++ [ originally posted by BigIzz ] ++
Italy currently have 2 points, behind Sweden and Denmark with 4 points. Bulgaria is eliminated with 0 points. If Italy lose or draw, they will have 2 or 3 points compared to Sweden and Denmark who will have at least 4 points and Italy cannot advance.
Now if Italy win, they will have 5 points. Sweden and Denmark are playing each other so if either of those teams win, the winner will have 7 points, Italy will have 5 and the loser will have 4 so Italy will advance.
That was all quite simple.
Now if Italy wins and Sweden and Denmark were to draw, all three sides would be level with 5 points. To break a three way tie, FIFA creates a "mini-league" discounting all of the matches inolving Bulgaria. So create a table based on Ita-Swe, Ita-Den, Den-Swe. Italys result in the "minileague" is already decided. They scored zero against Denmark and 1 against Sweden. Denmark has not scored yet in the "mini league" and Sweden has scored once. Goal diference for all of the teams will be even in the "minileague" (remember the Denmark Sweden game must end in a tie in order for this tiebreaker to be enacted so all 3 squads will undoubtably be even in goal difference. If they aren't, then either Sweden or Denmark won and Italy would advance) and Italy cannot improve this regardless of their preformance against Bulgaria. So if the mini league is enacted, we know that:
- Italy, Sweden and Denmark will all have to have 2 points in the minileague
- Since all of the matches considered will have been draws, the goal difference will be even for all 3 teams.
So the next tie breaker is goals for. Italy have 1 goal for in the mini and cannot improve this. If Denmark and Sweden are each able to have better then one goal for ( a 2-2 draw, 5-5 draw, 100-100 draw it dosen't matter, then Italy will have 1 goal for, and both Sweden and Denmark will have 2 or more goals for and they will win the tiebreaker and adavance.