Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,234
Hmm, it loads for me.

The Big One is Coming?
Holy Grails | June 18th, 2009
Dave Goodboy alerted me to a press release that came across his desk today. An excerpt:
Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 — Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. “Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!” Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.
Neely might be right or he might be wrong, but regardless of what might happen in the future if you have a plan predictions are not needed.
 

Raz

Senior Member
Nov 20, 2005
12,218
Interesting, it doesn't load to me. Haven't encountered consorenship in my country yet, so i don't think this is the case.

Thought the article was going to be more understandable. Anyway, thanks for posting it.

Will go out in a few minutes to play some football, was waiting all day for it.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,234
Interesting, it doesn't load to me. Haven't encountered consorenship in my country yet, so i don't think this is the case.

Thought the article was going to be more understandable. Anyway, thanks for posting it.

Will go out in a few minutes to play some football, was waiting all day for it.
Meh, just a lot of technical analysis jargon. Basically, it means that stocks around the globe will be going lower by the end of the year and a lot of economic hardship will continue.
 

Raz

Senior Member
Nov 20, 2005
12,218
Meh, just a lot of technical analysis jargon. Basically, it means that stocks around the globe will be going lower by the end of the year and a lot of economic hardship will continue.
Do you think this prediction will come true? And how long do you think we will be in this mess and when do we really will start go back up? I mean when will the long term rise of economics begin?
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,234
Do you think this prediction will come true? And how long do you think we will be in this mess and when do we really will start go back up? I mean when will the long term rise of economics begin?
It really depends on whether we see inflation or deflation. Right now, with the way governments are acting, it seems that they are all expecting crippling debt deflation during the next year, which means asset prices like stocks and commodities will decrease in value. So yes, I think the prediction could very well come true.

I'm not sure about other countries, but the US seems to be heading for an "L"-type recession, meaning that our economy will be stagnant over the next few years, very much like it was under the Great Depression. The problem is, we've never had so much debt to repay as a country and individuals, so this could be even worse than the Great Depression. Time will tell.

Chances are, it will take the US and Europe years to recover and see some growth. Asian countries will do better, IMO.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,234
To you guys inflation would do good right? With all the dept you have it would be less to pay up?
Indeed, but the problem is that government-spurred inflation can be hard to control. The country could use a little inflation, but if it gets out of control, then the consumer will be destroyed through having to pay extremely high prices for everyday goods. That would probably be just as bad as serious deflation.

I'm not good with timing but chances are we'll have to deal with pretty bad inflation some time down the road.
 

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