Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (30 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bjerknes
- Start date
I read that, but didn't even register thats what he meant. I guess even I used to give IT more credit than he deserves 
Don't ask me - It's the be all and end all big scary number they're shilling to sell their jabs. 
@Post Ironic
lol, it took around 3 weeks for cases of Omicron to peak and go down in London and overall in UK. I'm a 100% certain that this is the end of the Pandemic. Omicron will give massive herd immunity and it will turn into another cold coronavirus.
Pretty sure I saw that cases dropped this week in Florida already, after rising every week since November. Florida doesn’t have a great testing program but that was also the case then. Pretty good news if things are already hitting the downward slope of the parabola.
100% with you on this being the end of the pandemic. Though I’m sure many governments and big pharma are gonna milk every last drop.
I am not 100% sure. People said that just before Delta. Then just before Omicron.
Yeah, endemic is the way to see things out and finally put fangs in the unvaxxed. But there's still a lot of fresh meat out there. And there's still a lot of immunocompromised people who are going to incubate 74 generations of Covid mutations like fruit flies on Viagra. And there isn't a guarantee that the fresh meat isn't going to incubate a more virulent strain that's less infectious.
Even if it is much more likely that we're going to see a Zika or an H5N1 slap us in the next several years than Covid will be of great concern again.
Yeah, endemic is the way to see things out and finally put fangs in the unvaxxed. But there's still a lot of fresh meat out there. And there's still a lot of immunocompromised people who are going to incubate 74 generations of Covid mutations like fruit flies on Viagra. And there isn't a guarantee that the fresh meat isn't going to incubate a more virulent strain that's less infectious.
Even if it is much more likely that we're going to see a Zika or an H5N1 slap us in the next several years than Covid will be of great concern again.
The two main differences between Delta and Omicron are the reason why it looks like the pandemic is over.
1st - Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta. Many experts are comparing it with Measles which is the most transmissible virus known so far.
2nd - Omicron looks far less severe which makes it unlikely to mutate one day into something terrible. After all you are not afraid of mutations from the other four coronaviruses of the cold, right?
So, even if there is a new variant it has to 1) be more infectious than Omicron 2) more dangerous than Omicron and 3) to have the capability to evade the immunity given by the previous infections from Omicron.
That's very unlikely.
1st - Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta. Many experts are comparing it with Measles which is the most transmissible virus known so far.
2nd - Omicron looks far less severe which makes it unlikely to mutate one day into something terrible. After all you are not afraid of mutations from the other four coronaviruses of the cold, right?
So, even if there is a new variant it has to 1) be more infectious than Omicron 2) more dangerous than Omicron and 3) to have the capability to evade the immunity given by the previous infections from Omicron.
That's very unlikely.
So you're drawing a straight line between two data points. What am I missing here?
You forget that large sections of the world are still fighting Delta. And new mutations are brewing from that.
And even if you get Omicron, that doesn't mean Delta stops circulating. Viruses don't play a winner-takes-all strategy in propagation between strains as if they are in direct competition. Delta arose from relatively weaker strains of Covid... so it's not impossible.
You forget that large sections of the world are still fighting Delta. And new mutations are brewing from that.
And even if you get Omicron, that doesn't mean Delta stops circulating. Viruses don't play a winner-takes-all strategy in propagation between strains as if they are in direct competition. Delta arose from relatively weaker strains of Covid... so it's not impossible.
Well, my only worry was that Omicron doesn't give immunity vs Delta and other variants, but so far the data shows that luckily it does give immunity.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1
Second paper shows that previous infection with Delta and vaccination give immune protection vs Omicron. And most likely Omicron infection give immune protection vs Delta. The first paper shows that Omicron is displacing Delta in Denmark.
The problem with your logic is that Delta mutations must provide a new strain that is more transmissible than Omicron. This is basically impossible because Omicron is coming from another evolutionary strain of the Covid virus tree. It's multiple times more transmissible than the Delta variants. In a month or so Omicron will be the dominant variant all over the world and it will give immunity vs the other strains too. Not only that but it will suffocate the other variants.
Here's the evolutionary tree of Omicron.
As you can see it's completely different than the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Only from the branch of Omicron could be another strain as infectious. And the new strain from the Omicron branch should also be more lethal and capable of evading the natural immunity from previous infections... It's next to impossible.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1
Second paper shows that previous infection with Delta and vaccination give immune protection vs Omicron. And most likely Omicron infection give immune protection vs Delta. The first paper shows that Omicron is displacing Delta in Denmark.
The problem with your logic is that Delta mutations must provide a new strain that is more transmissible than Omicron. This is basically impossible because Omicron is coming from another evolutionary strain of the Covid virus tree. It's multiple times more transmissible than the Delta variants. In a month or so Omicron will be the dominant variant all over the world and it will give immunity vs the other strains too. Not only that but it will suffocate the other variants.
Here's the evolutionary tree of Omicron.
As you can see it's completely different than the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta. Only from the branch of Omicron could be another strain as infectious. And the new strain from the Omicron branch should also be more lethal and capable of evading the natural immunity from previous infections... It's next to impossible.
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More and more good news. We're basically entering the endemic phase.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-me...il&utm_term=0_2e166c1fc1-57cd25901b-536960754
Great graph that shows cases vs hospitalizations, patients on ventilation and deaths. For example cases in Germany are skyrocketing but hospitalizations, deaths and patients on ventilation are going down. Amazing.
I like working from home.
