Yeah I think he has a good chance. He showed poise, intelligence, and is obviously a lot more polished than trump. Now 8 years from now the demographic makeup will change drastically so who knows if his brand will still have the same appeal. But it's safe to say that this exposure has really propulsed him as one of the top Republicans.
I dunno. Short man with a compensating beard is a big American liability. Goth eyeliner aside. America isn't even ready for Ron DeSantis in lifts. This matters to Americans to project global leadership. (Can we just admit that America is shallow AF and get on with it?)
Then add that he is an intellectual. While there are some who see that as a good trait, most Americans seem to resent intelligence. And the future of the GOP right now is projecting males who never went to college, so that puts him on the list of targets to burn rather than worship.
Vance seems to utilize that intelligence it to pivot himself in whatever contortions get him the right access to power and legitimacy. So in that sense he could have the instincts of a George Wallace. But given the GOP's demographic projections, he'd honestly have more success pivoting as a future Democrat. His only saving grace might be doubling down on the evangelicals and traditionalists and own the barefoot wife at home thing and praise be to God.