I love the economic thinking and modeling of Simon Wardley ... he had an interesting summary recently about "the market" vs "the people" from a couple weeks ago:
Emphasis mine:
Emphasis mine:
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Global Financial Crisis (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dostoevsky
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One can only hope 
I doubt that's going to happen. Majority of small-mid sized businesses are taking a huge blow. Many businesses will just collapse over night. Over here we have some good companies who already can't handle it and are taking a pay cut + firing people. Too many jobs connected with the EU are collapsing, contracts are being lost and clauses being paid. Can't be sustained and there's no way it's gonna last for less than 1.5 more months. I still expect a full 24h lockdown, at least in my town, which would probably last for 10-14 days, and that hit is gonna be even worse than this.
I doubt that's going to happen. Majority of small-mid sized businesses are taking a huge blow. Many businesses will just collapse over night. Over here we have some good companies who already can't handle it and are taking a pay cut + firing people. Too many jobs connected with the EU are collapsing, contracts are being lost and clauses being paid. Can't be sustained and there's no way it's gonna last for less than 1.5 more months. I still expect a full 24h lockdown, at least in my town, which would probably last for 10-14 days, and that hit is gonna be even worse than this.
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... and back up 10% today. Now up another 5% in trading overnight. It's market manipulation. The price is really where oil should be, but US oil, the government, wall street banks, and even Trump want to push it higher. Personally, I want oil as low as possible, screw everybody else.
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I'm not really quite sure where he's going with all that. It sounds like he's taking the Chinese government's reporting on the virus -- and their supposed "collective" -- at face value. Then he goes on to say that the use of the terminology "China Virus" and one guy claiming old people should commit hari-kari for the "market" demonstrates the US is losing the image battle with China. I suppose that if the assumption is whatever China says is golden, then he's right.
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This is similar to what I was mentioning in the other thread regarding central banking @Post Ironic
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The Federal Reserve just announced another 2.3 trillion in loans and that they are going to buy junk bonds and junk ETF's in the open market. Then they say we have to do this in our "capitalist system". 
These fuckers are insane.
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That's just stupid. Why would we want to pay more for oil once everyone is back to work?
Answer: it supports shale and wall street banks. So who will end up being winners in all this?
These fuckers are insane.- - - Updated - - -
That's just stupid. Why would we want to pay more for oil once everyone is back to work?
Answer: it supports shale and wall street banks. So who will end up being winners in all this?
OP
The Federal Reserve just announced another 2.3 trillion in loans and that they are going to buy junk bonds and junk ETF's in the open market. Then they say we have to do this in our "capitalist system". These fuckers are insane.
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That's just stupid. Why would we want to pay more for oil once everyone is back to work?
Answer: it supports shale and wall street banks. So who will end up being winners in all this?
These fuckers are insane.- - - Updated - - -
That's just stupid. Why would we want to pay more for oil once everyone is back to work?
Answer: it supports shale and wall street banks. So who will end up being winners in all this?
Stock market moves usually precedes unemployment trends by 6 months during recessions, give it or take a few. But it is ridiculous to see these sort of rallies after each unemployment figure. Much of it is the Fed and banks propping it up.
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Possibly, but the Fed consists of unelected "officials" that are supposed to be an independent body from political persuasion, supposedly. They're like an independent treasury of bank. They are lawfully able to consult with the Secretary of the Treasury in some matters. It doesn't really matter what corpse they roll out in the White House, both parties request the same nonsense to prop up markets and then folks wonder why the bankers get rich and everyone else gets inflation in stuff they actually need. Biggest scam in the history of the world.
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Possibly, but the Fed consists of unelected "officials" that are supposed to be an independent body from political persuasion, supposedly. They're like an independent treasury of bank. They are lawfully able to consult with the Secretary of the Treasury in some matters. It doesn't really matter what corpse they roll out in the White House, both parties request the same nonsense to prop up markets and then folks wonder why the bankers get rich and everyone else gets inflation in stuff they actually need. Biggest scam in the history of the world.
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Great interview earlier today on CNBC. Not so much from the 'tard CNBC host, but Chamath gets it. There's no reason to have massive bailouts when you can have bankruptcies.
This host is such a fucking goon.
Chamath
This host is such a fucking goon.
Chamath
What you're saying makes sense. But the same guy came on another program later in the day and said he doesn't agree with Chamath. It's his opinion that nobody should be wiped out because of a virus. The problem is there are structural and other issues with some of the companies that makes their problems not only virus related. And this is "supposed" to be a free market, after all.
I'll see if I can find the other interview.
I'll see if I can find the other interview.
He wants to create the narrative that refuse to pay to help that 1% keep increasing the gap is the same as being wiped out.
They also are the same creating: why to do a lock down if people is going to keep dying anyway? because even when thousands are going to be die, millions are going to be save if we do it
If US keep saving companies at this rate every 10 years, I predict CEO's and Board's are going to be WAY better in the future, only conscious and calculated risk are going to be make
They also are the same creating: why to do a lock down if people is going to keep dying anyway? because even when thousands are going to be die, millions are going to be save if we do it
If US keep saving companies at this rate every 10 years, I predict CEO's and Board's are going to be WAY better in the future, only conscious and calculated risk are going to be make
In other words, stock markets usually bottom before unemployment peaks. The latter is a lagging indicator. Stocks are a measure of forward growth, so much of the unemployment rate is priced into stocks way before the bad news actually hits.
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Going to be very interesting next week. We are sitting at the 50% fibonacci retracement level and 50 day EMA on the S&P, so there will be tons of resistance here. If we fail hard at these levels that will be very bearish. But the Fed probably won't let that happen since they're buying everything.
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Going to be very interesting next week. We are sitting at the 50% fibonacci retracement level and 50 day EMA on the S&P, so there will be tons of resistance here. If we fail hard at these levels that will be very bearish. But the Fed probably won't let that happen since they're buying everything.
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