'Murica! (327 Viewers)

[abstract]

I don't follow US politics and I don't support either party, but just from reading the room, there's no way Trump is losing the election at this point.

He is a fucking meme after the assassination attempt. People are desperate with the cost of living crisis, not rational, and want to watch the world burn.

I'm willing to take bets.

It's a US presidential election you can't say ''there's no way this candidate is losing this election''
It's a toss up

also nobody really cares about the assassination attempt, because there was no political spin to it

 

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[IliveForJuve]

As swag said, most Americans and most people worldwide are unbelievably dumb to the point that they don't even have basic knowledge of economics, why inflation happens, etc., but they will happily believe any dumb explanation provided by populist politicians.

Trump is winning this.

 

[icemaη]

I think it might be a landslide victory for her.

Is she the best candidate? Probably not. But she's not a geriatric. For anyone under 60 that changes the entire perspective. Trump, aside from all the shit he has done in his life, is 78. He can bitch about energy and strength as long as he wants, deep down everyone knows that at 78, you're old.

You also don’t seem to acknowledge the fact that Kamala is a woman. This is a country that hasn’t elected a woman as president in their entire history while the rest of the world, including third world countries have. So she has to be 2x better than her opponent and make zero mistakes to be able to beat Trump. I’d be very, very surprised if she wins.

 

[swag]

As swag said, most Americans and most people worldwide are unbelievably dumb to the point that they don't even have basic knowledge of economics, why inflation happens, etc., but they will happily believe any dumb explanation provided by populist politicians.

Trump is winning this.

It's not even so much that they're dumb, but they're frustrated and don't have the patience for it and want easy answers.

To machine learning and AI engineers, this is essentially the equivalent of Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF in industry parlance) with a reward function weighted by human evaluators who pursue the wrong goals: simplicity over correctness.

It's basically the reason why ChatGPT and other AI chatbots can seem so confident in their answers while entirely bullsh*tting you with fabricated facts. It's because human feedback loops during model fine-tuning give a preference for confident answers as a false proxy for being more correct than the competing alternative examples.

TL;DR: A lot of people prefer simple, bullcrap answers over more complex and correct ones.

And yeah, I still think Trump will win.

 

[s4tch]

You also don’t seem to acknowledge the fact that Kamala is a woman. This is a country that hasn’t elected a woman as president in their entire history while the rest of the world, including third world countries have. So she has to be 2x better than her opponent and make zero mistakes to be able to beat Trump. I’d be very, very surprised if she wins.

yup

tl;dr: landslide victory <-> black woman

sorry but it is what it is, kamala has no realistic chance. if they hired robert downey jr they had a better shot

 

[Seven]

Majority? It's borderline. There are going to be 20% minimum who want the authoritarian answer no matter what. That ratio can rise higher in times of greater uncertainty or turbulence.

And clever authoritarian leaders try to paint situations that way. If you actually peeled back what's going on with the U.S. southern border, it's an immensely complicated mess. But if you say "Illegal immigrants = murderers, close border", that's a simple concept that allows people to believe in simple answers. Regardless of how ridiculously complicated it is to "close a border" with layers and layers of expected exceptions and conditionals. (I mean, are they really saying Americans cannot leave the country like they are East Germany before the Wall fell?)

And then there are the Silicon Valley billionaire grifters with enough financial insulation to ride out whatever happens to the proletariat as long as they can hedge the financial arbitrage of policy and regulation. They're not dumb at all. They're making calculated investments.

Don't confuse desire with intellect. The desire for gross oversimplification isn't an intellectual exercise. It has little to do with being smart or dumb.

It has everything to do with intelligence. The entire point of intelligence is that you question things. Even assuming things like immigration can have simple answers in the first place is dumb.

I'm sorry, but I just have a lot more faith in the American voters than you do.

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You also don’t seem to acknowledge the fact that Kamala is a woman. This is a country that hasn’t elected a woman as president in their entire history while the rest of the world, including third world countries have. So she has to be 2x better than her opponent and make zero mistakes to be able to beat Trump. I’d be very, very surprised if she wins.

This is not entirely fair on the US.

Plenty of countries have only done this in the last decade or so.

 

[swag]

It has everything to do with intelligence. The entire point of intelligence is that you question things. Even assuming things like immigration can have simple answers in the first place is dumb.

I'm sorry, but I just have a lot more faith in the American voters than you do.

But people don't vote on rationalizations and intelligence. They vote on emotion and gut-checks.

That's not a dis on Americans. That's just stating how we humans are wired.

 

[Osman]

I think it might be a landslide victory for her.

Is she the best candidate? Probably not. But she's not a geriatric. For anyone under 60 that changes the entire perspective. Trump, aside from all the shit he has done in his life, is 78. He can bitch about energy and strength as long as he wants, deep down everyone knows that at 78, you're old.

You need to chill on the trolling.

Trump is a corrupt sexual predator who is narcissistic, moronic and hopelessly unfit.


But the fact of the matter is he is waaaaay more popular then Kamala and most vet dems they can pit against him last minute in this current clusterfuck backwards campaign. They should done a dems preliminary so new candidate could grow a base. Now it's too late.



You hung up on his age, for sure a minus, but what should be the dems battering ram is the fact he is a litteral criminal and what a red flag that should be. One of many.


But either way, she stands no chance whatsoever. Better odds then Sleepy Joe, but still clearly losing one.

 

[Seven]

You need to chill on the trolling.

Trump is a corrupt sexual predator who is narcissistic, moronic and hopelessly unfit.


But the fact of the matter is he is waaaaay more popular then Kamala and most vet dems they can pit against him last minute in this current clusterfuck backwards campaign. They should done a dems preliminary so new candidate could grow a base. Now it's too late.



You hung up on his age, for sure a minus, but what should be the dems battering ram is the fact he is a litteral criminal and what a red flag that should be. One of many.


But either way, she stands no chance whatsoever. Better odds then Sleepy Joe, but still clearly losing one.

I don't share the pessimism.

The people who voted for the Democrats because Trump is a morally and financially bankrupt rapist felon were already convinced. They should keep hammering down that message, but it's not going to win them that many extra votes.

That alone though would be enough to guarantee a win for the Democrats in my opinion. It's like the entire abortion issue. You can see the debate shift. Americans realise now that they really do need a right to abortion. Common sense will eventually prevail.

Besides that the GOP has rightly made age an issue. But Trump is ancient too. An entire generation of voters has only known presidential campaigns with him as the focal point. They're bored. But an 81 year old Biden was not enticing. A much younger Harris might be.


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[Seven]

But people don't vote on rationalizations and intelligence. They vote on emotion and gut-checks.

That's not a dis on Americans. That's just stating how we humans are wired.

Yes and emotions and gut-checks are slowly but surely turning against Trump.

Think about it. When was the last time you saw a normal person speak out in favour of Trump? It doesn't happen these days. The overarching sentiment is that he's a grifter and a sexual predator.

Just because 20% of the American population is batshit crazy that doesn't mean 80% is going to let it happen.

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[swag]

Yes and emotions and gut-checks are slowly but surely turning against Trump.

Think about it. When was the last time you saw a normal person speak out in favour of Trump? It doesn't happen these days. The overarching sentiment is that he's a grifter and a sexual predator.

Just because 20% of the American population is batshit crazy that doesn't mean 80% is going to let it happen.

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You bring up an interesting point. TBH, and I still think he will win, the only notables who have said good things about him lately were clearly in sycophantic favor-bartering mode. There's genuine adoration for Trump to conquer evil among his flock. But the real influencers seem to see him as their tool.

Which would explain JD Vance's complete 180. Nikki Haley too, except Trump treated her at the RNC like his daughter Tiffany.

 

[s4tch]

Yes and emotions and gut-checks are slowly but surely turning against Trump.

Think about it. When was the last time you saw a normal person speak out in favour of Trump? It doesn't happen these days. The overarching sentiment is that he's a grifter and a sexual predator.

Just because 20% of the American population is batshit crazy that doesn't mean 80% is going to let it happen.

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people live in their little information bubbles. musk has like 200m followers on twitter, and he openly supported trump after the shooting. that's enough for many, many people. and not saying that musk is a normal person, just saying that normal persons' opinions are weightless if their message doesn't even reach the target audience because of the information bubbles they created for themselves

trump wasn't convicted, he still was the same piece of shit when he was first elected and the 80% let it happen

 

[Oggy]

The bare fact that Trump is in the race for the president proves that everything is possible. And I agree, this election now it’s his to lose.

 

[icemaη]

It has everything to do with intelligence. The entire point of intelligence is that you question things. Even assuming things like immigration can have simple answers in the first place is dumb.

I'm sorry, but I just have a lot more faith in the American voters than you do.

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This is not entirely fair on the US.

Plenty of countries have only done this in the last decade or so.

I don’t disagree. However it does seem that there are plenty of people in the US who believe that a woman cannot be president just because she’s a woman. Maybe it’s the internet bubble that gives me that feeling but you will find people, including here on Tuz, who seem like entirely rational folks until they tell you that women are not fit to lead. I haven’t seen that in India for example, maybe because we already elected a woman PM long time ago.

 

[icemaη]

people live in their little information bubbles. musk has like 200m followers on twitter, and he openly supported trump after the shooting. that's enough for many, many people. and not saying that musk is a normal person, just saying that normal persons' opinions are weightless if their message doesn't even reach the target audience because of the information bubbles they created for themselves

trump wasn't convicted, he still was the same piece of shit when he was first elected and the 80% let it happen

The US gives demigod status to rich folks in a way that I can’t fully comprehend. I get it that they are successful, but most often than not they are held to a much lower standard because they have money. It’s a behaviour you expect in poor countries, not prosperous western countries.

