'Murica! (402 Viewers)

[Ronn]

This final Selzer poll is bad news for Trump

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If you don't know Ann Selzer, these are her final predictions in the last decade. In other words, she is THE POLL.

 

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[Badass J Elkann]

This final Selzer poll is bad news for Trump

- - - Updated - - -

If you don't know Ann Selzer, these are her final predictions in the last decade

lol even if Trump was up say 7 points on Harris in Iowa that in itself is a disaster. Seriously the pollsters have totally underestimated Harris and did not account for the large wave of women/first time women voters.

Lord knows how the betting market still has Trump as a clear favourite.

 

[campionesidd]

lol even if Trump was up say 7 points on Harris in Iowa that in itself is a disaster. Seriously the pollsters have totally underestimated Harris and did not account for the large wave of women/first time women voters.

Lord knows how the betting market still has Trump as a clear favourite.

Not anymore.
There was a huge shift after this poll.

Predictit now has Kamala as favorite: 57-48
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Kalshi has her at 52-48
https://kalshi.com/

She’s still lagging on polymarket, but has closed the gap significantly
https://polymarket.com/event/presid...24-us-presidential-election?tid=1730598371518

 

[Badass J Elkann]

Not anymore.
There was a huge shift after this poll.

Predictit now has Kamala as favorite: 57-48
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Kalshi has her at 52-48
https://kalshi.com/

She’s still lagging on polymarket, but has closed the gap significantly
https://polymarket.com/event/presid...24-us-presidential-election?tid=1730598371518

Ah ok, Ive not checked the market in the last couple of days, I mean I slapped around £2,000 on Harris to win over the last couple of months especially when her odds drifted out, for the life of me I couldn't make any sense of the betting market other than either people who were delusional enough to honestly believe Trump would win, but to me and along the lines of what Michael Moore said sometime ago, the women are going to vote in huge numbers, so much so the polls wouldnt really account for them, so I can't honestly say I was taking the polls too seriously, especially a lot of them are Trump bias polls

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Good chance Vance will be president at some point, regardless of the results Tuesday

You really think so? I'm not sure that I would go that far, but imo he definitely had a very good showing in most of these debates and interviews. Of course, he is being compared to Trump for this so the bar isn't high, but I think he'll be prominent for a while regardless of results next week.

Ah ok, Ive not checked the market in the last couple of days, I mean I slapped around £2,000 on Harris to win over the last couple of months especially when her odds drifted out, for the life of me I couldn't make any sense of the betting market other than either people who were delusional enough to honestly believe Trump would win, but to me and along the lines of what Michael Moore said sometime ago, the women are going to vote in huge numbers, so much so the polls wouldnt really account for them, so I can't honestly say I was taking the polls too seriously, especially a lot of them are Trump bias polls

Jesus man, you're crazy.

I don't have any betting app, but out of curiosity can you make a parlay with that?

 

[campionesidd]

You really think so? I'm not sure that I would go that far, but imo he definitely had a very good showing in most of these debates and interviews. Of course, he is being compared to Trump for this so the bar isn't high, but I think he'll be prominent for a while regardless of results next week.


Jesus man, you're crazy.

I don't have any betting app, but out of curiosity can you make a parlay with that?

I think Vance is a smart guy who just pretends to be dumb. His debate performance showed that. Very insidious and sneaky fellow.

 

[Badass J Elkann]

You really think so? I'm not sure that I would go that far, but imo he definitely had a very good showing in most of these debates and interviews. Of course, he is being compared to Trump for this so the bar isn't high, but I think he'll be prominent for a while regardless of results next week.


Jesus man, you're crazy.

I don't have any betting app, but out of curiosity can you make a parlay with that?

Vance is a sell out, no doubt he will reinvent himself and ditch the pro Trump thing after the election and paint himself as someone else, fucking hell he talks so much shit though, even if he is a 'smooth' talker.

Yeah I'd go as far to say its the biggest bet I've ever put on even if it has been over a the course of a few months till now, but hey if it comes through I'm gonna have a freaking good time, besides I'm trying to save up money for a trip to the US for the club world cup, all the more fitting that the US election helps fund this dream!

