European affairs (26 Viewers)

[swag]

Long story short I recommend this video


Last huge protest was 24h Long to block the road. It hsppened 9n Monday. But each day people are going out.

I loved todays annoucement on how we are going to boycott big supermarkets on Friday due to very high prices and officially declared monopoly by several biggest chains. So we ain't gonna buy stuff there. Croatia did the same Last week I think and it was a 30% drop iirc. So yeah, we're going wild here.

Wild.

But maybe word hasn't gotten to Serbia yet that democracy sucks.

Good.

Overheating inflation one trade relationship at a time

 

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[s4tch]

Good.

good? for who?

 

[U Picciriddu]

good? for who?

For us. It’s a contradictory statement if you look to the short-term, because things might become more expensive. That isn’t the true problem if you ask me. We have a (transatlantic) alliance but not on equal terms. The USA outperforms us in every geopolitical parameter (economics, politics and military) and we’ve been happy to bend over for decades.

If we want a more independent Europe sadly it seems that it has to be via people we don’t align with, otherwise we would’ve made that decision already years ago. If you listen to the debates over the last months -lets say since November- you finally hear that Europe has to become more Trump/USA-resilient, therefore Trump’s decision on putting tariffs on EU goods might benefit us over time, it may open a window of opportunity to increase trade with other countries or simply invest more in the Union.

The same more or less goes for the military. Can’t live up to promises the Union made to Ukraine because we don’t have the producing capabilities, we need American protection as one of the most richest continents in the world. It’s embarrassing really. Someone who’s critical on NATO like Trump might force our bureaucrats hands to finally move things.

So as said, things may become more difficult in the coming years, but I see all of this as a opportunity to move a bit away from the US. The crazier he goes the stronger our reaction of diversifying should be.

- - - Updated - - -

Here’s a Politico article that translates my thoughts pretty well:

BRUSSELS — If Europe wants to avoid a trade war with Donald Trump, it has to buy more from the U.S., boost defense budgets and deregulate to make the EU economy stronger, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told POLITICO.
Tajani argues there's a deal to be made with the transactional U.S. president, recalling that he met Trump in 2017 when he was president of the European Parliament. “He was much more pragmatic than one could think,” said Tajani.
Trump is threatening to hammer America's rivals as well as its allies — ranging from Canada and Mexico to Colombia and Denmark — with tariffs to get them to fall in line with his demands. One way to dodge that bullet is to create "a virtuous climate" by purchasing more goods from the U.S., the Italian minister said.

One of Trump's perennial beefs is that the EU has a trade surplus with the U.S.
Trump in the White House is a "wake-up call" for Europe on everything from trade to defense, Tajani said.


The problem for Rome is that it doesn't have much credibility on military spending — a key metric for Trump, who has repeatedly threatened not to defend countries he feels are free-riding on the U.S.
Italy is spending 1.57 percent of GDP on defense, one of the lowest levels in NATO and well below the alliance target of at least 2 percent.
And that target set in 2014 will almost certainly be boosted later this year. Trump wants it to rise to 5 percent, a figure supported by Poland, Estonia and Lithuania. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said the new goal will be “north of 3 percent.”

“I’m in favor of spending 2 percent, but you must not force me to cut health care,” said Tajani, adding: "First we get to 2, then we talk about 3."
To spend more, Rome will need help from Brussels.

Italy wants the EU to exclude defense spending from the Stability and Growth Pact, which limits public debt to 60 percent of GDP and deficits to 3 percent. Italy meets neither marker. Its deficit is expected to fall below 3 percent only in 2026, and debt is expected to be 139 percent by that year.

Another way of boosting defense spending is to use EU resources. The bloc could use unspent cash from the €800 billion Covid recovery fund for defense, or issue joint debt — an idea Germany and other frugal countries oppose.
Tajani also mentioned using the European Stability Mechanism, a tool with a maximum lending capacity of €500 billion that eurozone governments created during the 2011-2012 euro crisis to support member countries.
Despite lagging on defense, Italy has access to Trump thanks to PM Giorgia Meloni, the only European leader invited to his Jan. 20 inauguration.

