Assuming Italians do badly. I guess Juve and Milan teams in Europa Leauge will keep coeficient high.
An average of 15 pts per year is enough for Italy to stay in top 4. This season Italy got only 12.6, and if they keep doing like this, then the Italians could face problems in 4 or 5 years.
The problem is that only Juventus are doing well enough. Roma and Napoli are just above the required average, but all the others are doing worse than they should. It's actually the Milan teams that should be doing much better.
This is the average pts Italian teams got in the last 5 years (for the coefficient the last 5 years are counted). With 15 pts per season being the needed number for top 4, you can see that most of the Italians can't reach that.
Juventus 124 pts/5 seasons (average
24.8 pts)
Roma 81 pts/5 seasons (average
16.2 pts)
Napoli 80 pts/ 5 seasons (
16.0 pts)
------------
Fiorentina 39 pts/3 seasons (
13.0 pts)
Torino 13 pts/1 season (
13.0 pts)
Lazio 37 pts/3 seasons (
12.3 pts)
Inter 31 pts/3 seasons (
10.3 pts)
Milan 19 pts/ 2 seasons (
9.5 pts)
Atalanta 13.5 pts/2 seasons (
6.75 pts)
Sassuolo 4 pts/1 season (
4.0 pts)
Sampdoria 1 pt/1 season (
1.0 pts)
Basically,
Juventus are the only ones keeping Italy in top 4. We are actually doing all these teams a favor to play CL by coming 4th, or even those coming 3rd. Without us, Italy would have been the same as Russia and Portugal, fighting to have 3 teams in CL instead of 2.
To be fair, the same could be said for France, where PSG are keeping them in top 5.