Stock Market (14 Viewers)

[Bjerknes]

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[lgorTudor]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/debt-mortgage-feature-1.6162668

It's almost always the case here that a certain period of time, say 10 years of your mortgage is happening at a contractually specified fixed rate, say 2%, before the bank is allowed to renegotiate.

This is not the case in Canada&USA? They can just hit you with a hike?

sheeeeiiiit, then the situation is much worse than I anticipated

 

[Cerval]

It's almost always the case here that a certain period of time, say 10 years of your mortgage is happening at a contractually specified fixed rate, say 2%, before the bank is allowed to renegotiate.

This is not the case in Canada&USA? They can just hit you with a hike?

sheeeeiiiit, then the situation is much worse than I anticipated

No you can either have it variable rate or fixed, you have the choice. Fixed would be for 5 to 10 years

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

It's almost always the case here that a certain period of time, say 10 years of your mortgage is happening at a contractually specified fixed rate, say 2%, before the bank is allowed to renegotiate.

This is not the case in Canada&USA? They can just hit you with a hike?

sheeeeiiiit, then the situation is much worse than I anticipated

Maybe I'm wrong but that sounds like an adjustable rate mortgage, which are far less popular than fixed rate. This is from 2016 but still.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume...nts-before-and-after-the-housing-collapse.htm

 

[Cerval]

Stock markets experts, is the big boom soon ? What does the charts say?

EDIT boom as in crash

 

[lgorTudor]

Maybe I'm wrong but that sounds like an adjustable rate mortgage, which are far less popular than fixed rate. This is from 2016 but still.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume...nts-before-and-after-the-housing-collapse.htm

Okay makes sense but then it beats me what the Canadian woman from the article is saying

"A small movement in interest rates can actually do quite a large increase in what a consumer needs to [come up with] in terms of those payments," she said. "That's kind of why we're a little bit concerned."

How would the home buyers with an FRM be affected from rising mortgage rates after already having a legally binding FRM? Nothing changes for them and if the next guy gets a FRM with unfavorable rates then all cards were on the table and the hike didn't screw him, can't screw him mid-mortgage.

For that second dude, if rate hikes really happen, the overall package will end up straight up cheaper because housing would dump

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In 5 years or so, when the time comes to renegotiate the hike would hit them

I see, that's just something that can become a (nationwide --> global) problem depending on what mortgage is the predominant type and to what extent

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Okay makes sense but then it beats me what the Canadian woman from the article is saying



How would the home buyers with an FRM be affected from rising mortgage rates after already having a legally binding FRM? Nothing changes for them and if the next guy gets a FRM with unfavorable rates then all cards were on the table and the hike didn't screw him, can't screw him mid-mortgage.

For that second dude, if rate hikes really happen, the overall package will end up straight up cheaper because housing would dump

- - - Updated - - -


I see, that's just something that can become a (nationwide --> global) problem depending on what mortgage is the predominant type and to what extent

I think it's in reference to taking out new mortgages since that's what the article mostly seems framed around, as in higher rates = higher interest payments so a larger down payment needed. Other than that, I have no idea.

You know, I keep hearing that rising rates will crash the housing market, but I'm skeptical of this. At the end of the day you still need a place to live no matter what. Sure maybe higher rates would make it harder for people like us to buy something due to the larger interest generated, but as for those that already have the money on hand, such as our good friend in the article Adam "I own a number of homes in London, Ont." Eljerbi, he'll still have plenty of money to buy the remaining stock regardless of rates, and continue to rent them out to people otherwise prices out. Even during the 2007/8 crash, the average sale price of a home dropped only about 20% at most.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

 

[DutchJuventino]

Seemed like a good pick, I went in on Blackstone. Hopefully it rises in a few months

Sent from my Samsung via Tapatalk

Lol, first bad day for us. Gonna add at 115, 110 and 105 if possible. It's the type of stock that people switch to if other stocks are dropping, like banks etc. So I am not worried.

 

[lgorTudor]

I think it's in reference to taking out new mortgages since that's what the article mostly seems framed around, as in higher rates = higher interest payments so a larger down payment needed. Other than that, I have no idea.

You know, I keep hearing that rising rates will crash the housing market, but I'm skeptical of this. At the end of the day you still need a place to live no matter what. Sure maybe higher rates would make it harder for people like us to buy something due to the larger interest generated, but as for those that already have the money on hand, such as our good friend in the article Adam "I own a number of homes in London, Ont." Eljerbi, he'll still have plenty of money to buy the remaining stock regardless of rates, and continue to rent them out to people otherwise prices out. Even during the 2007/8 crash, the average sale price of a home dropped only about 20% at most.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

I'll buy the post AFL entry dip

 

[IliveForJuve]

Charlie Munger tripled down on BABA.

