I don't get these probabilities, if we are first out of the pot then we have 1/5 chance of getting Madrid. If we're second to last then it's 1/2 getting each of the remaining teams.
They're practicing getting those balls hot and cold for the draw.
Not really. For example, we only have 5 possible draws (because Atalanta and Napoli finished 2nd), but PSG for example has 6 possible draws (Real Madrid and Dortmund not possible), Leipzig can face 7 different teams etc.. If Inter would have finished 1st in their group (lol), Napoli and Atalanta would both have a higher probability of facing Chelsea or Leipzig since both inter and Juve couldn't draw them (thus lowering their number of possible opponents). Shitty explanation, but it all has to do with probability, not taking just the probability of 1 team into consideration but all of them.