Well, if we were talking about Madrid being 10-12 points behind, then I'd agree with you. However, as things stand, and with the inconsistency Barca have been exhibiting this season, it wouldn't be a surprise if they end up 3rd behind both the Madrid clubs.
Atletico are currently leading by 3 points from both Barca and Real. Do you honestly believe it's unlikely that Real (who have arguably the better team, and undoubtedly better coach) can make up such a minuscule difference, especially when you consider they haven't conceded a single league goal in January?!