 

[lgorTudor]

Charlie Munger tripled down on BABA.

Vile old fart will take these bags into the grave.
Fundamentals = NEVER trust the bugmen
Sentiment = NEVER trust the bugmen
TA = price is a decent fire sale but downtrend isn't broken yet so it's basically a gamble unless you have all the time in the world

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

I'll buy the post AFL entry dip

I'm trying to figure out a way to fake them out. Like maybe if I air sign the paperwork first and then hold it for a day, then markets will crash within the hour.

 

[lgorTudor]

I'm trying to figure out a way to fake them out. Like maybe if I air sign the paperwork first and then hold it for a day, then markets will crash within the hour.

The day before buying a house you buy REIT-ETFs
Or the day after buying a house you get REIT puts. This way you make sure house line go up

 

[Cerval]

US bond rates hit an ATH in 1981 around 15%. Unsurprisingly, the stock market hit a low at the same time (you should expect an inverse relationship between bond rates and most securities markets). Think about how ridiculous 15% bond rates are. That would mean you could buy what is definitionally the safest investment available and get 15% returns each year. By contrast, the safest stock ETFs (still way riskier than US bonds) average like 7% a year.

So, in the 80s, you could double your money every 5 years while accepting what is usually considered 0 risk. Ever wonder why boomers seemed to get wealthy so easily? This is one of the reasons.

Since the ATH in 1981, the treasury note rate has fallen continuously until Covid hit, at which point it pivoted at a low of about 0.5%. Since then, it has been going back up, but is still extremely low, at around 1.5%.

Since bond rates going down means stocks go up, the stock market has been in a tremendous and arguably unnatural bull run for about 40 years, only pausing twice very briefly for "corrections" circa 1999 and 2008.

Since US bond rates have gotten so close to 0%, they can't really lower them any further without going negative (which is actually a thing, and some countries are trying negative interest now. This is related to Modern Monetary Theory, and is an extremely weird rabbit hole that nobody really knows the true consequences of yet. Imagine getting paid to borrow money. Some countries have been experimenting with this over the last 7 years). The chair of the FED (Jerome Powell) said a few months back that they have no intention of going to negative interest rates, so that means these past 40 years of propping up markets by reducing bond rates has probably come to an end.

You could think of the continuous lowering of rates for the last 40 years as the FED spending its ammunition to prop up markets and propel economic growth, but now that rates are barely above 0% and the FED isn't willing to go negative, they are out of ammo. Not only are they out of ammo when it comes to lowering the rates, but they are also currently incentivized to increase rates to combat rising inflation.

This is why there is fear. The FED has been sticking its hands in for 40 years to prop up markets, and now it seems they are going to stop, at least for now.

 

[lgorTudor]

Rates can be at 1.5% for another 40 years or they can abuse the COVID crisis as pretend reason to rugpull the entire market, tanking the worldwide economy for real, jobs etc, not only robinhood fag zoomers losing stonk money. Everybody claiming they know what's gonna happen is a lying snake oil salesman (in 21th century terms where attention and clicks are a currency I'm looking at twatter 'economists') There's no space for guessing so everybody should maneuver themselves in a position where they're comfortable with either scenario and not let greed control their actions.

Truth is, crash prophets have missed out on the entire run-up. You can't take advice on how to navigate the markets from people who evidently don't know how to navigate the markets. Permabulls as well, the are greedy and could be left with nothing if the music stops.

 

[Cerval]

Rates can be at 1.5% for another 40 years or they can abuse the COVID crisis as pretend reason to rugpull the entire market, tanking the worldwide economy for real, jobs etc, not only robinhood fag zoomers losing stonk money. Everybody claiming they know what's gonna happen is a lying snake oil salesman (in 21th century terms where attention and clicks are a currency I'm looking at twatter 'economists') There's no space for guessing so everybody should maneuver themselves in a position where they're comfortable with either scenario and not let greed control their actions.

The thing I'm wondering is even if they don’t increase bond interest rates, does this mean there won't be a bull run like we've seen in the foreseeable future? Arguably it was not natural, but still.

 

[campionesidd]

@DutchJuventino
DISCK to the moon
Still hoping to buy in every month till the merger goes through (unless it reaches ridiculously high prices before that).

 

[DutchJuventino]

@DutchJuventino
DISCK to the moon
Still hoping to buy in every month till the merger goes through (unless it reaches ridiculously high prices before that).

 

[Cerval]

Goldman Sachs predicts the Feds will raise interest rate 4 times this year

 

[campionesidd]

You guys bleeding?