Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (59 Viewers)

[Post Ironic]

The US imports only a fraction of oil from Russia, it's like <10%, yet prices skyrocketed to 130 dollars. It's a domino effect. Don't know about that fraction but ever since this happened and wheat export stopped, our country received a request of 200.000 tonnes of wheat which was rejected since it's abnormal request (for us). I think there's a huge demand right now and countries will mostly keep their reserves.

Of course prices will go up with shortages and countries that rely on Ukrainian and Russia wheat looking at other options, but the western world is not part of those wheat shortages. We’ll see high prices but we won’t see food security issues and the same with oil and gas. High prices but not actual shortages. And that’s a very important distinction.

 

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[Cerval]

Russia and China do a lot of business together, obviously. But US demand for their shit is much higher. I can't imagine this is good news for China either.

China is the winner and is probably quite happy. Russia is being forced to remove its dependency on the West, they are already replacing their credit system with China's UnionPay and Xi Jinpin is actively looking for new partnerships in different sectors. This also gives them more and more the upper hand in their relationship with Russia. China is probably enjoying being neutral and not having the spotlight on them. and lets be honest NATO being more united has no impact on them. People don't realize at what extent the world's economics is coupled with China.

 

[Post Ironic]

150 billion out of 15 trillion is 1%. Peanuts for a country the size of China. For Russia it is 10%, so that is huge.

Some people are so weirdly defensive about Russia.

 

[Tomice]

The process to join EU is a long one and normally a country needs to pass shitloads of economic and democratic indicators. Ukraine was democratic after 2004, than Yanukovych got to power around 2010 I think and just when Ukraine and EU was about to start the process of joining Yanukovych abruptly decided to quit it which in turn provoked the 2013 Euromaidan protests and the whole shit in which Ukraine is right now. In other words, the EU was there the whole time but you need 2 to tango and Yanukovych made sure there was no dancing.

And I'm pretty sure they would be welcomed in NATO easily if not for the nuclear bear.

Didn't mean to imply it was solely the EU fault. or their responsibility or obligation to admit Ukraine. But as you are saying it was never an open invitation or a expeditated process. and let's be honest here, Ukraine was never some enlightened, corruption free democracy, this process could have taken over a decade.

 

[Kopanja]

Not overtly, it was the implication. toying with the idea publicly in itself threaten Russia security perception. justifiably or not

Aha, so it was not a threat, but only an implication of a threat that might've existed only in one's perception. Honestly, don't you think that sounds retarded? Should we blame "the West" every time another retarded perception of security is distributed by implications?

 

[Post Ironic]

China is the winner and is probably quite happy. Russia is being forced to remove its dependency on the West, they are already replacing their credit system with China's UnionPay and Xi Jinpin is actively looking for new partnerships in different sectors. This also gives them more and more the upper hand in their relationship with Russia. China is probably enjoying being neutral and not having the spotlight on them. and lets be honest NATO being more united has no impact on them. People don't realize at what extent the world's economics is coupled with China.

The exact opposite really. Everyone understands this, which is why there is so much handwringing about it constantly.

Conversely, EU + US and their allies are still far and away the economic superpower bloc of this world.

 

[Tomice]

Aha, so it was not threat, but only an implication of a threat that might've existed only in ones perception. Honestly, don't you think that sounds retarded? Should we blame "the West" everytime another retarded perception of security is distribed by implications?

I don't see how what I said has anything to do with blaming the west

 

[Kopanja]

I don't see how what I said has anything to do with blaming the west

"it was just a stick the west used to threaten russia", are you talking about different "the west" here?

 

[radekas]

Didn't mean to imply it was solely the EU fault. or their responsibility or obligation to admit Ukraine. But as you are saying it was never an open invitation or a expeditated process. and let's be honest here, Ukraine was never some enlightened, corruption free democracy, this process could have taken over a decade.

The invitation was indeed an open one, but Ukraine never got the chance to go for it because of the russian puppet aka Viktor Yanukovych,

And of course Ukraine was and is corrupted like most post-soviet countries, but they were in the process of dealing with it. The thing is they would probably be in the EU already or near to it if not for Yanukovych.

Ukraine is basically 15-20 years behind countries like Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Baltic states etc. If not for putin's meddling they would be slowly but surely joining civilised Europe.

Unfortunetly it wasn't to be .

 

[Tomice]

"it was just a stick the west used to threaten russia", are you talking about different "the west" here?

I don't fault the west at all for threatening Russia, maybe if they have done it sooner and more severely your country wouldn't be in this mess

 

[campionesidd]

Some people are so weirdly defensive about Russia.

Copium is a helluva drug.

