swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
84,749
Dude... I did not. On the morning of NYE, I was staying over at a friend's in San Carlos and went to visit a mentor for breakfast in Palo Alto. El Camino Real was a lake... with cars in the Redwood Shores Trader Joe's parking lot flooded in water up to their headlights. Driving through Redwood Shores on the ECR looked like we were passing through Ft. Meyers, FL after Hurricane Ian.

Then coming back up to Napa after crossing the Dunbarton bridge late yesterday morning, I-880 was a freaking water show. Cars crashed everywhere. One in a single-car accident wiped out in a ravine off the side of the interstate. All I needed was traffic to stop for a duck crossing.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
115,912
Dude... I did not. On the morning of NYE, I was staying over at a friend's in San Carlos and went to visit a mentor for breakfast in Palo Alto. El Camino Real was a lake... with cars in the Redwood Shores Trader Joe's parking lot flooded in water up to their headlights. Driving through Redwood Shores on the ECR looked like we were passing through Ft. Meyers, FL after Hurricane Ian.

Then coming back up to Napa after crossing the Dunbarton bridge late yesterday morning, I-880 was a freaking water show. Cars crashed everywhere. One in a single-car accident wiped out in a ravine off the side of the interstate. All I needed was traffic to stop for a duck crossing.
For whatever reason your post reminded me of this.

 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
84,749
For whatever reason your post reminded me of this.

I get the reference

Even if the satire is 100% SoCal and 0% NorCal.

Sure, there’s the blonde-dyed surfer dude complex. But the language is the giveaway.

For example, in NorCal people say “101” for US Highway 101 or “I-405” for Interstate 405. In SoCal, everyone uses the definite article: “THE 101”, “the 405”, etc. Its a strange major split in road dialect.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
115,912
Yeah, earthquakes are among the most difficult natural disasters to predict.
No doubt, I’m not sure what their modeling is based on, if anything at all. But I’d imagine you could have a model based on clusters of smaller quakes and probabilities, looking back on past data. Still wouldn’t seem valid to have 98% chances all the time.

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Lol never seen an SNL skits where they breaking character this much by holding in laughter mid lines.
It’s one of my fave skits. SNL sucks these days but that was a gem.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
84,749
@swag

How reliable are these models?


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Nevermind, these guys predict this shit all the time. :lol:
Just not enough data points to be reliable yet. To tell false positives from true ones, you need a lot more true positives.

That said, figures I'd be here for that. :D

And it fits the old wive's tale about lots of rain "lubricating" the plates to slip... associating heavy rains with earthquake activity.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
115,912
Just not enough data points to be reliable yet. To tell false positives from true ones, you need a lot more true positives.

That said, figures I'd be here for that. :D

And it fits the old wive's tale about lots of rain "lubricating" the plates to slip... associating heavy rains with earthquake activity.
Atmospheric rivers dumping some well needed rain. Heading out to CA again in March, can’t wait.
 

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