Gulf Gusher Could Be Major Black Swan (2 Viewers)

[Bjerknes]

Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwater_horizon_secret_memo.html

_____________________________

I bet you that deep down, those who oppose offshore drilling are absolutely loving this.

This could be a major disaster for the Gulf. I can only imagine how much trouble this will cause the tourism industry down south, especially with all the rental properties in the area. Apparently there are already tons of cancelations coming in for summer plans.

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[Bjerknes]

Got this from a trading forum.

This just sounds like pure tin foil BS though. The fact he mentions God in it gives it away as well.

The Oil Drum

A reader who is an engineer of considerable experience says watch this one evolve carefully because it is destined to continue to grow and he shares this long (but worthy explanation why:

"Heard your mention of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and you (and most everyone else except maybe George Noory) are totally missing the boat on how big and bad of a disaster this is.

First fact, the original estimate was about 5,000 gallons of oil a day spilling into the ocean. Now they're saying 200,000 gallons a day. That's over a million gallons of crude oil a week!

I'm engineer with 25 years of experience. I've worked on some big projects with big machines. Maybe that's why this mess is so clear to me.

First, the BP platform was drilling for what they call deep oil. They go out where the ocean is about 5,000 feet deep and drill another 30,000 feet into the crust of the earth. This it right on the edge of what human technology can do. Well, this time they hit a pocket of oil at such high pressure that it burst all of their safety valves all the way up to the drilling rig and then caused the rig to explode and sink. Take a moment to grasp the import of that. The pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.

When the rig sank it flipped over and landed on top of the drill hole some 5,000 feet under the ocean.

Now they've got a hole in the ocean floor, 5,000 feet down with a wrecked oil drilling rig sitting on top of is spewing 200,000 barrels of oil a day into the ocean. Take a moment and consider that, will you!

First they have to get the oil rig off the hole to get at it in order to try to cap it. Do you know the level of effort it will take to move that wrecked oil rig, sitting under 5,000 feet of water? That operation alone would take years and hundreds of millions to accomplish. Then, how do you cap that hole in the muddy ocean floor? There just is no way. No way.

The only piece of human technology that might address this is a nuclear bomb. I'm not kidding. If they put a nuke down there in the right spot it might seal up the hole. Nothing short of that will work.

If we can't cap that hole that oil is going to destroy the oceans of the world. It only takes one quart of motor oil to make 250,000 gallons of ocean water toxic to wildlife. Are you starting to get the magnitude of this?

We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Imagine what happens if that oil keeps flowing until it destroys all life in the oceans of this planet. Who knows how big of a reservoir of oil is down there.

Not to mention that the oceans are critical to maintaining the proper oxygen level in the atmosphere for human life.

We're humped. Unless God steps in and fixes this. No human can. You can be sure of that.

 

[Bjerknes]

Tracking map:

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/gulf_of_mexico_oil_spill_anima.html

 

[Showdown25]

Christ... that animation. Wow..

Haven't really been able to keep up with the on goings because I'm vacationing in Italy atm but from what I've been hearing the containment boon is pretty useless now.

This is just atrocious.

 

[Bjerknes]

Oh shit, this wasn't light sweet Louisiana crude. It's heavy crude.

That is the worst.

With regard to the weather, the gulf will experience strong winds throughout the next two days, creating large waves making it impossible for crews to work on the gusher.

 

[Enron]

This is going to be abysmal for the gulf coast.

 

[JBF]

They tried to start a controlled fire but the weather let them down. This is getting worse with every passing day.

 

[Bjerknes]

Uh oh...

BP has suffered a setback in the installation of the containment dome. Hydrate build-up stalled placement of the containment dome over gushing oil. The BP executive of the dome said, "I would say it has failed."

http://m.cnn.com/primary/_CRxiGB-ip0OZmrh9q

I did not think the dome would work. This thing will go on gushing for at least another three months.

 

[Bjerknes]

Looking at what some experts say, there is a chance this thing will never be capped off, especially with the bed of methane hydrate down there. Apart from the heavy crude gushing into the Gulf, the leaking methane hydrate will cause even more problems due to its toxicity.

Disaster of epic proportions. Now I actually believe the theory it will spread up the East Coast.

 

[Fred]

This looks like the Ligue thread except the roles are reversed

 

[Bjerknes]

That I'm the only one following this?

Seems sort of strange, considering I hate Louisiana, Florida, et cetera. But even I wouldn't wish this on the Gulf.

 

[swag]

I think the only thing that can stop it now is Akhmedios. :analcanon:

 

[Max]

I think the big boys at BP and the other couple of corporations responsible for this should be lynched...for real. They should be handed over to the people who've been put out of work as a result of this and beaten to death. Why should a shrimp gatherer be forced into poverty and struggle to get by while some suit just shrugs his shoulders, modifies his company's budget and eats a hearty meal and sleeps in a secure home each night?

 

[Bjerknes]

Have all those nutrients break down the heavy crude. I like the idea, Greg.

Too bad people will be swimming in shit for the next 25 years though.

 

[swag]

I think we should have the Azzurri and the cast of Jersey Shore relocate there and soak up all the grease in their hair.

 

[Bjerknes]

I think the big boys at BP and the other couple of corporations responsible for this should be lynched...for real. They should be handed over to the people who've been put out of work as a result of this and beaten to death. Why should a shrimp gatherer be forced into poverty and struggle to get by while some suit just shrugs his shoulders, modifies his company's budget and eats a hearty meal and sleeps in a secure home each night?

If they really decided to drill through a layer of Methane Hydrate to set up this rig, then they must have wanted to destroy themselves as a corporation and the gulf.

Some engineer posted this on another forum.

Briefly, Methane Hydrate is an crystallized form of Methane that is held in a state of unstable equilibrium in many of the world's deep ocean beds. It is held in a state of "stability" in the deep oceans by the dual influences of both Low Temperature & High Pressure. There are billions of cf of the stuff embedded in deep ocean sediments. Anything that disturbs the equilibrium of temperature & pressure that is holding the bed in stability risks destabilizing and freeing the entire bed (due to pressure instabilty). Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas ... the release of a single large methane bed deposit into the ocean, and shortly thereafter into the atmosphere, would cause a no fooling planetary warming of multiple degrees in very short order.

 

[Bjerknes]

I think we should have the Azzurri and the cast of Jersey Shore relocate there and soak up all the grease in their hair.

Good call.

"PUT YOUR HEAD BACK IN THAT OILY WATER"

 

[Enron]

Apparently BP's back up plan is breaking the Sham Wow guy out of jail.

 

[Bjerknes]

I'd say BP's response to this hasn't been as lethargic and poor as some say. Drawing out plans on paper to contain this thing isn't the same as doing it in real life. But they will be demonized ferociously because they are a major firm and not even American.

But I don't like BP either. Seems to me they shouldn't have drilled in this location.

 

[Fred]

I think the big boys at BP and the other couple of corporations responsible for this should be lynched...for real. They should be handed over to the people who've been put out of work as a result of this and beaten to death. Why should a shrimp gatherer be forced into poverty and struggle to get by while some suit just shrugs his shoulders, modifies his company's budget and eats a hearty meal and sleeps in a secure home each night?

True

I think we should have the Azzurri and the cast of Jersey Shore relocate there and soak up all the grease in their hair.