Won't a defeat suit Italy more? That way they avoid Belgium and the winner of the group of death until the final.
If they finish second they get Russia/Denmark/Finland in the 1/8 finals, and probably Netherlands in the quarters.
The problem is they don't know who is winner of group F before (and that's important because I'd try to avoid France first and foremost) so they can't calculate. They still get runner up of that group (possibly France) so from current perspective it's equally difficult either side of the bracket. The difference is Belgium vs Netherlands, and winner group F vs runner up group F. Being in group A is bad for calculations imo