Second Nor'Easter Will Paralyze East Coast (17 Viewers)

[Bjerknes]

Finally plows came by, 24 hours after the storm ended. Major roads still shut down.

Amazing.

The highest storm total from this storm across the entire country, 27.9 inches, occurred fives miles to my North in Orrtana, PA. That's pretty nuts considering we got about six inches less here. Just goes to show how the banding of the precip shield can vary with such a sharp gradient.

 

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[Bjerknes]

Here we go again. A possible 4th blizzard of the season coming up for the Mid-Atlantic.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
821 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST REACHING THE NEW YORK
CITY AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND COULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS STORM TRACK WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOMERSET COUNTY
IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-241600-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.100225T0600Z-100226T1200Z/
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-YORK-
LANCASTER-
821 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND AREAS TO THE EAST...AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES OR MORE...ALONG WITH SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND
AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

This low pressure system is going to get so tightly wound up that it's going to send 40 to 50 mph winds in behind it... along with heavy snow? God help us.

Looks like the track continues to move west and south. Before the low seemed to track too far off the coast and too far North to affect us, but the recent model runs keep pushing it closer to Maryland.

I don't know. Really freaking weird track this thing takes. And it basically turns into another cat 2 hurricane over the Northeast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Time draws nearer.

 

[Bjerknes]

To 2012? Might be a bit late, really.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Shit, yeah. But it makes you wonder a little.

 

[ßöмßäяðîëя]

How much could we see around here?

 

[Bjerknes]

Depends. If we get a track closer to the coast and quicker intensification you could get over six inches again. Really hard to tell at this point. There's going to be a crazy sharp cutoff towards the south end of the precip shield, so even 20 miles could mean the difference between a foot and nothing.

 

[ßöмßäяðîëя]

WELL FUCK OFF!

 

[Bjerknes]

BLOW IT OUT UR ASS!

 

[GordoDeCentral]

after some mexican food?

 

[Zé Tahir]

Oh snap. Will we know by tomorrow whether we're getting hit or not?

 

[ßöмßäяðîëя]

Yo, Andy, an Illuminist Brotheroid just tried to break in and I took him out, the Illuminaughty got the body before I could call the scientists...

 

[Bjerknes]

Oh snap. Will we know by tomorrow whether we're getting hit or not?

Yeah, it's going to be one of those last minute forecast calls.

Yo, Andy, an Illuminist Brotheroid just tried to break in and I took him out, the Illuminaughty got the body before I could call the scientists...

DAMNIT! Gotta do better next time.

Those Illuminaughty make good sandwiches.

 

[Bjerknes]

This Nor'Easter, unfortunately, will be more of a New England event. Track is too far East and North at first for the Mid-Atlantic to be the jackpot zone.

But this is just one weird and monstrous storm. Once the central low heads North into New England it will actually retrograde in a South-West fashion. Depending on how long the motion takes and how far South it can swing, we might see some snow on Friday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

Seeing how the low tracks inward for a day, I think some spots in New York and Jersey could see 30+ inches of snow from this monster. The low bombs out to a central pressure of 980 or 975, which is like that of a hurricane.

Isobars will be very tightly packed, meaning the pressure gradient will be HUGE, meaning that winds in the mid-Atlantic will be FIERCE, 30 to 45 mph, and it will create copious amounts of upsloping snow in the mountains of WV and PA.

But for us, we miss the good stuff. Although we can't really complain down here, having three 20+ snowfalls.

 

[Bjerknes]

One more good shot at another significant snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic. March 2nd through 4th we have another coastal storm coming our way. Right now this looks like a better shot than the last.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html

The Conspiracy Theory "Farmer's Almanac" also calls for a storm during the 3rd, so it might be right for once.

 

[Zé Tahir]

What's the latest Van der Beck?

 

[Bjerknes]

Doesn't look as promising as it did just 24 hours ago. The forecast model ensembles show the low pressure system moving a bit further off the coast, only spreading light precipitation over the mid-Atlantic. The problem seems to be another low pressure system in the Northwest Atlantic stalling out and basically blocking this system from moving up the coast. The height field isn't oriented in such a way to steer the coastal low close to the coast, but hey, we're still over 100 hours out from forecast verification time.

If that low pressure system up there moves towards the NE quicker than expected and GTFO, things could materialize. I'd say the chances for that are 50/50 at this point. Keep the fingers crossed.

 

[JCK]

What causes this fat winter weather, Andy. In Sweden we broke records in snow accumulation this season. And it's still going now even if a bit got melt.

 

[JBF]

2012

 

[Zé Tahir]

Doesn't look as promising as it did just 24 hours ago. The forecast model ensembles show the low pressure system moving a bit further off the coast, only spreading light precipitation over the mid-Atlantic. The problem seems to be another low pressure system in the Northwest Atlantic stalling out and basically blocking this system from moving up the coast. The height field isn't oriented in such a way to steer the coastal low close to the coast, but hey, we're still over 100 hours out from forecast verification time.

If that low pressure system up there moves towards the NE quicker than expected and GTFO, things could materialize. I'd say the chances for that are 50/50 at this point. Keep the fingers crossed.

If all goes in favour of snowfall here, how much we looking at? :xfinger: