His best chance was getting it over Modric indeed. It will be tough to get this trophy with us IMO, he wont score the type of volume of goals he used to score, even if he remains super clutch and scores alot in CL, so that will drag his chances down. And he was winning this award over Messi for few years because he was winning CLs nonstop. Another thing thats unlikely to happen with this Juve...
For this year his best chance for the award is how much they value the Nations league thing, I didnt even watch it, so I dont value it really, but its the main international competition of the year for Europe, and apparently Ronaldo was great there (tho Bernardo Silva was chosen mvp of the competion).
Either way, strong year for Van Dijk, but IMO he should be behind both Messi and Ronaldo in the podium (not that 2nd or 3rd places really matter), and he SHOULD NOT win it IMO. Would be silly...