Earthquake to hit LA? (1 Viewer)

gray

Senior Member
Moderator
Apr 22, 2003
30,093
#1
Quake to hit LA 'by Sept 5'
April 15, 2004 - 2:13PM


A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will hit southern California by September 5.

Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometre area of southern California by September 5.

The team at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics accurately predicted a 6.5-magnitude quake in central California last December as well as an 8.1-magnitude temblor that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September.

"Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists," said Keilis-Borok, 82.

"It is not impossible.

"We have made a major breakthrough, discovering the possibility of making predictions months ahead of time, instead of years, as in previously known methods."

If accurate, the prediction method would be critical in an area like California, which is criss-crossed by fault lines that have spawned devastating quakes over the years including ones which ravaged San Francisco in 1989 and Los Angeles in 1994.

That has given credence to his research, which was endorsed by a state panel, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, earlier this month.

"Even two years back it was practically a dirty word to say earthquake prediction," said Nancy Sauer, an organiser of the annual conference of the Seismological Society of America which began yesterday in Palm Springs.

The UCLA team - made up of US, Japanese, Canadian, European and Russian experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety - says it has developed algorithms to detect earthquake patterns.

The experts predicted in June an earthquake measuring 6.4 or higher would strike within nine months in a 496-kilometre region of central California, including San Simeon, where a 6.5-magnitude temblor struck December 22, killing two people.

In July, they said they predicted a magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in a region that included Hokkaido by December 28. The September 25 quake fell within that period.

Now they predict a major quake will hit an area that stretches across desert regions to the east of Los Angeles, home to around nine million people, including the Mojave desert and the resort town of Palm Springs, which lies near the notorious San Andreas fault.

That is where experts began gathering for the Seismological Society of America conference that looks sure to be dominated by passionate discussion of Keilis-Borok's prediction method.

"There is something going on," Sauer told the Desert Sun newspaper in Palm Springs. "People are at least willing to entertain the idea. It is not seen so much as junk science now."

Another seismic expert, University of Oregon professor Ray Weldon, was scheduled to present findings to the conference that appear to support Keilis-Borok's research by saying the San Andreas fault is about to enter a new and violent period of shaking.

The data, according to the Desert Sun, was gathered over 18 years around the famed fault, showing it is under high levels of stress.

"You could consider that support (for Keilis-Borok's research)," Weldon was quoted as saying. "But I dont lend any insight or support to a window of time."

But researchers still point to the fact that the science of earthquake prediction has been notoriously inaccurate and the geographic area targeted by the UCLA team for an imminent quake is very large.

"It is not specific," said Susan Hough, a seismologist for the US Geological Survey based in Pasadena, near Los Angeles. "They've made three predictions and two of them have been borne out."

Keilis-Borok himself acknowledged the caution expressed by some of his colleagues. "Application of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory is often counter-intuitive, so acceptance by some research teams will take time."

But if his latest prediction that the earth will move in the area around Los Angeles within the next five months proves accurate, his research could end up saving lives and transforming seismology.
 

Zlatan

Senior Member
Jun 9, 2003
23,031
#5
An earthquake in LA??? :eek:


Aaaah, what else is new? ;)


A lot of things will be shaking on the LA beaches, if you know what I mean. Anyways, Mitch has earthquake experience ;)
 

Lilianna

Senior Member
Apr 3, 2003
15,969
#9
i had watched a film,earthquake in NY.

cool film.

but i hope this will not happen to LA.
i love very much america,and i wouldn't like smg like this to happen...no way!
 

Slagathor

Bedpan racing champion
Jul 25, 2001
22,708
#11
Graham, what is it with you and the dooms day threads man? First the one where Venice was sinking, now this...I mean, put away that Bible already! :D
 

Slagathor

Bedpan racing champion
Jul 25, 2001
22,708
#13
I thought you did yeah :undecide:

And about the end times. Bit relative. I mean, they've been saying that for two thousand years now. Wouldn't trust whomever wrote that to do my bookkeeping..!
 
OP
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gray

gray

Senior Member
Moderator
Apr 22, 2003
30,093
#14
It's not a "the world will end in 10 years" end times.

Nobody can deny though that the world is getting more fscked and the signs are there.

btw Park won a penalty against Newcastle :thumb: Not that it made a difference :(
 

Slagathor

Bedpan racing champion
Jul 25, 2001
22,708
#15
++ [ originally posted by Graham ] ++
It's not a "the world will end in 10 years" end times.

Nobody can deny though that the world is getting more fscked and the signs are there.
Hardly, there are much less wars going on right now then there were roughly a century ago. Democracy and peace are spreading, stability is reaching more and more places. Just look at how Eastern Europe has developed! They are about to join the EU on May 1st!

btw Park won a penalty against Newcastle :thumb: Not that it made a difference :(
Yeah good stuff. I hate how it would only have taken one more goal to take them through. So close yet so far :(
 
OP
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gray

gray

Senior Member
Moderator
Apr 22, 2003
30,093
#16
++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
Hardly, there are much less wars going on right now then there were roughly a century ago. Democracy and peace are spreading, stability is reaching more and more places. Just look at how Eastern Europe has developed! They are about to join the EU on May 1st!
Sure, you can say that we're getting more 'civilised' and there's less wars, but that's because more territories have been settled etc. (that was really poor wording) In terms of morality and the human psyche, i'd say we're going downhill

++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
Yeah good stuff. I hate how it would only have taken one more goal to take them through. So close yet so far :(
Yeah, a real pity for them :down: You could kind of see it coming though, without Faber, Ooijer, Lucius, Hofland and Robben
 

Slagathor

Bedpan racing champion
Jul 25, 2001
22,708
#17
++ [ originally posted by Graham ] ++
Sure, you can say that we're getting more 'civilised' and there's less wars, but that's because more territories have been settled etc. (that was really poor wording) In terms of morality and the human psyche, i'd say we're going downhill
How would you know? Every generation people say that, its extremely subjective and besides I think you're wrong. People get more individualistic, that's not necessarily wrong. They may not just start a conversation with you on the tram or bus but if you ask them something (at least in NL) they'll be more than happy to respond and help you out.

But I digress. Just want to add that, in for example the '50s, people were a lot more 'social' but there was also a great deal of social control. You couldn't do anything without being judged by society or at least the surrounding community. Nowadays people are more tolerant to others in that they don't really care if you wash your car or not (just naming something).

Yeah, a real pity for them :down: You could kind of see it coming though, without Faber, Ooijer, Lucius, Hofland and Robben
Yeah :(
 
Jul 12, 2002
5,666
#19
++ [ originally posted by Zlatan ] ++
6.5 isnt all that bad :undecide:


We had a 4.5 here in Sarajeve two weeks ago :undecide:
That's the thing about the Ritcher scale, though. For every whole number that you go up on the Ritcher scale the magnitude of the earthquake increases by ten times. So, a 4.5 may not be that bad, but imagine an earthquake twenty times that intensity.
 

KB824

Senior Member
Sep 16, 2003
31,538
#20
++ [ originally posted by Ian ] ++


That's the thing about the Ritcher scale, though. For every whole number that you go up on the Ritcher scale the magnitude of the earthquake increases by ten times. So, a 4.5 may not be that bad, but imagine an earthquake twenty times that intensity.
In the 2nd largest Metropolitan area in the Unites States, no less.
 

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