'Murica! (315 Viewers)

[Badass J Elkann]

He doesn't and deep down most voters feel this in their gut. I bet even @Hust knows Trump doesn't care. When it comes down to it, that is going to make people question voting for him. And that's ignoring his crimes, rape cases, etc. ... If we look at what's actually at stake and the important issues here like climate, abortion, the Supreme Court, voting rights, ... the majority of Americans simply do not align with the Republicans.

I just don't see how Trump is going to win these elections. Everything points to him losing bigly.

Unfortunately it seems many if not all of his supporters are just gullable idiots who believes the crap he spouts out.

I honestly believe Trump 2.0 will be 100 times worse, he will be untouchable to the sense he'll make up his own laws to protect himself and keep him in power for as long as possible, through the appointment of bent judges such as the likes of Aileen Cannon and those in the supreme court, I wouldn't be surprised if he has his own private army too. Honestly I'm quite fearful about the possibilities of a 2nd Trump presidency and I don't even live in the US!

 

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[Bjerknes]

He doesn't and deep down most voters feel this in their gut. I bet even @Hust knows Trump doesn't care. When it comes down to it, that is going to make people question voting for him. And that's ignoring his crimes, rape cases, etc. ... If we look at what's actually at stake and the important issues here like climate, abortion, the Supreme Court, voting rights, ... the majority of Americans simply do not align with the Republicans.

I just don't see how Trump is going to win these elections. Everything points to him losing bigly.

He will win because inflation is super high, the Dems bottled everything with Biden, and he dodged an assassination attempt. It's very similar to how Reagan won the Presidency in the 80's.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/21/shooting-reagan-trump-presidency-00169826

Unfortunately the "Parents" of today are basically destroying their kids' futures with insurmountable debt and inflation, but obviously they don't care or are too stupid to understand.

 

[Siamak]

If Trump continues to push for eliminating income taxes, he will garner votes on that, too. Upper middle class and above would be the main beneficiaries of that (the more you make, the more you are taxed), so that would be pretty cool. I'd love to have a few more thousand each paycheck.

However, he says he will replace income taxes with larger tariffs on foreign goods. This is an inflationary nightmare considering we don't make anything here anymore. This will likely cause all sorts of price increases on various goods, especially those at big box stores like Walmart. Food prices will probably rise as well if those tariffs include imports from Mexico, and there is a SHIT ton of imports from Mexico (veggies and fruits, avocados, et cetera). I would hope those tariffs would not include food, but chances are they will, and Trump will probably use that as leverage on the border issue. It would definitely be a time to buy locally as much as possible and don't go to the garbage big box stores. This will of course hurt the poor and middle class again.

So basically, people will have more money, but inflation will probably remain rampant on everything apart from gas (since he will open up drilling, which is good), while the value of the dollar is raped again. The lower income people who love their Saturday mornings at Walmart will be fucked, but hey, they're stupid for shopping there anyway. The name of the game will be: buy local and buy stocks/commodities/crypto.

Excuse for my ignorance, will be Prices lower then? what's about wages?
with eliminating tax the government will make money on tariffs as far as i understand the trump's plan.

 

[Bjerknes]

Excuse for my ignorance, will be Prices lower then? what's about wages?
with eliminating tax the government will make money on tariffs as far as i understand the trump's plan.

If you place a tariff on a good, it's essentially a tax on that good. Someone will have to pay for that increase in cost, and chances are it will be passed onto the US consumer.

I would assume real wages would increase with elimination of the income tax. But again, this will be largely offset due to inflation. Most people who don't understand economics will think they're better off, while the hidden cost of inflation will offset.

 

[Siamak]

If you place a tariff on a good, it's essentially a tax on that good. Someone will have to pay for that increase in cost, and chances are it will be passed onto the US consumer.

I would assume real wages would increase with elimination of the income tax. But again, this will be largely offset due to inflation. Most people who don't understand economics will think they're better off, while the hidden cost of inflation will offset.

The chance of this happening is pretty close to zero, but even it happens essentially sales tax will be increased for removing income tax.

 

[Ronn]

He will win because inflation is super high, the Dems bottled everything with Biden, and he dodged an assassination attempt. It's very similar to how Reagan won the Presidency in the 80's.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/21/shooting-reagan-trump-presidency-00169826

Unfortunately the "Parents" of today are basically destroying their kids' futures with insurmountable debt and inflation, but obviously they don't care or are too stupid to understand.

