Stock Market (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter AFL_ITALIA
- Start date
I’ve been trying to swingtrade a bit in the past weeks. Out of the 10 stocks I bought, 7 we’re profitable, made a loss on two due to dumb mistakes and one I’m still holding.
Does someone else tries this here? I’m not looking to much into charts, tried to avoid candles and rather try to see the bigger picture. More interested in believing if a stock will grow within a day or at max a few weeks. Most came down to good timing or being patient although some positions I closed within a day.
The profits I made are marginal though, I saw it as experimenting and with the broker costs I learned that I have to take bigger positions in order to make a profit. Didn’t knew before that I pay way less to trade on the American market instead of the EU market.
Still can’t find anything on YT that’s closely related to what I’m doing, most of those videos immodestly dive into charts and candles, while I just made a list of profitable companies, followed their stock prices and dived in whenever there’s a nice dip.
Does someone else tries this here? I’m not looking to much into charts, tried to avoid candles and rather try to see the bigger picture. More interested in believing if a stock will grow within a day or at max a few weeks. Most came down to good timing or being patient although some positions I closed within a day.
The profits I made are marginal though, I saw it as experimenting and with the broker costs I learned that I have to take bigger positions in order to make a profit. Didn’t knew before that I pay way less to trade on the American market instead of the EU market.
Still can’t find anything on YT that’s closely related to what I’m doing, most of those videos immodestly dive into charts and candles, while I just made a list of profitable companies, followed their stock prices and dived in whenever there’s a nice dip.
I'm doing what you're doing but on a multi month to multi year timeframe rather than weeks
Market sentiment analysis works better
Just find a woman or basketball gentleman on twatter that buys them stawks
When woman is cocky about them stawwks going up and says something like momma needs a new gucci bag -> SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When woman doesn't toast for a few days (pretends to be busy but you can feel the seethe through the screen) and then comes back doomtoasting zerohedge and Michael Burry --> BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Market sentiment analysis works better
Just find a woman or basketball gentleman on twatter that buys them stawks
When woman is cocky about them stawwks going up and says something like momma needs a new gucci bag -> SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When woman doesn't toast for a few days (pretends to be busy but you can feel the seethe through the screen) and then comes back doomtoasting zerohedge and Michael Burry --> BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also I use tuz despair for my buys like this
https://www.juventuz.com/threads/stock-market.44389/page-73#post-6590054
For a few months ---> good enough
https://www.juventuz.com/threads/stock-market.44389/page-73#post-6590054
For a few months ---> good enough
Last edited:
Earnings, cash flow, P/E ratio, revenue and earnings growth, debt and assets etc.
Using a discounted cash flow model can give a good ballpark estimate as to the stock’s valuation as long as you make reasonable assumptions.
More qualitatively, I treat stocks as businesses, so I ask myself the question, do I want to own a piece of this business?
At the end of the day, it’s a lot easier to just dump most of your money into VOO or VTI. Most individual stock pickers and even hedge funds do not beat the S&P500.
Using a discounted cash flow model can give a good ballpark estimate as to the stock’s valuation as long as you make reasonable assumptions.
More qualitatively, I treat stocks as businesses, so I ask myself the question, do I want to own a piece of this business?
At the end of the day, it’s a lot easier to just dump most of your money into VOO or VTI. Most individual stock pickers and even hedge funds do not beat the S&P500.
Last edited:
I mean, not in all cases. Much of it is based on statistics and math.
A stock can have amazing fundamentals but still get trashed because of overall market sentiment, or terrible fundamentals and go to 300 per share like GME.
I don't know how anybody can swing trade over the course of a few days or a couple weeks based on fundamentals. That logic seems flawed to me, IMO.
The best indicator for trading is really orderflow.
A stock can have amazing fundamentals but still get trashed because of overall market sentiment, or terrible fundamentals and go to 300 per share like GME.
I don't know how anybody can swing trade over the course of a few days or a couple weeks based on fundamentals. That logic seems flawed to me, IMO.
The best indicator for trading is really orderflow.
