China are leading in gold medals (37) ahead of the USA (33).
However, just like in Tokyo, I expect the USA to win it in the end by 1 or 2 more gold medals.
China is almost guaranteed 2 more golds in artistic swimming and weightlifting, and they can win a third one because they have a girl in the final in heavyweight boxing. But 40 will probably be their maximum.
The USA have 33 and they are about to win the 34th in women's football (leading 1:0 in the final 5 minutes before the end). They have 2 more guaranteed medals in basketball, which puts them at 36. They are in the volleyball final. They have chances for 2 golds in wrestling, but what's more important, they are still playing for 7 golds in athletics and they are top favorites in at least 3-4.
My prediction: China 40 golds, USA 41 or 42. (in Tokyo it was 39-38 for the USA)