The similarity is inflation, but Trump is not Reagan, who was a great speaker. Also, he already lost the election once.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

The similarity is inflation, but Trump is not Reagan, who was a great speaker. Also, he already lost the election once.

Everyone is ignoring this.

 

[Bjerknes]

The similarity is inflation, but Trump is not Reagan, who was a great speaker. Also, he already lost the election once.

Everyone is ignoring this.

Yes, he did lose the election once. But it wasn't by a landslide.

I think the only people ignoring that are those who say the election was stolen.

Those people were already voting Trump anyway.

 

[Seven]

Everyone is ignoring this.

Exactly.

People view Trump as this insurmountable challenge. Someone whose charisma is so strong the average American cannot help but vote for him. Donald Trump might be a lot of things, but he's no Siren. The fucker lost the last elections. A couple of months ago that same charisma was going to make it impossible for him to be convicted by a jury, yet they came to a unanimous verdict of guilty of 34 felony counts.

No. This dude is going to lose bigly.

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Yes, he did lose the election once. But it wasn't by a landslide.

I think the only people ignoring that are those who say the election was stolen.

Those people were already voting Trump anyway.

It wasn't back then, it will be now.

Trump doesn't have the majority of voters on his side on a single important issue. Not a single one. If he even manages to promote some sort of plan or ideology, because most of the time it's just nothing. And the crazier his fans get, the more average voters will feel disdain. Do you really want to be a part of that group of religious extremists that see the Orange Man as the new Jesus? You probably don't.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Yes, he did lose the election once. But it wasn't by a landslide.

I think the only people ignoring that are those who say the election was stolen.

Those people were already voting Trump anyway.

It doesn't need to be a landslide though.

And you kinda hit the nail on the head for me there, Trump voters are already Trump voters. We've seen this song and dance before. Honestly he might even lose some more votes now. Also again, the #blackgirlmagic vote.

It's going to come down to key issues in battleground states, because how our elections work is ultimately stupid. Israel in Michigan, probably border security in Arizona, etc. I don't know what the big issues would be in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Exactly.

People view Trump as this insurmountable challenge. Someone whose charisma is so strong the average American cannot help but vote for him. Donald Trump might be a lot of things, but he's no Siren. The fucker lost the last elections. A couple of months ago that same charisma was going to make it impossible for him to be convicted by a jury, yet they came to a unanimous verdict of guilty of 34 felony counts.

No. This dude is going to lose bigly.

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It wasn't back then, it will be now.

I don't think he'll lose by a landslide tbh, but I think that since Kamala can speak in coherent sentences it'll seem good by contrast, despite her being unlikable. Because let's face it even though she's unlikable, she's still not Hillary level.

 

[swag]

The US gives demigod status to rich folks in a way that I can’t fully comprehend. I get it that they are successful, but most often than not they are held to a much lower standard because they have money. It’s a behaviour you expect in poor countries, not prosperous western countries.

It's true. And India has an insane amount of wealth inequality. How do you feel it's handled differently there? Just for comparison.

I know enough about American dysfunctions in this regard, but I never got my invite to the Ambani wedding.

If Trump continues to push for eliminating income taxes, he will garner votes on that, too. Upper middle class and above would be the main beneficiaries of that (the more you make, the more you are taxed), so that would be pretty cool. I'd love to have a few more thousand each paycheck.

However, he says he will replace income taxes with larger tariffs on foreign goods. This is an inflationary nightmare considering we don't make anything here anymore. This will likely cause all sorts of price increases on various goods, especially those at big box stores like Walmart. Food prices will probably rise as well if those tariffs include imports from Mexico, and there is a SHIT ton of imports from Mexico (veggies and fruits, avocados, et cetera). I would hope those tariffs would not include food, but chances are they will, and Trump will probably use that as leverage on the border issue. It would definitely be a time to buy locally as much as possible and don't go to the garbage big box stores. This will of course hurt the poor and middle class again.

