Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,132
There's supposed to be a state of emergency in MD but on the news they're saying it's going to stay east of us but it's still going to get windy around here? Is that right?
The local mets are blowing this thing off, but not for good reason. They are model-hugging far too much. All the major models have all trended more and more West over time, and if we don't get a more NNE hook soon, then Earl may hit Hatteras and hug the coastline, creating a path of destruction from the Outer Banks all the way up to Long Island. If this thing goes annular (perfect circular formation and strengthens to a Cat 5), it could jet off anywhere, including into the Chesapeake Bay area.

These local meteorologists are playing with fire here and not taking this situation seriously enough. But many of them did the same thing during the Winter storms. Guess they haven't learned.

If you're on the Eastern shore, I'd take precautions and have a plan in place.
 

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X Æ A-12

Senior Member
Contributor
Sep 4, 2006
87,955
The local mets are blowing this thing off, but not for good reason. They are model-hugging far too much. All the major models have all trended more and more West over time, and if we don't get a more NNE hook soon, then Earl may hit Hatteras and hug the coastline, creating a path of destruction from the Outer Banks all the way up to Long Island. If this thing goes annular (perfect circular formation and strengthens to a Cat 5), it could jet off anywhere, including into the Chesapeake Bay area.

These local meteorologists are playing with fire here and not taking this situation seriously enough. But many of them did the same thing during the Winter storms. Guess they haven't learned.

If you're on the Eastern shore, I'd take precautions and have a plan in place.
How far inland is in danger of being hit?
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,132
Na, I'm in Frederick. I'm just a sucker for natural phenomena. I know it causes destruction and death but the force of nature is exciting to me :snoop:
I hope this thing goes ashore and comes our way. :D

How far inland is in danger of being hit?
Worst case scenario is that it comes into Cape Hatteras and rides the coastline North. That will send hurricane force winds 50 to 100 miles inland and tropical storm force winds 150 miles inland. Of course, the system will weaken over time over land, but it still should keep hurricane strength as it works its way up towards Massachusetts. This is assuming Earl makes landfall as a strong Cat 4 hurricane.
 

Enron

Tickle Me
Moderator
Oct 11, 2005
75,664
lol people actually do that?
Yep. People go to the hurricanes and party. Surfers will flock to Ocean City this weekend to get a taste of some mondo waves. Everyone else will be there just boozing. Doesn't help that the local Mets are giving clear forecasts for Sat-Mon, so folks are traveling up tomorrow and staying through the storm.
 

X Æ A-12

Senior Member
Contributor
Sep 4, 2006
87,955
Yep. People go to the hurricanes and party. Surfers will flock to Ocean City this weekend to get a taste of some mondo waves. Everyone else will be there just boozing. Doesn't help that the local Mets are giving clear forecasts for Sat-Mon, so folks are traveling up tomorrow and staying through the storm.
That sounds like it would be sick if it wasn't so stupid.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,132
The problem with this is because of the counter-clockwise flow pattern of a tropical cyclone, Earl is going to send in massive storm surge into the Chesapeake. Depending on the track, if it hugs the coast, this could turn out to be worse than Isabel.
 

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