't it?)? I know where you're going with that, but... jeez.
in 2010 it cost us a 4th to move from 13 to 11, we spent a fourth and a fifth to move from 45 to 36 for Kaep. Let's just see who's sliding, who's in demand, and how far the 9 want to move up, before putting the kibosh on San Fran potentially moving up in the 1st, yeah? Many 'unconventional thinkers' (
) seem to believe that holding 2 2nd rounders - including KC's early 2nd, and we know those top day two picks can be quite desirable - does provide the necessary ammo to reach up and grab a target who slips. Stretching for 13/14 might be too expensive, but if someone that Baalke & Harbaugh likes falls into that 18-22 range, that might be very doable for what is close to 2 first round picks (maybe a touch of sweetener on top). We don't know.
Rollie, heard about this guy who won the lottery some time ago, so congrats for your win this Thursday
- I was talking pure stats and probs, man - Brady getting drafted in the 6th is not the norm but the exception, a crazy one at that. The best RB over the past 2-3 years was an UDFA but you don't see teams looking for their franchise RB after the draft ... all in all, it's not easy at all to find difference makers in those late rounds and vast majority of players drafted in the 5th and later end being back-ups, practice squad filler or not make the roster at all and are out of the league within a couple of years or so.There are many factors that could determine a particular trade but when you move up so many spots in the first, the other team knows you are doing it for a particular player and that gives them leverage over you, especially in a draft that's light at the top and whatever top, unique talent there is out there is unlikely to slip to the 9ers at the end of the first round.
yep, did just that
Rollie, heard about this guy who won the lottery some time ago, so congrats for your win this Thursday - I was talking pure stats and probs, man - Brady getting drafted in the 6th is not the norm but the exception, a crazy one at that. The best RB over the past 2-3 years was an UDFA but you don't see teams looking for their franchise RB after the draft ... all in all, it's not easy at all to find difference makers in those late rounds and vast majority of players drafted in the 5th and later end being back-ups, practice squad filler or not make the roster at all and are out of the league within a couple of years or so.
There are many factors that could determine a particular trade but when you move up so many spots in the first, the other team knows you are doing it for a particular player and that gives them leverage over you, especially in a draft that's light at the top and whatever top, unique talent there is out there is unlikely to slip to the 9ers at the end of the first round.
Rollie, heard about this guy who won the lottery some time ago, so congrats for your win this Thursday
- I was talking pure stats and probs, man - Brady getting drafted in the 6th is not the norm but the exception, a crazy one at that. The best RB over the past 2-3 years was an UDFA but you don't see teams looking for their franchise RB after the draft ... all in all, it's not easy at all to find difference makers in those late rounds and vast majority of players drafted in the 5th and later end being back-ups, practice squad filler or not make the roster at all and are out of the league within a couple of years or so.There are many factors that could determine a particular trade but when you move up so many spots in the first, the other team knows you are doing it for a particular player and that gives them leverage over you, especially in a draft that's light at the top and whatever top, unique talent there is out there is unlikely to slip to the 9ers at the end of the first round.
Statistically speaking, yes, the odds of hitting on lower draft picks are not great. But no team capitulates pre-draft; at the very least, healthy bodies are important to a football team. Mid and late round quality is all over the place, and if you have good talent evaluators scouting and drafting players, your chances of hitting on picks obviously increases. I think we have good evaluators, and I'm looking forward to seeing what happens.
Alfred Morris is another 6th rounder who seemed to pan out last year. They exist! We picked Ricky Jean Francois in the 7th round, and 22M later he's living the dream in Indy
I understand leverage, bud. I also understand that there may be a team drafting in that range who doesn't really see a guaranteed fit for them at that spot, doesn't have that pressing need, and thinks that by moving back 10-12 picks they may be able to still get a couple of the players they're interested in. They gain an additional high pick, another potentially good young player in the process (maybe a mid round pick as well), and in a draft that isn't supposed to be that top heavy, volume picks in the first few rounds might be enticing to some teams out there.
Time to put the Ouija board away for the night. I can't possibly see the 9ers making 13 picks; I do expect to see a deal or three to move up/for future picks.
Yes, I am aware of this. I am also aware of the value charts that are given to draft picks, and I know full well that the chances of the niners moving up by adding ONLY later round picks is impossible. Which was why I had stated a couple of days ago that I do not want them to do this for someone like a Tavon Austin. Dee Millner? Absolutely. Not a Tavon Austin. They need a replacement for Justin Smith, Dashon Goldson, and another Cornerback and TE. A WR that is small and fast can be had in the third round or later