So basically, people will have more money, but inflation will probably remain rampant on everything apart from gas (since he will open up drilling, which is good), while the value of the dollar is raped again. The lower income people who love their Saturday mornings at Walmart will be fucked, but hey, they're stupid for shopping there anyway. The name of the game will be: buy local and buy stocks/commodities/crypto.

Totally with you on the economics of this. Just as people were flipping out about McDonald's being called "luxury dining" in the US recently, shopping at Walmart and on Amazon is going to be "luxury shopping".

Hell, maybe even Temu....

Food is something I'm less concerned with as a financial impact, because consumers will wince at the first signs. Which is why I think any immigrant expulsion is going to immediately blow up in everyone's faces in lower labor supply and hence much higher labor prices for food, restaurants, and construction.

Food imports are also going to hit the U.S. seasonally, like people used to buy groceries. So anybody who wants strawberries in November is gonna get bent over.

I still don't get the drilling thing. For one, domestic drilling is by international corporates whose shareholders want them to sell to the highest bidder... not just to Americans at a friendly cheapskate discount. For another, America is not only pumping more oil than any nation has in history, for the first time since the 1950s domestic energy production has exceeded demand.

I saw the drill, baby, drill placards at the RNC, and I'm like, "Do they have no idea?" This year Biden was getting grief from the greens about the record levels of oil production.

He will win because inflation is super high, the Dems bottled everything with Biden, and he dodged an assassination attempt. It's very similar to how Reagan won the Presidency in the 80's.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/21/shooting-reagan-trump-presidency-00169826

Unfortunately the "Parents" of today are basically destroying their kids' futures with insurmountable debt and inflation, but obviously they don't care or are too stupid to understand.

Inflation was really high, but it's leveling off to normal. And it's a good guess that we'll see at least one rate drop this year. Still, people are going to want a pound of flesh to pay for their affront at a $5/pound chicken.

Though Reagan didn't face an assassination attempt until two months into his presidency. It wasn't pre-election.

Yes, he did lose the election once. But it wasn't by a landslide.

I think the only people ignoring that are those who say the election was stolen.

Those people were already voting Trump anyway.

The harder part for Trump now is he doesn't have the same leverage as in 2020 to call up Arizona and George and shake down election offices for votes.

Oddly, this might become one of the greatest legacies of Biden's one-off presidency.

 

[Ronn]

Yes, he did lose the election once. But it wasn't by a landslide.

I think the only people ignoring that are those who say the election was stolen.

Those people were already voting Trump anyway.

Incumbent presidents usually do not lose. It happened 3 times in past 100 years (besides Trump): Hoover, Carter and Bush 41. I can argue that economic uncertainty during COVID was not as bad as Great Depression (duh!) and double digit inflation during the Carter admin. The fact that he lost Georgia should tell you about his popularity.
Btw this election will certainly NOT be a landslide in favor of Harris. I think right now it’s a lean Trump, but it could change now that he’s not the youngest candidate lol.

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This is what donors probably saw:
These are what they failed to see:

 

[icemaη]

It's true. And India has an insane amount of wealth inequality. How do you feel it's handled differently there? Just for comparison.

I know enough about American dysfunctions in this regard, but I never got my invite to the Ambani wedding.




Totally with you on the economics of this. Just as people were flipping out about McDonald's being called "luxury dining" in the US recently, shopping at Walmart and on Amazon is going to be "luxury shopping".

Hell, maybe even Temu....

Food is something I'm less concerned with as a financial impact, because consumers will wince at the first signs. Which is why I think any immigrant expulsion is going to immediately blow up in everyone's faces in lower labor supply and hence much higher labor prices for food, restaurants, and construction.

Food imports are also going to hit the U.S. seasonally, like people used to buy groceries. So anybody who wants strawberries in November is gonna get bent over.

I still don't get the drilling thing. For one, domestic drilling is by international corporates whose shareholders want them to sell to the highest bidder... not just to Americans at a friendly cheapskate discount. For another, America is not only pumping more oil than any nation has in history, for the first time since the 1950s domestic energy production has exceeded demand.

I saw the drill, baby, drill placards at the RNC, and I'm like, "Do they have no idea?" This year Biden was getting grief from the greens about the record levels of oil production.



Inflation was really high, but it's leveling off to normal. And it's a good guess that we'll see at least one rate drop this year. Still, people are going to want a pound of flesh to pay for their affront at a $5/pound chicken.

