Nah, stop bringing so many "if"s into the rule. If the player thinks it's going to hit the post, he must not handle the ball.
Like the goaltending violation: In basketball, goaltending is the violation of interfering with the ball when it is on its way to the basket and it is (a) in its downward flight, (b) entirely above the rim and has the possibility of entering the basket, and (c) not touching the rim. If goaltending is called for interference with a field goal, the shooting team is awarded the points for the field goal as if it had been made. When a player blocks the ball on its way to the basket, they call for goal even though it's not 100% certain whether the ball is going to enter the basket or hit the rim.
All in all, this would be making much more sense compared to denying a GOAL and changing it with only a goal opportunity.