Dont think there is any parlay option, I've been betting on the exchange both for Harris to win and Trump not to win depending on the greater return was.

I already had about £20 on Michelle Obama not to win after Biden stepped aside and before Harris was officially announced top of the ticket.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Vance is a sell out, no doubt he will reinvent himself and ditch the pro Trump thing after the election and paint himself as someone else, fucking hell he talks so much shit though, even if he is a 'smooth' talker.

Yeah I'd go as far to say its the biggest bet I've ever put on even if it has been over a the course of a few months till now, but hey if it comes through I'm gonna have a freaking good time, besides I'm trying to save up money for a trip to the US for the club world cup, all the more fitting that the US election helps fund this dream!

Dont think there is any parlay option, I've been betting on the exchange both for Harris to win and Trump not to win depending on the greater return was.

I already had about £20 on Michelle Obama not to win after Biden stepped aside and before Harris was officially announced top of the ticket.

"Trumpism" will be around long after Trump himself is gone, so I don't think he'll have to do much reinventing.

Well lets just hope that you don't lose out here.

 

[acmilan]

Good chance Vance will be president at some point, regardless of the results Tuesday

Highly unlikely, unless he completely re-invents the very nature of his being and even then there is too much tape of him shitting on Trump and his supporters for them to ever fully trust him.

Trump has a knack for connecting on a very primal level with the spineless, dickless, gullible portions of the population - losers with daddy issues who have the IQ of a 5 year old and the emotional intelligence of a 3 year old. Losers in life, who are prone to projecting their failures onto others and never take personal accountability.
You know who fits that description to a T - Donald Trump, himself. That's why he finds it so natural and easy to connect with this type of personality, because he's lived it his entire life. And, luckily for him, there are plenty of people in the US who carry most, if not all, of those enviable qualities in a tight little package.

JP Mandel, the man with two beards, however, is actually an intelligent fella ... intelligent, but weird and awkward in the way he tries to connect with people, in general, let alone the ones described above. He tries to connect with maga on a pseudo-intellectual level, but even that is a level beyond their reach - it's like speaking a to them in a foreign language. Their level is one of primal and rudimentary communication, that's the language they understand and the language Trump speaks well. JP Mandel would consider that type of communication to be beneath him ... and even if he tried to fake it, he would just make things even more weird than he usually does.
Unluckily for JP, the people he would have managed to more naturally connect with are way too intelligent to fool even before he chose to so sell his soul to the maga world. Now, he is a stuck in a world that distrusts him and even hates him, and will probably blame him for Trump's imminent failure. And I haven't even mentioned that his wife and 3 kids are of the wrong "skin color" for way too big a portion of the maga crowd - yet another reason not to trust him, as if they needed more of those.

 

[GordoDeCentral]

You really think so? I'm not sure that I would go that far, but imo he definitely had a very good showing in most of these debates and interviews. Of course, he is being compared to Trump for this so the bar isn't high, but I think he'll be prominent for a while regardless of results next week.


Jesus man, you're crazy.

I don't have any betting app, but out of curiosity can you make a parlay with that?

Highly unlikely, unless he completely re-invents the very nature of his being and even then there is too much tape of him shitting on Trump and his supporters for them to ever fully trust him.

Trump has a knack for connecting on a very primal level with the spineless, dickless, gullible portions of the population - losers with daddy issues who have the IQ of a 5 year old and the emotional intelligence of a 3 year old. Losers in life, who are prone to projecting their failures onto others and never take personal accountability.
You know who fits that description to a T - Donald Trump, himself. That's why he finds it so natural and easy to connect with this type of personality, because he's lived it his entire life. And, luckily for him, there are plenty of people in the US who carry most, if not all, of those enviable qualities in a tight little package.

