Two of the black teams is what you mean i guess

Yes, Villareal not to be 4th and then all we need is two of Lyon, Sporting, Arsenal, Shakhtar, and if there is God Milan too, to play against eachother in the qualifiers.
And since there will be only 10 teams in that last round, if 4 or 5 of the teams are the teams i mentioned above then there is a huuuuuuuge possibility that two of them will play eachother.
And even if they don't play eachother, there is still a chance that some other team (Stuttgart, Fiorentina etc) will disqualify one of these teams in the qualifiers.
I'm pretty sure that we'll make pot 2 in the end. It will take a lot of bad luck to end in pot 3.