Paulo Dybala - ST - Palermo (41 Viewers)

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Bianconero_Aus

Beppe Marotta Is My God
May 26, 2009
81,127




So you think we'll get him? :D
Nope, the same old story will happen. We'll be linked with him from now until about mid-July, when Zamparini will announce that he won't be sold for anything under 30M or whatever, Marotta will publicly announce that we were never involved in negotiations for the player, and he'll end up at Arsenal (or another rich EPL/Spanish club)

IMO we will make a move for Falcao when Tevez eventually leaves. Would be a typical great man move :D
 

Hist

Founder of Hism
Jan 18, 2009
11,620
yeah, hes not even close to Raul, but i havent seen anyone say that either. probably missed those posts



yep, messi is a few realms under him, Cassano (Roma) level at best :p. but seriously, you cant compare players from different eras so easily. you have to take all factors into consideration. the strength of the era (Del Pieros > Messis), the strength of the league (DPs > Messis), the strength of your team compared to other teams of that era (Barcelona /and Spain, which shows what a team Messi had around him/ 2008-2012 was too strong for any other team of that time), the quality of other great players from your era (again. DPs era > Messis), the style of play your team uses and the teams use against you (DP had it much harder), the number of great teams/rivals you had (DPs > Messis) etc. ofcourse, if you look at stats only, Messis career seems more impressive, but thats not the way players should be compared. in fact, there is no way we can compare them, there can only be preferences and opinions on who is better/greater/whatever.

heres a thought for example, imagine Del Piero in the 2008-20012 Barcelona instead of Messi, and see the result (IMO DP still wouldnt score as much as Messi, simply because he plays differently, but i think they wouldnt lose to Inter 2010 and Chelsea 2012 with DP-Etoo/Ibra/Villa upfront, also that 2012 classico had Del Piero written all over it, hes the type of player to decide such games). also try to imagine messi in any Juve team (Lippis, Capellos, Serie B, post Calciopoli) Del Piero played in.

taking the factors into consideration i mentioned above, Del Piero is definitely the better football player to me, but Messi achieved more (individually) due to given circumstances, not superiority in talent/quality.
All the factors you cited in favor of del-piero would also count for any single player from that era. Del Piero wasn't even the best player of his generation man though he was pretty close.

Even if for the sake of argument we do grant that alex was the best of his generation and that all those historical factors only obtain for him, the gulf in quality between Messi and Alex is just too huge.

Alex, like Messi, played for top teams and was supported by insanely talented players all his career barring his last 3 years with us. And sure I will grant that its tougher to score a decade ago than now and all that. But look at the gap in numbers. Alex reached the 25 goals mark in all competitions only once in 1998.

Messi has been scoring over 40 goals per season every year for 7 years now. This includes seasons where he scores 53, 60 and 73 goals. You need to multiply alex's best season ever by 3 to get Messi's best. Thats just an insane gulf that no change in football over a decade can account for. Again this is not counting assists. Exaggerate the change in football in those 15 years all you want but that gulf of 3 multiples is just too big be accounted for to say that both players are equals let alone say that Alex was better.

So even if I grant all you assumptions (which can all be strongly argued against), the gap is too big for you to reasonably say they are equals let alone that Alex is better.

Why you assume that strikers from previous generations are better than current ones is beyond me. The game is much faster, the players are much more athletic, the tactics have evolved and involve much more tricks, Fitness doctors can now get more out of a single player than they could before, the pitches are better, training and dieting is better, the shoes and the ball itself are better, the stadiums are larger and more noisy, the salaries are higher, more people are watching the game and more media are reporting on it. Italian football is struggling because it hasn't evolved with the rest and is following the same methods of the 90s. Thats one way to question your assumptions but even without doing that, you need the 15 year gap to diminish Messi's quality by more than 3 multiples to be able to say Alex is better.
 