Tajani has already spoken to new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

They discussed Ukraine, with Tajani saying Rubio insisted the U.S. "won't give up on Ukraine.” Tajani also said the U.S. "must be present in Africa, in the Mediterranean."

Tajani downplayed the risk that Trump will follow through on his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark.
But the main takeaway from the new Trump era is that Europe must do more to stand up for itself, Tajani said. "We must accelerate a path to be stronger and complete the banking union, the single energy market, fiscal harmonization, European defense.”

“Europe must not be strong only in imposing rules, it must be strong politically and economically," he said.

 

[U Picciriddu]

 

[s4tch]

transparency in the eu is still unmatched. that should be obvious everywhere. too bad murica took an other direction

 

[Siamak]

transparency in the eu is still unmatched. that should be obvious everywhere. too bad murica took an other direction

 

[s4tch]

a bunch of independent journalists made a documentary about the wealth creation process of orbán's family. fidesz media was full of some alleged smear campaign against orbán financed by ukraine (!!!) already weeks ago. of course this is bullshit. but fidesz propaganda is actually making some effective pr for the documentary: it has over 1m views and was uploaded like yesterday lol

audio is hungarian but with proper english subtitles for those who are interested. the m.o. detailed in the documentary is pretty common basic corruption but the extent is shocking

 

[Scottish]

a bunch of independent journalists made a documentary about the wealth creation process of orbán's family. fidesz media was full of some alleged smear campaign against orbán financed by ukraine (!!!) already weeks ago. of course this is bullshit. but fidesz propaganda is actually making some effective pr for the documentary: it has over 1m views and was uploaded like yesterday lol

audio is hungarian but with proper english subtitles for those who are interested. the m.o. detailed in the documentary is pretty common basic corruption but the extent is shocking

Thanks for sharing, really informative and well-made.

I honestly don't know much about life under Orban. Besides the corruption, which I agree is not unusual except in the scale in this case, what are the hallmarks of his government? He's often included in lists of far-right world leaders. Is he? How extreme?

 

[s4tch]

I honestly don't know much about life under Orban. Besides the corruption, which I agree is not unusual except in the scale in this case, what are the hallmarks of his government? He's often included in lists of far-right world leaders. Is he? How extreme?

orbán has no principles. he knows one thing better than basically anyone else: counting votes. he understands people and understands what they will vote for, and that's the only thing that matters. in the 80s he started as a liberal, he had like 5% during the first elections, but he realized that there were too many parties on the left so he shifted right. he didn't give a shit about religion initially, but understood that rural people go to the church and it's important for them, so now he's a fake christian like trump. he understands that influencing people is very important: you don't have to commit election fraud if you brainwash people. so they made new textbooks for elementary schools, occupied every media they could, killed opposition's advertisements with laws, etc

living under him is like experiencing a soft dictatorship. you don't get beaten by cops if you protest against the government, but you get listed and won't be selected for jobs or public procurements if you run a business. you can build a successful business but be careful because some lawyer could call you anytime and offer you to buy out your company, and you'll better sell. if you don't, the tax authorities are guaranteed to pay you a visit next morning, or you'll lose your best clients within weeks. the tax policy is growth friendly, but won't do shit for you during a crisis. the minimum wage is barely enough to survive, but when you're well paid, you can live a normal life. crime rate is low, but there are 10% of gypsies living in extreme poverty. higher education is at a high level, but under state influence. healthcare is universal and free, but the public service is terrible so many turn to private providers, who are ironically the same doctors, doing a better job in a different office lol

it's a weird country. if you don't care about politics, freedom of speech and were healthy, you'd be pissed about some bad roads, maybe your wages and nothing else probably.