OP
I'm doing what you're doing but on a multi month to multi year timeframe rather than weeks
Market sentiment analysis works better
Just find a woman or basketball gentleman on twatter that buys them stawks
When woman is cocky about them stawwks going up and says something like momma needs a new gucci bag -> SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When woman doesn't toast for a few days (pretends to be busy but you can feel the seethe through the screen) and then comes back doomtoasting zerohedge and Michael Burry --> BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Market sentiment analysis works better
Just find a woman or basketball gentleman on twatter that buys them stawks
When woman is cocky about them stawwks going up and says something like momma needs a new gucci bag -> SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When woman doesn't toast for a few days (pretends to be busy but you can feel the seethe through the screen) and then comes back doomtoasting zerohedge and Michael Burry --> BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also I use tuz despair for my buys like this
https://www.juventuz.com/threads/stock-market.44389/page-73#post-6590054
For a few months ---> good enough
https://www.juventuz.com/threads/stock-market.44389/page-73#post-6590054
For a few months ---> good enough
Thanks mate. Honestly I should look more into those things, I’m still a rookie. What I’ve been doing is probably closer to gambling and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone would tell me that id lose money in the long term.
But what is your strategy regarding the stocks that you’ve bought? Hold for a certain amount of time? Or what would trigger you to sell? I got into the game lets say a year ago, bought for the ‘long term’, but this doesn’t work for me personally. Im just to inpatient and I need to be more involved in order to not lose my interest.
- - - Updated - - -
Where do you read the orderflow?
But what is your strategy regarding the stocks that you’ve bought? Hold for a certain amount of time? Or what would trigger you to sell? I got into the game lets say a year ago, bought for the ‘long term’, but this doesn’t work for me personally. Im just to inpatient and I need to be more involved in order to not lose my interest.
- - - Updated - - -
Where do you read the orderflow?
I pretty much never sell my positions unless I need the cash or something about the company changes to a point where I no longer believe in their future.
Day trading is really inefficient because
1) The market is a negative sum game in the short term. The bid-ask spread means you will be losing money by constantly buying and selling and brokerages always make money no matter what.
2) You are competing with hedge funds who employs thousands of quants and algorithmic trading models. You will never beat these guys on speed
3) Even if you make a profit, your tax liability is significantly higher because of short term capital gains
4) Investing is an emotional process. Day trading can really take a toll on your mental health. Not to mention, the time it takes to constantly view positions and trade them.
Multiple studies have shown that most day traders don’t even make minimum wage.
Instead, if you just worked a regular job and invested in the S&P500, you would likely get 7-10% annual returns- which is really powerful in the long term due to compounding.
Swing trading might be a happy medium where you buy and sell over multiples months to a few years, but be aware that no one can accurately and consistently predict market performance in the short term (short term here being less than 3-5 years).
Just my two cents. Of course people can invest their time and money in whichever manner they please.
Edit: contrarian investing can be pretty useful (buying when market sentiment is bad and selling when it’s way too high) for reliable stocks. It looks like you’re already doing that somewhat. I highly recommend Peter Lynch’s book ‘One up on Wall Street’. It won’t tell you which stocks to buy and sell, but it will definitely reach some important investing principles.
Day trading is really inefficient because
1) The market is a negative sum game in the short term. The bid-ask spread means you will be losing money by constantly buying and selling and brokerages always make money no matter what.
2) You are competing with hedge funds who employs thousands of quants and algorithmic trading models. You will never beat these guys on speed
3) Even if you make a profit, your tax liability is significantly higher because of short term capital gains
4) Investing is an emotional process. Day trading can really take a toll on your mental health. Not to mention, the time it takes to constantly view positions and trade them.
Multiple studies have shown that most day traders don’t even make minimum wage.
Instead, if you just worked a regular job and invested in the S&P500, you would likely get 7-10% annual returns- which is really powerful in the long term due to compounding.
Swing trading might be a happy medium where you buy and sell over multiples months to a few years, but be aware that no one can accurately and consistently predict market performance in the short term (short term here being less than 3-5 years).
Just my two cents. Of course people can invest their time and money in whichever manner they please.
Edit: contrarian investing can be pretty useful (buying when market sentiment is bad and selling when it’s way too high) for reliable stocks. It looks like you’re already doing that somewhat. I highly recommend Peter Lynch’s book ‘One up on Wall Street’. It won’t tell you which stocks to buy and sell, but it will definitely reach some important investing principles.
Last edited:
