Massimiliano Allegri (270 Viewers)

[Hist]

Last week we had the worst goals/xGoals ratio in the league. I’m sure this match made it worse.

We’d still be an unbalanced, mediocre team, and Allegri hasn’t helped matters so far this year with all his tinkering and insistence on fitting Rabiot into the starting XI so often, but we’d be up near top of the table with a proper finisher up front.

How does this look broken down by each of our forwards? I get the impression that Dybala shoots whenever he gets the ball and because they're from the edge of the box so many are blocked or fly over. Is that reflected in the data?

 

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[Post Ironic]

How does this look broken down by each of our forwards? I get the impression that Dybala shoots whenever he gets the ball and because they're from the edge of the box so many are blocked or fly over. Is that reflected in the data?

In xGoals? I mean wasn’t this the stat of choice for you and Nedved96 and others to bash Allegri in the past?

This is what I found on xGoals:

”Put simply, xGoals is the probability of any shot taken to result in a goal. It weighs up the difficulty of a chance by analysing a number of relevant factors to produce a probability figure (between 0 and 1) for whether a goal ought to have been scored from the given situation.”

So I would assume Dybala just blasting from away from the edge of the box isn’t too heavily weighted.

 

[MikeM]

How does this look broken down by each of our forwards? I get the impression that Dybala shoots whenever he gets the ball and because they're from the edge of the box so many are blocked or fly over. Is that reflected in the data?

Dybala usually outperforms it. I'm guessing it's because the xG from outside the box is very low but that's his specialty so he outperforms there. Morata has basically scored at his expected rate or a little below.

In 17-18, Dybala had 12.5 xG but scored 22 goals......

This is from a quick look at football reference, but their data only goes back about 3-4 years.

 

[Hist]

Dybala usually outperforms it. I'm guessing it's because the xG from outside the box is very low but that's his specialty so he outperforms there. Morata has basically scored at his expected rate or a little below.

In 17-18, Dybala had 12.5 xG but scored 22 goals......

This is from a quick look at football reference, but their data only goes back about 3-4 years.

That's a very interesting explanation. Thanks

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In xGoals? I mean wasn’t this the stat of choice for you and Nedved96 and others to bash Allegri in the past?

This is what I found on xGoals:



So I would assume Dybala just blasting from away from the edge of the box isn’t too heavily weighted.

So Dybala can't be inflating our expected goals at the moment because he outperforms it. That implies that the team as a whole are creating more than in previous seasons.
It looks like we are creating but not converting into goals, whereas past Allegri seasons it was the reverse, probably due to having clinical players like Ronaldo, and before that Higuain.

To your question about it being the stat of choice, its one data point but it doesn't tell the whole story. It only speaks to chance creation. It doesn't have to be one or the other. In an ideal world we should be having high xgoals and a high conversion rate. Allegri may be more adventurous going forward now than in the past because our front line is so wasteful and/or because he cant trust the midfield and defense to shut out the opposition the way they used to.

 

[Bianconero_Aus]

Last week we had the worst goals/xGoals ratio in the league. I’m sure this match made it worse.

We’d still be an unbalanced, mediocre team, and Allegri hasn’t helped matters so far this year with all his tinkering and insistence on fitting Rabiot into the starting XI so often, but we’d be up near top of the table with a proper finisher up front.

Like Ronaldo…

No idea why he was so against playing as a lone striker in a 4-2-3-1. He plays there for Portugal with no complaints.

 

[Juventinoo]

great job mister 4 2 3 1 looks nice with this team

 

[s4tch]

Dybala usually outperforms it. I'm guessing it's because the xG from outside the box is very low but that's his specialty so he outperforms there. Morata has basically scored at his expected rate or a little below.

In 17-18, Dybala had 12.5 xG but scored 22 goals......

This is from a quick look at football reference, but their data only goes back about 3-4 years.

understat have xg stats since '14/15:
https://understat.com/team/Juventus/2014

this season morata, chiesa and kulu should have scored more. we're 7 goals short of our xg which is horrendous, especially at this early into the season.

 

[U Picciriddu]

A bit disappointed, was the perfect game for some decent playing time for Soule or Kaio. Genoa missed a full squad, this was basically a Serie B side. Besides that good game.

 

[Amer]

We looked great, created a lot.

But I still doubt we can have a run of 5-6 victories in Serie A.

Somehow we always get a slap in the face from some random team. This team is just too complacent and lazy with pussy mentality most of the games.

 

[s4tch]

We looked great, created a lot.

But I still doubt we can have a run of 5-6 victories in Serie A.

Somehow we always get a slap in the face from some random team. This team is just too complacent and lazy with pussy mentality most of the games.

rabiot is out of the starting lineup even with snacks injured and with a formation that fits rabiot better, and pellegrini benched sandro too a few times lately. not that pellegrini is the better player, especially not in defense, but his intensity compared to sandro is not even close.

 

[MikeM]

understat have xg stats since '14/15:
https://understat.com/team/Juventus/2014

this season morata, chiesa and kulu should have scored more. we're 7 goals short of our xg which is horrendous, especially at this early into the season.

In the 6 yard box we have 7.9 xG and 3 goals.

Our two best formations by xG90 are 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3.

Our 4-4-2 is basically +0.5 xGD per 90 minutes but the 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 are both over +2.0 xGD per 90.

(not sure how accurate their formation classifications are).

 

[singus]

What the fuck is this xGoal bullshit?

Why are the throaters now obsessed with this shit, lol, what a ridiculous stat

 

[Strickland]

In the 6 yard box we have 7.9 xG and 3 goals.

Our two best formations by xG90 are 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3.

Our 4-4-2 is basically +0.5 xGD per 90 minutes but the 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 are both over +2.0 xGD per 90.

(not sure how accurate their formation classifications are).

4231 with Dybs as the "AM" is basically a 442 though. What really matters is whether the wingers are wingers or CMs.

 

[U Picciriddu]

What a dumb move.


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Im really annoyed by his decision to keep Morata on for so long and taking Pellegrini out. Yesterday was a walk in the park, that doesn’t happen very often nowadays for us so a missed opportunity for some good minutes for the youngsters. We don’t know how next games will go.

 

[il brutto]

What a dumb move.


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Im really annoyed by his decision to keep Morata on for so long and taking Pellegrini out. Yesterday was a walk in the park, that doesn’t happen very often nowadays for us so a missed opportunity for some good minutes for the youngsters. We don’t know how next games will go.

The game was 1-0 until the 82nd minute, Allegri didn't want to risk the result in a game where throughly dominated by having a player being sent off. It's a smart decision.

 

[U Picciriddu]

The game was 1-0 until the 82nd minute, Allegri didn't want to risk the result in a game where throughly dominated by having a player being sent off. It's a smart decision.

I’d agree if there was any indication of us losing points. Look to Genoa’s injury crisis, they barely had any starting player. As I said missed opportunity

 

[Mokku]

What the fuck is this xGoal bullshit?

Why are the throaters now obsessed with this shit, lol, what a ridiculous stat

Once upon a time, the number of goals scored was the most important stat but this is another needles layer of statistics. I'd take us winning with 0xG in the CL final with Sergio Ramos scoring an own goal for PSG. Good players score goals when given the opportunity, end of story.

 

[The Quazis]

I’d agree if there was any indication of us losing points. Look to Genoa’s injury crisis, they barely had any starting player. As I said missed opportunity

Personally, I didn't feel confident at all we were going to grasp three points before Dybala sealed it.

 

[pavluska]

I see certain members are now corralling around xG

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

I see certain members are now corralling around xG

@Juventino[RUS] used to get so much shit for that