Though Reagan didn't face an assassination attempt until two months into his presidency. It wasn't pre-election.



The harder part for Trump now is he doesn't have the same leverage as in 2020 to call up Arizona and George and shake down election offices for votes.

Oddly, this might become one of the greatest legacies of Biden's one-off presidency.

The rich are worshipped in India as well, but in a different way. There is a general acceptance of the fact that the rich got rich by exploiting the poor and being extremely corrupt. They are worshipped because they have money and feared because they have politicians in their pockets. You'll see more common folks complaining about how the rich get away with shit (because they do) than you do in the US. People wouldn't give two shits if the billionaires get taxed more in India, like you would in the US. I have to say that is changing though. Mainly because of tech and the newly rich, new age tech bros. They are shouting like their silicon valley and wall street brethren on Twitter. The last generation of rich people like the Ambanis and Adanis quietly go about making their billions and rake in unimaginable amounts of wealth. The newer generation of entrepreneurs like Bhavish Aggarwal, Kunal Shah and the ilk cannot go a day without given out random, unsolicited pearls of wisdom on their Twitter feed. And podcasts, hundreds of podcasts. When do they get work done, I have no idea.

 

[swag]

I
These are what they failed to see:

Though 538 is pretty worthless these days. Even Nate Silver kinda dissed on it.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1814062597152600198

The rich are worshipped in India as well, but in a different way. There is a general acceptance of the fact that the rich got rich by exploiting the poor and being extremely corrupt. They are worshipped because they have money and feared because they have politicians in their pockets. You'll see more common folks complaining about how the rich get away with shit (because they do) than you do in the US. People wouldn't give two shits if the billionaires get taxed more in India, like you would in the US. I have to say that is changing though. Mainly because of tech and the newly rich, new age tech bros. They are shouting like their silicon valley and wall street brethren on Twitter. The last generation of rich people like the Ambanis and Adanis quietly go about making their billions and rake in unimaginable amounts of wealth. The newer generation of entrepreneurs like Bhavish Aggarwal, Kunal Shah and the ilk cannot go a day without given out random, unsolicited pearls of wisdom on their Twitter feed. And podcasts, hundreds of podcasts. When do they get work done, I have no idea.

So it sounds like the Indians treat the rich like the Italians. And they'd both be correct.

Curious how the U.S. are mostly billionaire apologists.

Fascinating about the new generation of wealthy business types in India. It seems accessibility and social media tools have changed the way they play the game.

 

[Ronn]

Though 538 is pretty worthless these days. Even Nate Silver kinda dissed on it.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1814062597152600198



So it sounds like the Indians treat the rich like the Italians. And they'd both be correct.

Curious how the U.S. are mostly billionaire apologists.

Fascinating about the new generation of wealthy business types in India. It seems accessibility and social media tools have changed the way they play the game.

This is a PPP poll. 538 is only reporting it.

 

[Badass J Elkann]

So fox news line of attack on kamala Harris today was showing a compilation of her laughing and claiming that it would put voters off. I mean.... fucking really

 

[Bjerknes]

So just found out from someone that the Heritage Foundation, the Christian Fascist scumbags who run Project 2025, are in part funded by Russia. This isn't a surprise.

But also the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

That's good news because maybe if MAGA knows this they will reject it. They hate Bill Gates.

 

[Badass J Elkann]

So just found out from someone that the Heritage Foundation, the Christian Fascist scumbags who run Project 2025, are in part funded by Russia. This isn't a surprise.

But also the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

That's good news because maybe if MAGA knows this they will reject it. They hate Bill Gates.

but but but Trump says he knows nothing about project 2025, I mean how embarrassing that he continues to contradict himself when its well known he fully endorses it

all whilst Trumps blabbing on about Shark v Electrocution and how Elon Musk gives him 45 mill dollars a month

 

[GordoDeCentral]

but but but Trump says he knows nothing about project 2025, I mean how embarrassing that he continues to contradict himself when its well known he fully endorses it

all whilst Trumps blabbing on about Shark v Electrocution and how Elon Musk gives him 45 mill dollars a month

Yo, i edited the post, don't do that again

 

[Ronn]

According to AP Harris has enough delegates to secure the nomination