Meh let people guess away

.
Since someone was asking, the probability (P)
≈ 0,0095 to get the correct draw (not considering home and away teams) and P
≈ 0,14 to get the team "you want" for the quarter.
Draw:
Round 1) 1/7
Round 2) 1/5
Round 3) 1/3
Round 4) 1/1
Round 1 the drawn team has 7 other teams as possible opponents, round 2 it has 5 different possible opponents and so on.
So...to recap P = (1/7) * (1/5) * (1/3) * 1/1) = 1/105
≈ 0,0095 so it's just below one percent. There are with other words 105 different outcomes.
Now, the 1/16 draw before was a bit more complex, not because of the number of teams of course but since you can't draw teams from your own league so you need to use a
rook polynomial for that.