Post Ironic

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2013
42,253
You are missing something out. The probability that a player who has had one good season to have another good one is very much lower than the probability that a player who has had 3 consecutive good seasons to have another good one. Everyone involves an element of risk either through injury or through team collapse of through personal life problems or through inexplicable loss of skill like torres. But that doesn't mean that some purchases are more guaranteed than others.

Amauri was bought after one good season, though the rest of his career before and after that was very under-whelming. It is in that sense that he had a bad ratio of cost to risk.
Torres on the other hand carried a substantial injury risk but a very little performance risk. Funnily enough, what screwed Chelsea was not the aspect that had a higher probability of occurring but rather he is a rare case where the event with the lower probability occurred.


Bale, Suarez and to a less extent Di-Maria, have a record of consistency at a very high performance level. Thats why they will probably come good.
Dybala and others like firmino and anderson have no record because they are just way too young. Thats why they will naturally be cheaper today than they would be 3 years from now assuming they maintain the same performance level. But if you do buy them today, the probability that their next season is good is lower than what that probability would be had they been performing on that level for years.

In all cases, you are trying to predict the future on the basis of the past. The past is usually a good indicator of the future just not a perfect indicator. The smaller the past record the less resources your statistical tools have to work with and the less accurate your predictions are going to be. Hence, players with no past are cheaper while those with a good past are more expensive. This is one element among others that goes into pricing ofcoarse.
:tup:

Yeah. I was over-simplifying it. I was just trying to say that all players carry some risk of flopping, regardless of price. Of course the potential monetary loss from a player like Bale or Di Maria flopping is so immense that they're pretty sure things coming off several good seasons.

Dybala costing 1/3-1/2 of the price has a much higher chance of flopping... But as he is young and performing quite well already the chance is slimmer than say an Amauri who had his one good season at say 25. It's much more likely in my opinion for it to be an outlier when your first good season is in mid-20s, than with someone who starts tearing it up at 20-22 years old before they even reach their physical peak. But that's the reason Dybala and Anderson are worth so much even though they don't have much history to say they consistently perform as a top player.

It will be interesting to see how they turn out, especially if we manage to snag one of them.
 

JuveID

Allegri and Beppe Mania
Feb 5, 2015
1,113
Nope, the same old story will happen. We'll be linked with him from now until about mid-July, when Zamparini will announce that he won't be sold for anything under 30M or whatever, Marotta will publicly announce that we were never involved in negotiations for the player, and he'll end up at Arsenal (or another rich EPL/Spanish club)

IMO we will make a move for Falcao when Tevez eventually leaves. Would be a typical great man move :D
You are not conviced that dybala will come.
And you think we will make a move for falcao.
Contradiction.
 

Hist

Founder of Hism
Jan 18, 2009
11,620
:tup:

Yeah. I was over-simplifying it. I was just trying to say that all players carry some risk of flopping, regardless of price. Of course the potential monetary loss from a player like Bale or Di Maria flopping is so immense that they're pretty sure things coming off several good seasons.

Dybala costing 1/3-1/2 of the price has a much higher chance of flopping... But as he is young and performing quite well already the chance is slimmer than say an Amauri who had his one good season at say 25. It's much more likely in my opinion for it to be an outlier when your first good season is in mid-20s, than with someone who starts tearing it up at 20-22 years old before they even reach their physical peak. But that's the reason Dybala and Anderson are worth so much even though they don't have much history to say they consistently perform as a top player.

It will be interesting to see how they turn out, especially if we manage to snag one of them.
:tup:

Anderson seems better to me though. I like his decision making and flair more.
 

HAZEM

L'architetto
Apr 22, 2008
8,219
my only downside of this kid is that he got this arrogant asshole vibe like Cr7, which i don't like.. but this kids will be even better with time. i would say get risk of paying him 40m instead of 25m or even 30m for falcao.

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:tup:

Anderson seems better to me though. I like his decision making and flair more.
i like anderson too! but people say we can't do shopping in lazio. they hate us.
 

