Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (58 Viewers)

kappa96

Senior Member
Jun 20, 2018
7,475

interesting interview, Desember 2021.

Even tho Putins arguments are clearly bullshit (about not being interested in conflict etc), this seems like a very "neutral" stance compared to later quotes from him:

This interview leaves me to think that there must have been a huge dissonance/barrier between NATO/EU and Russia that ultimately led to diplomacy breaking down completely.

Normal diplomatic talks would have resulted in a some sort of compromise and should have been very much possible with each part reaching a mutual benefit of some sort. This conflict was "discussed" for almost 10 years but still they failed to find any sort of solution.

Ultimately, with these enormous political motivations of greed/expansionism etc hanging in the background, real diplomacy was never actually even an option this time.

My conclusion is that Putin must have been lying constantly in earlier interviews or moving his stance to an extreme in the actual negotations, because his view in these videos/interviews are quite "mild" compared to what was reported actually happening in the real negotations and the actual terms that was reported later.

This also answers the matter (or rather further speculates it) that a lot of people were taken by surprise by the invasion: it seems like the Russian tone was changing very agressively from the start of 2022 compared to earlier statements.

Also, im not sure when Russia started to ramp up the troops on the Ukranian border to an extreme, but it felt like it was happening very fast (unsure, happy to be corrected about this)
Translation: We like to stay out of our sphere of influence and kindly or not fuck off from Easter Europe so we can exert that influenced unmolested.

Or

"How dare this countries seek a better future for themselves, while surpassing Russia in infrastructure and better living conditions.
Get back in line, Plebs."
 

Buy on AliExpress.com
Jun 16, 2020
12,435
March 3, 4:00 pm EST

The Russian military has continued its unsuccessful attempts to encircle Kyiv and capture Kharkiv. The Russians continued to attack piecemeal, committing a few battalion tactical groups at a time rather than concentrating overwhelming force to achieve decisive effects. Russian commanders appear to prefer opening up new lines of advance for regiment-sized operations but have been unable to achieve meaningful synergies between efforts along different axes toward the same objectives. They have also continued conducting operations in southern Ukraine along three diverging axes rather than concentrating on one or attempting mutually supporting efforts. These failures of basic operational art—long a strong suit of the Soviet military and heavily studied at Russian military academies—remain inexplicable as does the Russian military’s failure to gain air superiority or at least to ground the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian conventional military continues to underperform badly, although it may still wear down and defeat the conventional Ukrainian military by sheer force of numbers and brutality. Initial indications that Russia is mobilizing reinforcements from as far away as the Pacific Ocean are concerning in this respect. Those indications also suggest, however, that the Russian General Staff has concluded that the forces it initially concentrated for the invasion of Ukraine will be insufficient to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.

Operations to envelop Kyiv remain Russia’s main effort. Russian troops are also continuing three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.

The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the east.

Russian forces in the south resumed offensive operations toward Mykolayiv on March 3 after securing Kherson on March 2, but do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa. Russian forces likely seek to force Mariupol to capitulate by destroying critical civilian infrastructure and killing civilians to create a humanitarian catastrophe—an approach Russian forces have repeatedly taken in Syria.

- - - Updated - - -

General Staff of the Armed Forces

Forces of Ukraine

9 min

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 04.03 were approximately:

personnel - 9166 people,

tanks - 251 units,

Armored combat vehicles - 939 units,

artillery systems -105 units,

MLRS - 50 units,

air defense means - 18 units,

aircraft - 33 units (to be specified),

helicopters - 37 units,

automotive equipment - 404 units,

light speedboats - 2 units,

tanks with PPM - 60,

UAV operational and tactical level - 3,

Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by high intensity of hostilities.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
84,799
Interesting read that interprets Putin's moves from the perspective of a semipro gambler:
https://newlinesmag.com/argument/why-putin-is-playing-poker-not-chess/

First, the caveats. Yeah, there's a chunk of details with professional backgammon jargon in the middle that can be a distraction. And the Newlines Institute is known as a rather US hawkish (imperialist to some) think tank, with a track record of calling out China for Uyghur genocide and seeking political transformation in the Middle East.

But it describes the long poker game Putin is likely playing, why he might seem out of his mind even when he might not be, and failures on the part of the West to play sufficient counter moves. (Short story: the West holds a much better hand but has failed to draw lines with clear ramifications for crossing them to show Putin they have the means and they aren't bluffing.)
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
84,799
So many western companies are leaving makes me wonder is there any serious Russian business besides the gas and oil sector.
And per my last post, that is a last great bargaining chip. Good poker players don't blow their wad too early. People are complaining about sanction loopholes, Russian oil, etc. That's your deterrent.
 
Jul 7, 2018
503
Western companies leaving Russia are not going to overthrow Putin. In fact, they are helping him to do the dirty work. He doesn’t need to censure those companies now, since they are not in Russia anymore. People here are underestimating the power of companies in a society.
 

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