http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_Italian_football_scandal
The first degree (harshest initial) charge to Siena, his then club, is €50,000. Carobbio himself is facing a lower-end ban of 1 year 8 months, in contrast to many who faced 2-5 years. Amongst all of these individuals, even those facing long bans, only 2 out of the 30 currently heard have been punished. The rest were dismissed.
If Carobbio is plea-bargaining then he will probably be punished to some extent, but it doesn't mean he is not lying or misunderstood. The odds don't point towards anything happening to Conte, it would be a fine at the absolute worst based on how the second investigation has gone so far.