Hust

Senior Member
Hustini
May 29, 2005
93,703
Why does lazio hate us? If anything they should like is because we punish roma

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my only downside of this kid is that he got this arrogant asshole vibe like Cr7, which i don't like.. but this kids will be even better with time. i would say get risk of paying him 40m instead of 25m or even 30m for falcao.

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i like anderson too! but people say we can't do shopping in lazio. they hate us.
What does he do to seem arrogant? He seems like a quiet lad
 

HAZEM

L'architetto
Apr 22, 2008
8,219
Why does lazio hate us? If anything they should like is because we punish roma

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What does he do to seem arrogant? He seems like a quiet lad
I heard that lately they don't like to sell us their players. rumor from here actually :)
 

Hust

Senior Member
Hustini
May 29, 2005
93,703
I heard that lately they don't like to sell us their players. rumor from here actually :)
Are they mad about Licht & Pavel? :D

We rarely do business with them though. I wonder what the real reason is. All well. We need to get used to the fact no one likes us. Well, maybe Sassuolo does. :)
 

Post Ironic

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2013
42,253
Are they mad about Licht & Pavel? :D

We rarely do business with them though. I wonder what the real reason is. All well. We need to get used to the fact no one likes us. Well, maybe Sassuolo does. :)
We're diametrically opposed to Lotito in terms of how Serie A should move forward. Agnelli and Marotta have both made less-than-positive comments about Lotito and Tavecchio. We don't seem to get along with Lotito very well at the moment.

It's strange, for we have done a few transfers with them, without a lot of hoopla, or upset about them dealing with us, like when we try to deal with Fiorentina, Napoli, or Inter.

Udinese and Sassuolo. :p
 

Fred

Senior Member
Oct 2, 2003
41,113
if you were in Marotta's shoes as a Juventus manager and you'd have a chance to sign either a young Del Piero or a young Messi who would you choose?
yeah, hes not even close to Raul, but i havent seen anyone say that either. probably missed those posts



yep, messi is a few realms under him, Cassano (Roma) level at best :p. but seriously, you cant compare players from different eras so easily. you have to take all factors into consideration. the strength of the era (Del Pieros > Messis), the strength of the league (DPs > Messis), the strength of your team compared to other teams of that era (Barcelona /and Spain, which shows what a team Messi had around him/ 2008-2012 was too strong for any other team of that time), the quality of other great players from your era (again. DPs era > Messis), the style of play your team uses and the teams use against you (DP had it much harder), the number of great teams/rivals you had (DPs > Messis) etc. ofcourse, if you look at stats only, Messis career seems more impressive, but thats not the way players should be compared. in fact, there is no way we can compare them, there can only be preferences and opinions on who is better/greater/whatever.

heres a thought for example, imagine Del Piero in the 2008-20012 Barcelona instead of Messi, and see the result (IMO DP still wouldnt score as much as Messi, simply because he plays differently, but i think they wouldnt lose to Inter 2010 and Chelsea 2012 with DP-Etoo/Ibra/Villa upfront, also that 2012 classico had Del Piero written all over it, hes the type of player to decide such games). also try to imagine messi in any Juve team (Lippis, Capellos, Serie B, post Calciopoli) Del Piero played in.

taking the factors into consideration i mentioned above, Del Piero is definitely the better football player to me, but Messi achieved more (individually) due to given circumstances, not superiority in talent/quality.

You are such a biased person. Nobody other than a Juve fan would even dare say Del Piero is as good as Messi or C.Ronaldo for that matter. As Hist rightfully said, DP wasn't even the best player in his generation, not even close actually. The guy was a Juve legend, no doubt about it, and his loyalty to the club plus his consistency and majestic ability endeared him to Juve fans more than most other players, but you have to at least try and keep your emotions in check.

The ironic thing is, I'm sure you're one of those who criticize Messi for his form with the Argentine NT(and rightfully so, I don't disagree here) , yet if you're trying to further a DP agenda, that doesn't make sense. DP was benched for the Italian NT in quite a few tournaments, something you will probably conveniently forget.
 
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