 

[Bjerknes]

If Trump continues to push for eliminating income taxes, he will garner votes on that, too. Upper middle class and above would be the main beneficiaries of that (the more you make, the more you are taxed), so that would be pretty cool. I'd love to have a few more thousand each paycheck.

However, he says he will replace income taxes with larger tariffs on foreign goods. This is an inflationary nightmare considering we don't make anything here anymore. This will likely cause all sorts of price increases on various goods, especially those at big box stores like Walmart. Food prices will probably rise as well if those tariffs include imports from Mexico, and there is a SHIT ton of imports from Mexico (veggies and fruits, avocados, et cetera). I would hope those tariffs would not include food, but chances are they will, and Trump will probably use that as leverage on the border issue. It would definitely be a time to buy locally as much as possible and don't go to the garbage big box stores. This will of course hurt the poor and middle class again.

So basically, people will have more money, but inflation will probably remain rampant on everything apart from gas (since he will open up drilling, which is good), while the value of the dollar is raped again. The lower income people who love their Saturday mornings at Walmart will be fucked, but hey, they're stupid for shopping there anyway. The name of the game will be: buy local and buy stocks/commodities/crypto.

 

[Seven]

If Trump continues to push for eliminating income taxes, he will garner votes on that, too. Upper middle class and above would be the main beneficiaries of that (the more you make, the more you are taxed), so that would be pretty cool. I'd love to have a few more thousand each paycheck.

However, he says he will replace income taxes with larger tariffs on foreign goods. This is an inflationary nightmare considering we don't make anything here anymore. This will likely cause all sorts of price increases on various goods, especially those at big box stores like Walmart. Food prices will probably rise as well if those tariffs include imports from Mexico, and there is a SHIT ton of imports from Mexico (veggies and fruits, avocados, et cetera). I would hope those tariffs would not include food, but chances are they will, and Trump will probably use that as leverage on the border issue. It would definitely be a time to buy locally as much as possible and don't go to the garbage big box stores. This will of course hurt the poor and middle class again.

So basically, people will have more money, but inflation will probably remain rampant on everything apart from gas (since he will open up drilling, which is good), while the value of the dollar is raped again. The lower income people who love their Saturday mornings at Walmart will be fucked, but hey, they're stupid for shopping there anyway. The name of the game will be: buy local and buy stocks/commodities/crypto.

You're just going to end up paying more on healthcare and education for your children. There is nothing inherently wrong or evil about taxes. Quite the contrary in fact. The question should be: am I getting my money's worth?

This isn't just limited to getting healthcare and education yourself by the way. It's also about living in a safe society. If there are no income taxes, that means people with no jobs or poorly paying jobs will have nothing. People who haven nothing are dangerous, because they will try to get something one way or another. Maybe a couple of thousand extra month allows you to buy a big old wall for your house, I don't know. Or better yet, maybe you get to pay for living in a highly fortified compound. Then again, I suppose the couple of thousands in fee for protection are kind of like taxes in their very own way.

 

[Bjerknes]

You're just going to end up paying more on healthcare and education for your children. There is nothing inherently wrong or evil about taxes. Quite the contrary in fact. The question should be: am I getting my money's worth?

This isn't just limited to getting healthcare and education yourself by the way. It's also about living in a safe society. If there are no income taxes, that means people with no jobs or poorly paying jobs will have nothing. People who haven nothing are dangerous, because they will try to get something one way or another. Maybe a couple of thousand extra month allows you to buy a big old wall for your house, I don't know. Or better yet, maybe you get to pay for living in a highly fortified compound. Then again, I suppose the couple of thousands in fee for protection are kind of like taxes in their very own way.

Well yeah, we are already a dangerous country in some areas, so if they kill the income tax AND various social programs because of it, then that will be a problem. I don't think they are going to end all social programs. The problem will be funding them on the expected tariffs.

Education and healthcare is already way too expensive. I'm sure we import a lot of foreign medical goods, so hopefully the tariffs won't be applied to those sort of goods. I do recall Trump wants to go after big pharma on prices of meds and the like - not sure if anything good will come out of it.

Most of my friends don't have kids and I don't plan on having any either. But I wouldn't be surprised if they end up creating a social program for families based on the number of kids you have. It's yet another program that will probably go unfunded eventually, and that's all we need is another rent seeking scam to make the retards all procreate, so there's that.

 

[Badass J Elkann]

Trump has only ever reduced income tax for the rich. He doesn't give 2 shits about the average American, yet he's preying on their votes.

 

[Seven]

Trump has only ever reduced income tax for the rich. He doesn't give 2 shits about the average American, yet he's preying on their votes.

He doesn't and deep down most voters feel this in their gut. I bet even @Hust knows Trump doesn't care. When it comes down to it, that is going to make people question voting for him. And that's ignoring his crimes, rape cases, etc. ... If we look at what's actually at stake and the important issues here like climate, abortion, the Supreme Court, voting rights, ... the majority of Americans simply do not align with the Republicans.

I just don't see how Trump is going to win these elections. Everything points to him losing bigly.