 

[Scottish]

orbán has no principles. he knows one thing better than basically anyone else: counting votes. he understands people and understands what they will vote for, and that's the only thing that matters. in the 80s he started as a liberal, he had like 5% during the first elections, but he realized that there were too many parties on the left so he shifted right. he didn't give a shit about religion initially, but understood that rural people go to the church and it's important for them, so now he's a fake christian like trump. he understands that influencing people is very important: you don't have to commit election fraud if you brainwash people. so they made new textbooks for elementary schools, occupied every media they could, killed opposition's advertisements with laws, etc

living under him is like experiencing a soft dictatorship. you don't get beaten by cops if you protest against the government, but you get listed and won't be selected for jobs or public procurements if you run a business. you can build a successful business but be careful because some lawyer could call you anytime and offer you to buy out your company, and you'll better sell. if you don't, the tax authorities are guaranteed to pay you a visit next morning, or you'll lose your best clients within weeks. the tax policy is growth friendly, but won't do shit for you during a crisis. the minimum wage is barely enough to survive, but when you're well paid, you can live a normal life. crime rate is low, but there are 10% of gypsies living in extreme poverty. higher education is at a high level, but under state influence. healthcare is universal and free, but the public service is terrible so many turn to private providers, who are ironically the same doctors, doing a better job in a different office lol

it's a weird country. if you don't care about politics, freedom of speech and were healthy, you'd be pissed about some bad roads, maybe your wages and nothing else probably.

Really interesting thanks for writing all that out. It seems like a scenario where there is a great deal of red flags but nothing really over the line in terms of truly mistreating a population like mass arbitrary incarceration or similar. People treating government like a business is a bad thing, and it'll be when it's threatened that they lash out.

Are people generally aware of the bias of the media sources they consume? Like do people know which headlines are funded from which direction and stuff like that? Does that impact how believable certain stories are for most?

 

[s4tch]

Really interesting thanks for writing all that out. It seems like a scenario where there is a great deal of red flags but nothing really over the line in terms of truly mistreating a population like mass arbitrary incarceration or similar. People treating government like a business is a bad thing, and it'll be when it's threatened that they lash out.

Are people generally aware of the bias of the media sources they consume? Like do people know which headlines are funded from which direction and stuff like that? Does that impact how believable certain stories are for most?

hungary has a population of ~9.6m within the country, out of them ~7.5m are eligible to vote. an other ~400k lives abroad and/or have citizenship so they can vote via letters (and those usually favor fidesz around 90% lol). fidesz has a stable ~2m voting base and that's usually enough to win the elections for them. before the last elections, they returned the personal income tax to all families raising at least 1 kid (lol) so they had ~3m votes, the opposition had ~2.4m, so with ~54% of the votes, they collected 68% of the seats

why is it important? because it's enough to influence ~half of the population with propaganda. rural hungary is poor and badly educated. they switch on the tv, select one of the free channels, and watch the news there. they might buy the local newspapers too. maybe open facebook for some daily news. and those are either ran by fidesz (out of the free channels that have a news program, only 1, rtl isn't under their influence) or flooded with governmental propaganda. pro fidesz think tanks, bloggers, podcasters have insane budgets, just like in the states. and you can guess what they are talking about:
- radical left takes money from soros!!!!1!
- bruxelles promotes the war!!1!! bruxelles sanctions cripple the economy, drive inflation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!
- ukraine is a corrupt country!!!1! they don't want the war to end, they are shooting at the russians, they don't let the gas/oil into the eu, bad bad ukraine
- trump is much better for the economy! he'll bring the peace with putin!!!!1!!
- fake news media doesn't let you know the truth!!!!!
- etc
- plus gossip, sports, tits

zero balance. not a word on russian aggression, zero, literally zero since the beginning of the invasion.

so either you deliberately want to select your sources or you're brainwashed into hating eu/ukraine within a few weeks

 

[Scottish]

hungary has a population of ~9.6m within the country, out of them ~7.5m are eligible to vote. an other ~400k lives abroad and/or have citizenship so they can vote via letters (and those usually favor fidesz around 90% lol). fidesz has a stable ~2m voting base and that's usually enough to win the elections for them. before the last elections, they returned the personal income tax to all families raising at least 1 kid (lol) so they had ~3m votes, the opposition had ~2.4m, so with ~54% of the votes, they collected 68% of the seats

why is it important? because it's enough to influence ~half of the population with propaganda. rural hungary is poor and badly educated. they switch on the tv, select one of the free channels, and watch the news there. they might buy the local newspapers too. maybe open facebook for some daily news. and those are either ran by fidesz (out of the free channels that have a news program, only 1, rtl isn't under their influence) or flooded with governmental propaganda. pro fidesz think tanks, bloggers, podcasters have insane budgets, just like in the states. and you can guess what they are talking about:
- radical left takes money from soros!!!!1!
- bruxelles promotes the war!!1!! bruxelles sanctions cripple the economy, drive inflation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!
- ukraine is a corrupt country!!!1! they don't want the war to end, they are shooting at the russians, they don't let the gas/oil into the eu, bad bad ukraine
- trump is much better for the economy! he'll bring the peace with putin!!!!1!!
- fake news media doesn't let you know the truth!!!!!
- etc
- plus gossip, sports, tits

zero balance. not a word on russian aggression, zero, literally zero since the beginning of the invasion.