 

[Kopanja]

I don't fault the west at all for threatening Russia, maybe if they have done it sooner and more severely your country wouldn't be in this mess

So we are back to the square one. When did this happen?

 

[Tomice]

So we are back to the square one. When did this happen?

Never did.

I'm just saying I don't think it was ever a realistic option (joining NATO) since the west didn't really want to tangle with Russia as Ukraine was red line for them (but not for the west imo)

 

[Kopanja]

The invitation was indeed an open one, but Ukraine never got the chance to go for it because of the russian puppet aka Viktor Yanukovych,

And of course Ukraine was and is corrupted like most post-soviet countries, but they were in the process of dealing with it. The thing is they would probably be in the EU already or near to it if not for Yanukovych.

Ukraine is basically 15-20 years behind countries like Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Baltic states etc. If not for putin's meddling they would be slowly but surely joining civilised Europe.

Unfortunetly it wasn't to be .

Nah, Yanukovich was just a tool. Look at EUs behavior when Russia directly invaded, with casset bombing and like. Even if we Ukraine all of a sudden became a beacon of enlightenment, a fucking Valinor, EU would've hardly accpeted Ukraine, because it could've jeopardize Russia's gas and oil.

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Never did.

I'm just saying I don't think it was ever a realistic option (joining NATO) since the west didn't really want to tangle with Russia as Ukraine was red line for them (but not for the west imo)

Yep, the west never actually did anything, nothing substantial was promised, and Merkel iirc shot up the pathway for Ukraine almost from the get go. But apparently it really doesn't matter, Russia invaded anyway, and would've invaded anyway.

 

[Tomice]

Nah, Yanukovich was just a tool. Look at EUs behavior when Russia directly invaded, with casset bombing and like. Even if we Ukraine all of a sudden became a beacon of enlightenment, a fucking Valinor, EU would've hardly accpeted Ukraine, because it could've jeopardize Russia's gas and oil.

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Yep, the west never actually did anything, nothing substantial was promised, and Merkel iirc shot up the pathway for Ukraine almost from the get go. But apparently it really doesn't matter, Russia invaded anyway, and would've invaded anyway.

I personally think a lot of the debate here and finger pointing and "blaming the west" shaming people is because there is a unfortunate conflation between blaming the west for not preventing this war (most people in that group) and blaming them for causing it (the true few Putin apologists). I think those are two totally different things but people are often automatically criticized as if they are doing both without making the distinction.

 

[Knowah]

The exact opposite really. Everyone understands this, which is why there is so much handwringing about it constantly.

Conversely, EU + US and their allies are still far and away the economic superpower bloc of this world.

It really is a testament to propaganda that the west is so convinced of Chinese exceptionalism.

In reality, China is a totaltarian regime that has complete control over their own banking. The collapse of China as we know it will be spectacular to most but expected by a few. You cannot write lines of credit with your controlled currency and artificially inflate/deflate that currency up and down at your own whim without creating massive blowback economically at some point.

The issue is China completely controls their economy to the point that they can (for now) control the pressures that are building on the economy. However, that pressure has already popped at points. See the housing market and Evergrande debt default.

Now look at that population bomb they created. Their entire population, over a BILLION, is about to fold in on itself due to one child laws of the past and the current inability to create upwards mobility for the vast majority of the population. At its core, China is a majority third world country. The small (relative to the entire country) population hubs that SHOW signs of being first world bely how massive the country is.

We look at places like Beijing and Shanghai and see 20 million people living on top of each other in fancy skyscrappers. This is less than 5% of the total population. The difference compared to the US is that in the US and other western countries the quality of life outside New York is not VASTLY different from the quality of life in Alabama. Sure, there are less concerts, no sports events, but the luxuries all for the msot part still exist. Now compare that to variance in quality of life from Shanghai to Yanshi, Shandong. It's near what you would see in third world Africa. Dirt floors, sewage mixing with drinking water, and horse draw carriages. In many ways, worse than third world Africa.

 

[swag]

How would that benefit them though?

Simple. A negotiating tactic. Give us concessions and more favorable negotiating conditions or we'll continue to bomb maternity wards.

This is basically becoming a national hostage situation.

 

[Post Ironic]

Never did.

I'm just saying I don't think it was ever a realistic option (joining NATO) since the west didn't really want to tangle with Russia as Ukraine was red line for them (but not for the west imo)

You literally said above in your initial post that the west did threaten Russia.

 

[BayernFan]

What is it with the Russians and losing all that equipment?

Their army looks rather amateurish imo.

 

[Tomice]

Simple. A negotiating tactic. Give us concessions and more favorable negotiating conditions or we'll continue to bomb maternity wards.

This is basically becoming a national hostage situation.

Yep, the west already threw the kitchen sink at them. not a lot more left you can threaten them with