JP Mandel, the man with two beards, however, is actually an intelligent fella ... intelligent, but weird and awkward in the way he tries to connect with people, in general, let alone the ones described above. He tries to connect with maga on a pseudo-intellectual level, but even that is a level beyond their reach - it's like speaking a to them in a foreign language. Their level is one of primal and rudimentary communication, that's the language they understand and the language Trump speaks well. JP Mandel would consider that type of communication to be beneath him ... and even if he tried to fake it, he would just make things even more weird than he usually does.
Unluckily for JP, the people he would have managed to more naturally connect with are way too intelligent to fool even before he chose to so sell his soul to the maga world. Now, he is a stuck in a world that distrusts him and even hates him, and will probably blame him for Trump's imminent failure. And I haven't even mentioned that his wife and 3 kids are of the wrong "skin color" for way too big a portion of the maga crowd - yet another reason not to trust him, as if they needed more of those.

Yeah I think he has a good chance. He showed poise, intelligence, and is obviously a lot more polished than trump. Now 8 years from now the demographic makeup will change drastically so who knows if his brand will still have the same appeal. But it's safe to say that this exposure has really propulsed him as one of the top Republicans.

 

[s4tch]

does elon still want the epstein client list released?

 

[Osman]

This final Selzer poll is bad news for Trump

- - - Updated - - -

If you don't know Ann Selzer, these are her final predictions in the last decade. In other words, she is THE POLL.

All the Ann Selzer memes of how accurate she allways been and how that triggers Maga, has been hilarious to follow in twitter.

 

[s4tch]

this is hilarious and sad at the same time. it took maga boy a minute to actually think about tariffs and realize that donald is talking utter bs about this matter

 

[Post Ironic]

does elon still want the epstein client list released?

Looking forward to the MAGA spin and denial of this.

 

[Ronn]

All the Ann Selzer memes of how accurate she allways been and how that triggers Maga, has been hilarious to follow in twitter.

I remember how her poll 4 years ago shocked everyone. All the polls showed Iowa to be close and then she released a Trump+8 poll. She and Jon Ralston of Nevada are masters of their state.
also, polling markets not moving after her poll shows how bs they are.

 

[s4tch]

gold.

 

[Enron]

Yeah I think he has a good chance. He showed poise, intelligence, and is obviously a lot more polished than trump. Now 8 years from now the demographic makeup will change drastically so who knows if his brand will still have the same appeal. But it's safe to say that this exposure has really propulsed him as one of the top Republicans.

It’s hard to tell. he has a chance but the Republican primary is a slobber knocker. where little things that don’t really have anything to do with governing or policies can destroy a campaign

 

[Bjerknes]

This final Selzer poll is bad news for Trump

- - - Updated - - -

If you don't know Ann Selzer, these are her final predictions in the last decade. In other words, she is THE POLL.

Perhaps some Iowa soybean farmers are finally coming 'round on the tariff nonsense. If China doesn't end up buying their beans they're going to need a massive bailout.

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2...tor-quiet-about-trumps-damaging-tariff-plans/

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I remember how her poll 4 years ago shocked everyone. All the polls showed Iowa to be close and then she released a Trump+8 poll. She and Jon Ralston of Nevada are masters of their state.
also, polling markets not moving after her poll shows how bs they are.

It looks like Poly is swinging back to parody soon.

But you gotta wonder who some of the larger players in this market are?

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730661236446

Fredi99999, zngxgl, reptrump. Interesting "big" players.

The name of this game is buy low, sell high. Probably a good time to buy Kamala last week. We did an experiment in college where we set up a market for weather outcomes on a particular day and it was pretty interesting. The contracts that looked like being the "winners" because people were buying them actually ended up being the biggest losers.

 

[Seven]

I can’t wait until the gay sex tape of Peter Thiel and JD Vance drops. You know they’re fucking.

It's weirder than that.

Vance does everything Thiel wants him to, but up to the point of fucking.

It's not necessarily that he wouldn't. It's that it's enough for Thiel to know that he would. Thiel doesn't actually have to fuck Vance to feel like he is fucking him.

It's all about the mind.

Verstuurd vanaf mijn ONEPLUS A6003 met Tapatalk

 

[Ronn]

Can context finders find some context here too?