so either you deliberately want to select your sources or you're brainwashed into hating eu/ukraine within a few weeks

Really clear picture you're describing. It's remarkable firstly how uniform the right wing media playbook is and has been for a century and secondly how effective it still is.

The cognitive dissonance in thinking the news media with the power to control the narrative is the one behind a paywall is...remarkable. At least in the UK that argument makes conceptual sense when it's aimed at the BBC.

What do you predict for the next decade or so for Hungarian politics?

 

[abstract]

 

[s4tch]

Really clear picture you're describing. It's remarkable firstly how uniform the right wing media playbook is and has been for a century and secondly how effective it still is.

The cognitive dissonance in thinking the news media with the power to control the narrative is the one behind a paywall is...remarkable. At least in the UK that argument makes conceptual sense when it's aimed at the BBC.

What do you predict for the next decade or so for Hungarian politics?

bbc and hungarian state owned media are at a totally different level though. bbc has their issues with pro-israel, too pc, beat around the bush stuff, ours is straight up propaganda. for starters, the director can be legally called pap "fake news" dániel and he cannot even sue because there's a supreme court decision confirming that he literally faked news. and orbán still named him the director of the hungarian bbc (mtva) AFTER the dude got sued for faking news and lost of course, because it was the fidesz propaganda machine that made him do that. and the position is a reward for his loyalty. (welcome to trump's america too: laws doesn't matter if you break them to support the supreme leader. see also j4ers' pardon.)

prediction is hard because there's a new kid on the block: former husband of the former secretary of justice who failed big time because of the presidential pardon of a pedophile apologist. (i prolly posted about it last year, speaks volumes about those fake christians.) so this dude had a comfortable position as the head of the student loan centre. he got the position because he was the husband of the secretary, then they got divorced, the guy - former friend of many fidesz big guns and a true connoisseur of the inner dynamics of both the party and the system - lost his position and wanted vengeance. first he started posting shit on some prominent fidesz people, including his former wife on facebook, and what started as a petty vengeance now looks like this:

grey line is "tisza", the new party, orange line is fidesz. we know how reliable polls can be but still, it's something.

so the future is unpredictable. if orbán stays then we're out of the eu in a few years, we turn into kazakhstan without the oil (relatively livable country without basic freedoms). with tisza, we might get rid of some of the russian influence and get closer to europe i guess. hard to tell really because the guy at the center of the new wave isn't a very strong character, he's just like any other fidesz sociopath who lost his place at the table.

 

[s4tch]

as we say, may trump shit a hedgehog

 

[s4tch]

that's bad, no other way to put it. thanks to our weak leaders and trumptards for enabling it.

if anyone had any doubts that trump is a russian agent then there you go.

 

[U Picciriddu]

Wake up Ursula, we needed this years ago

 

[U Picciriddu]

Who said that one of the side effects of Trump will be a less dependent and stronger Europe.

 

[s4tch]

Who said that one of the side effects of Trump will be a less dependent and stronger Europe.

man... don't even try to spin it that way

europe losing america as an ally is bad for both europe and america, it only benefits russia and china. same with canada btw. trump is making russia great again

 

[U Picciriddu]

man... don't even try to spin it that way

europe losing america as an ally is bad for both europe and america, it only benefits russia and china. same with canada btw. trump is making russia great again

I’ve said it many times and I stick to my statement.

If we took our own Defense serious we would’ve seen those investments already years ago. We reached a point this century where we blindly followed the US into their illegal invasion in Iraq, I highly suspect them of having a role in the Nord Stream pipelines aswel.

Its a situation we meet by force now but it’s time that Europe finally starts to take its independence serious.